HOW TO END THE WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AND PREVENT THE OUTBREAK OF WORLD WAR III
Fernando A.G. Alcoforado
PhD em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional
Fernando Alcoforado*
The aim of this article is to present a solution that can end the war between Russia and Ukraine, which is necessary given the escalation of the conflict between these two countries and between Russia and the United States and their European allies, who are using NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), a Western military alliance, to support Ukraine, which could result in the outbreak of World War III. In order to identify the solution or solutions that will help end the war between Russia and Ukraine, it is necessary to eliminate the fundamental causes of this war.
1. Causes of the war between Russia and Ukraine
It can be said that there are three causes of the war between Russia and Ukraine:
i) The military strategy of the United States to approach Russia's borders by incorporating into NATO the former socialist countries of Eastern Europe that are Russia's neighbors
ii) The interest of the United States' arms industry in the expansion of NATO to expand its arms sales to its member countries
iii) The Ukrainian government's quest to move away from Russia's area of economic and political influence and the desire to integrate into the European Union
1.1- The military strategy of the United States to approach Russia's borders by incorporating into NATO the former socialist countries of Eastern Europe that are Russia's neighbors
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine also involves the United States, the countries of the European Union and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), a Western military alliance that was formed after World War II, when the United States and its European allies joined forces on a military level to confront the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, a military alliance of the Soviet Union with the countries of the Eastern European socialists. With the end of the Soviet Union in 1989, the Warsaw Pact was dissolved, but NATO was maintained and expanded to meet the geopolitical interests of the United States with the incorporation of the countries that belonged to the Warsaw Pact, as well as with the recent accession of Finland and Sweden. It is worth noting that one of NATO's pillars is to guarantee the security of its member countries, which can occur diplomatically or with the use of military forces. NATO member countries provide part of their military contingent for possible actions of this magnitude, since the organization does not have its own military force.
During the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union until 1989, NATO had 16 countries: 1) Germany; 2) Belgium; 3) Canada; 4) Denmark; 5) Spain; 6) United States; 7) France; 8) Greece; 9) Netherlands; 10) Iceland; 11) Italy; 12) Luxembourg; 13) Norway; 14) Portugal; 15) Turkey; 16) United Kingdom. In order to meet the geopolitical interests of the United States and its arms industry, NATO expanded after the end of the Soviet Union in 1989, attracting in 1997 14 more countries that were part of the Eastern European socialist system, such as Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania. Figure 1 shows the European countries that joined NATO before 1997 and those that joined after 1997.
Figure 1 - NATO's approach to Russia's borders
With the end of the Soviet Union in 1989 and the Warsaw Pact, a military alliance of the socialist countries of Eastern Europe, NATO (the Western military alliance) expanded, starting with the Baltic Sea, crossing Central Europe, passing through the intervention in the Balkans (former Yugoslavia) and reaching Central Asia and Pakistan, expanding the borders of the Western military alliance under the leadership of the United States. Greater approximation of NATO member countries to the border with Russia would be completed with the incorporation of Ukraine into the Western military alliance, as desired by the United States, its allies in the European Union and the Ukrainian government. All this is part of the strategy of the United States and its European allies to get closer to the borders of Russia, which is considered, along with China, an enemy of the Western powers due to the purpose of the Russian rulers under the leadership of Vladimir Putin to make Russia once again have the same power as that exercised by the Soviet Union in the international political arena and also due to the military alliance concluded in 2000 between Russia and China. The expansion of NATO towards Russian borders is considered by the Russian rulers as the main external danger to Russia.
1.2- The interest of the US arms industry in expanding NATO to expand arms sales to member countries
It is no secret that there is a military-industrial complex in the United States that holds all US leaders hostage. Who is most interested in the armed conflict in Ukraine? There is no doubt that one of the major parties interested in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the US arms industry, which is expanding arms sales to NATO and supplying them to Ukraine. The US Congress voted on a bill called “Protect Ukraine” to supply arms to Ukraine. The same is happening with other NATO member countries. The question is: Even if well armed, would Ukraine be able to win the war with Russia? The answer is no because, in addition to its vast military superiority, Russia is an atomic power. Despite this, almost all European countries are buying weapons, military equipment and ammunition to confront Russia. The biggest beneficiary of arms sales is the US arms industry, which relies on the support of the US government to promote NATO expansion and finance Ukraine's arms purchases. It is no coincidence that the US arms industry is the largest in the world. Of the 10 largest arms manufacturers in the world, six are American, five of which are leaders in the world arms industry, as shown in the following table:
Table 1 - The largest arms manufacturers in the world
There is no doubt that the arms industry is sponsoring the war in Ukraine, as it has promoted other wars in the past, to make money. The record production of increasingly lethal and surgical weapons needs to be put to work in practice. With 102 wars under its belt, the United States is probably one of the countries most involved in military action in the world, which began with the annexation of Mexican lands and the conquest of the Panama Canal. It is no coincidence that the United States is one of the countries that most economically benefits from armed conflicts, since the largest arms exporters in the world are American. In addition to the sale of ammunition and weapons, the United States also monetizes through security contracts and military training, which leads many members of the US Congress to see wars as a way of generating jobs and money. Peace, for the United States, could cost it dearly. These facts lead many to question the real motivation of the United States in defending Ukraine, which has been in a state of tension with Russia for years. It is clear that, as long as there is a weapons industry in the world, wars will continue to proliferate across the planet. World peace will only happen when all countries disarm and cease manufacturing weapons.
Figure 2 shows the largest military spending in the world by country. The United States has the largest military spending in the world (39% of the total).
Figure 2 - The largest military spending in the world by country
It is important to highlight that the United States' military spending is largely a result of the fact that it has 865 military bases in around 130 countries around the world, with at least 76 military bases in Latin America and the Caribbean, that are fed by the North American arms industry, which is responsible for the production of 60% of the world's weapons.
1.3- The Ukrainian government's quest to distance itself from Russia's sphere of economic and political influence and its desire to join the European Union
The political crisis in Ukraine in 2013, with the intensification of protests, was the trigger for political instability that has marked the region for several years. The former Soviet Union, to which Ukrainian territory was linked, industrialized itself through structural integration involving all its republics, with the aim of ensuring greater territorial stability. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 with the end of the Soviet Union, Eastern European countries found themselves highly interdependent. Ukraine was commercially and economically dependent on Russia, especially because it supplied natural gas, the country's primary source of energy, and because it was the main buyer of numerous raw materials produced by the Ukrainian economy.
When the European Union proposed that Ukraine sign a free trade agreement in 2013, Russia, in return, offered a better economic deal and, according to some unconfirmed versions, if the Ukrainian government did not accept it, threatened to cut off the supply of natural gas and the purchase of Ukrainian products, in addition to imposing customs restrictions. This episode further exacerbated the differences between the two main Ukrainian political groups, the pro-Western and the pro-Russian. With the Ukrainian government's resistance to joining the cause of the protests to sign the free trade agreement with the European Union, the pro-Western activists began to demand the resignation of the country's president and prime minister, who were seen as the main people responsible for Russian influence on national decisions.
The Ukrainian government's decision not to sign the free trade agreement with the European Union was the trigger that gave rise to the violent political demonstrations in the country. Claiming that the protesters were using illegal methods and excessive violence during the demonstrations, the parliament passed a series of laws to crack down on them, mainly with police force. The height of tension in the country began on January 23, 2014, when five protesters died in a clash with the police, in addition to numerous injuries. On the same day, negotiations were held without success, which led to the invasion of several government offices in different regions of the country. The repressive measures were seriously criticized by the international community, especially after the deaths of protesters in January 2014.
On January 28, in order to reduce the momentum of the demonstrations, Prime Minister Mykola Arazov resigned. However, this strategy was ineffective because the opposition continued to protest, demanding the resignation of President Yanukovych, who, due to his inability to guarantee the country's political stability, was deposed by the parliament and replaced by Oleksander Turchinov as interim president until new presidential elections could be held. In addition, the Ukrainian parliament issued an arrest warrant for Yanukovych for "mass murder of civilians". Before disappearing from the Ukrainian political scene, Yanukovych stated that there was no revolution in Ukraine, but rather a coup d'état.
It is important to note that Ukraine is a country with a semi-presidential regime, meaning that the cabinet and national executive functions are divided between the president (who serves a five-year term) and the prime minister, in addition to the parliament having a more prominent influence. The deposed Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was a controversial figure in the country due to his pro-Russian stance, which made him an enemy of a powerful and influential "pro-Western" opposition, the same one that led much of the protests in the country. The 2014 Ukrainian presidential election was held on May 25, resulting in the election of Peter Poroshenko as President of Ukraine, who took office on June 7, 2014. On June 18, 2015, after defeating Poroshenko, Volodymyr Zelensky became President of Ukraine on May 20, 2019, where he remains to this day.
The result of the political crisis in Ukraine was the division of the country, with Crimea being incorporated into Russia through a plebiscite and the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. Faced with the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, Russia responded by intervening militarily in that country to prevent at all costs its incorporation into the Western military alliance led by the United States. Russia’s invasion began with dozens of missile strikes on cities across Ukraine before dawn on February 24, 2022. Russian ground troops advanced rapidly and within weeks controlled large areas of Ukraine and advanced to the suburbs of Kiev. Russian forces shelled Kharkiv and seized territory in the east and south as far as Kherson and surrounded the port city of Mariupol.
The political crisis in Ukraine in 2013, with the intensification of protests, was the trigger for political instability that has marked the region for several years. The former Soviet Union, to which Ukrainian territory was linked, industrialized itself through structural integration involving all its republics, with the aim of ensuring greater territorial stability. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 with the end of the Soviet Union, Eastern European countries found themselves highly interdependent. Ukraine was commercially and economically dependent on Russia, especially because it supplied natural gas, the country's primary source of energy, and because it was the main buyer of numerous raw materials produced by the Ukrainian economy.
When the European Union proposed that Ukraine sign a free trade agreement in 2013, Russia, in return, offered a better economic deal and, according to some unconfirmed versions, if the Ukrainian government did not accept it, threatened to cut off the supply of natural gas and the purchase of Ukrainian products, in addition to imposing customs restrictions. This episode further exacerbated the differences between the two main Ukrainian political groups, the pro-Western and the pro-Russian. With the Ukrainian government's resistance to joining the cause of the protests to sign the free trade agreement with the European Union, the pro-Western activists began to demand the resignation of the country's president and prime minister, who were seen as the main people responsible for Russian influence on national decisions.
The Ukrainian government's decision not to sign the free trade agreement with the European Union was the trigger that gave rise to the violent political demonstrations in the country. Claiming that the protesters were using illegal methods and excessive violence during the demonstrations, the parliament passed a series of laws to crack down on them, mainly with police force. The height of tension in the country began on January 23, 2014, when five protesters died in a clash with the police, in addition to numerous injuries. On the same day, negotiations were held without success, which led to the invasion of several government offices in different regions of the country. The repressive measures were seriously criticized by the international community, especially after the deaths of protesters in January 2014.
On January 28, in order to reduce the momentum of the demonstrations, Prime Minister Mykola Arazov resigned. However, this strategy was ineffective because the opposition continued to protest, demanding the resignation of President Yanukovych, who, due to his inability to guarantee the country's political stability, was deposed by the parliament and replaced by Oleksander Turchinov as interim president until new presidential elections could be held. In addition, the Ukrainian parliament issued an arrest warrant for Yanukovych for "mass murder of civilians". Before disappearing from the Ukrainian political scene, Yanukovych stated that there was no revolution in Ukraine, but rather a coup d'état.
It is important to note that Ukraine is a country with a semi-presidential regime, meaning that the cabinet and national executive functions are divided between the president (who serves a five-year term) and the prime minister, in addition to the parliament having a more prominent influence. The deposed Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was a controversial figure in the country due to his pro-Russian stance, which made him an enemy of a powerful and influential "pro-Western" opposition, the same one that led much of the protests in the country. The 2014 Ukrainian presidential election was held on May 25, resulting in the election of Peter Poroshenko as President of Ukraine, who took office on June 7, 2014. On June 18, 2015, after defeating Poroshenko, Volodymyr Zelensky became President of Ukraine on May 20, 2019, where he remains to this day.
The result of the political crisis in Ukraine was the division of the country, with Crimea being incorporated into Russia through a plebiscite and the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. Faced with the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, Russia responded by intervening militarily in that country to prevent at all costs its incorporation into the Western military alliance led by the United States. Russia’s invasion began with dozens of missile strikes on cities across Ukraine before dawn on February 24, 2022. Russian ground troops advanced rapidly and within weeks controlled large areas of Ukraine and advanced to the suburbs of Kiev. Russian forces shelled Kharkiv and seized territory in the east and south as far as Kherson and surrounded the port city of Mariupol (Figure 3).
Figure 3 - Areas of Ukraine occupied by Russia
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Russia's military intervention in Ukraine has led the United States and the European Union countries to provide massive military support to Ukraine, through NATO, to defend itself militarily from Russia. Figure 3 shows the regions of Ukraine currently occupied militarily by Russia and which are constantly being attacked by the Ukrainian army, which is supported by NATO led by the United States and the countries of the European Union.
2. How to celebrate peace between Russia and Ukraine
Initial attempts to celebrate peace between the governments of Russia and Ukraine at the beginning of the war were unsuccessful and what we are seeing is an increase in the bloodshed of soldiers on both sides and of the Ukrainian civilian population, an increase in refugees and the destruction of Ukraine's infrastructure by Russian bombings. The initial attempt to conclude peace between Russia and Ukraine did not produce any progress because those who should negotiate it would be the governments of the United States and Russia because only these governments would have the capacity to eliminate the causes of the war, which are to prevent NATO from approaching Russia's borders, to stop the sale of weapons by the US arms industry to Ukraine and NATO member countries, and to meet Ukraine's desire to join the European Union. It is urgent to conclude a peace agreement between the United States and Russia to end the war in Ukraine because the war between Russia and Ukraine could evolve into a conflict that would spread throughout Europe and the world, turning into World War III. If this were to happen, it would pave the way for the involvement of the great military powers with unpredictable consequences, with the use of nuclear weapons.
Everyone needs to understand that the war in Ukraine is a scenario of the geopolitical dispute between Russia and the United States and not between Russia and Ukraine. On the one hand, we have the United States, which wants NATO's presence in Ukraine to serve its strategic and geopolitical interests, and on the other, we have Russia, which does not want NATO's presence in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine between Russia and the United States will only come to an end if the leaders of both countries reach an agreement on ending the conflict. The initial agreement between Russia and the United States could be Russia accepting a ceasefire in Ukraine on the condition that the United States and NATO stop providing military support to Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia. The final agreement would be for Russia to end its hostilities in Ukraine by liberating the occupied areas in that country and assuming the burden of rebuilding what was destroyed by the war on the condition that the United States and NATO abandon the countries of Eastern Europe and undertake to lift the economic and financial sanctions adopted against Russia.
A deal between Russia and the United States would be advantageous for Ukraine, Russia, the United States, Europe and the world. Ukraine would benefit from this agreement because it would end the suffering of its population, remove the military occupation of its territory by Russia, recover its sovereignty over the national territory occupied by Russia, with the exception of Crimea, which was incorporated into Russia by decision of its population based on a plebiscite, join the European Union and have the reconstruction of the country carried out by Russia. Russia would benefit from this agreement because it would remove the economic and financial sanctions adopted against it by the United States and its Western allies, abandon NATO's claim to Ukraine as a member country, and commit the United States and NATO to excluding 14 Eastern European countries (Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic). The United States would benefit from the agreement because it would no longer be destabilized by the increase in the public deficit and public debt resulting from the growing military spending on the war in Ukraine. Europe would benefit from the agreement because it would once again have access to Russian oil and natural gas supplies and its economy would no longer be threatened by destabilization. The world would benefit from the agreement because the threat of World War III, which could lead to the end of the human species, would disappear.
3. Conclusions
The facts of life show that the war between Russia and Ukraine means the continuation of the old world order in which conflicts of interest between the great powers have been resolved “manu-militare”, that is, by military means. For centuries, humanity has faced conflicts between the great powers that are not resolved through diplomatic means but rather by military means because we live in a world without global governance and without international law that is respected by all countries, especially by the great powers that seek to impose their will on a global level. Without the existence of a world Government and a world Parliament democratically elected by the world’s population, as well as the existence of a world Supreme Court, there is no way for international law to be effectively applied and respected by all countries. It is urgent for humanity to equip itself as soon as possible with the instruments necessary to build a world of peace.
Throughout the history of humanity, there have been three attempts to structure instruments aimed at building a world of peace. The first attempt was made in 1648 with the Treaty of Westphalia, which put an end to the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648), which marked the 17th century as one of the bloodiest in European history, with a series of treaties that ended the Thirty Years' War and also officially recognized the United Provinces (Holland) and the Swiss Confederation. The second attempt to structure instruments aimed at building a world of peace occurred with the creation of the League of Nations on January 10, 1920, in the ruins of World War I. The third attempt to structure instruments aimed at building a world of peace occurred with the creation of the UN (United Nations), which was founded in 1945 after World War II, and has been ineffective throughout its history, including in the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine and in the conflict between Jews and Palestinians. The UN has been a failure in building a world of peace.
The failure to build world peace with the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, with the League of Nations in 1920 and with the UN in 1945 demonstrate the urgency of restructuring the UN so that it can effectively govern the international system, enabling it to mediate international conflicts and ensure world peace. In this sense, the UN should be restructured to become a World Government whose objective would be to defend the general interests of the planet, ensure that each nation state respects the sovereignty of other countries and prevent the spread of global systemic risks. With this new configuration of the UN, the Security Council would be abolished and the General Assembly would be transformed into a World Parliament. The UN restructured as a World Government would avoid the empire of a single country as has occurred throughout the history of humanity and the anarchy of all countries as is currently the case.
With a World Government, a World Parliament and a World Supreme Court resulting from the restructuring of the UN, it will be possible to avoid wars and put an end to the bloodbath that has characterized the history of humanity. To be democratic, the world government should be elected by all the countries of the world and be representative of all the people of the world.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science, IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia and of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economics and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globaliza??o (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Doctoral thesis. Barcelona University, https://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globaliza??o e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporanea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, S?o Paulo, 2010), Amaz?nia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, S?o Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econ?mico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudan?a Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revolu??es Científicas, Econ?micas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Inven??o de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017),? Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associa??o Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade amea?ada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, S?o Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribui??o ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press,? Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chi?in?u, 2023), A revolu??o da educa??o necessária ao Brasil na era contemporanea (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2023), Como construir um mundo de paz, progresso e felicidade para toda a humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2024) and How to build a world of peace, progress and happiness for all humanity (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2024).