How drill-baby-drill affects to transport trends in 2025

The new year looks very interesting from the?transportation technology point of view. Some of the important 2025 trends in transportation are:

1. Transportation efficiency improvement

• Real-time modelling, monitoring and route planning (private control towers before they are automated)??
• Demand responsive transport and reduction of empty miles
• Vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-cloud-to-vehicle communication (V2X)

2. Faster computation (in all business areas not only in transportation)

• AI and quantum aided computation for sensor and device decision-making such as for example ADAS and autonomous driving
• AI and quantum aided computation for human decision-making (traffic management, industrial management)
• Closed and commercial data ecosystems (cars selling data for other cars)

3. Vehicle as a device

• Four separate SW platforms: vehicle-based technical data, OPS-ware for ADAS, play-ware from phone and meta-ware for metaverse
• Personalized vehicle (vehicle for me, vehicle for purpose)
• Vendible vehicle purpose data

4.??Accelerating battery development

• New chemical and material combinations such as for example solid-state sulfide-based batteries (mass production launches estimated to be in 2027–29)
• New architectures that enable more cells in smaller areas such as for example bipolar structures and nanotubes
• Radical re-thinking

5.? Alternative liquid fuels

• Non-fossil liquid fuels for multi-fuel combustion engines
• Liquid fuel production growth
• Recoil of oil (carbon reduction re-politicized)

The hybrid technology?as a mid-step solution has received a lot of attention from the durability and reliability point of view. The maintenance costs for the car owner are rising, because?the car includes both electric and combustion drive-trains. Repair professionals do not recommend HEVs and PHEVs because of their very expensive overhauls. The main risks are the technology which is set in unprotected places and the technology which is unused, here the combustion engine. When driven solely with electricity the unused areas are corroded.

Looking at the industrial side, the development of gasoline, diesel, renewable fuels, hybrid, electric, fuel cell and what not technologies is very expensive. Volkswagen has been exploring alternative uses for its German plants and planning to close factories. BP made a decision to cut 18 (75 %) of its hydrogen projects in Q3 2024 and abandon the goal to cut oil output. ?Drill-baby-drill will?plainly affect to automotive industry everywhere.

The final battle between burning fossils and storing electricity will give a couple of years more time for the old warrior (oil) to adjust the strategies (and gain profits). At the same time the young warrior (electricity) will receive a couple of years to develop lighter batteries for vehicles of all sizes.

This on-going battle gives clear market opportunities for connectivity solutions. Interestingly motorbikes will be competing for ADAS solutions similarly?to cars and duty vehicles. Motorbikes are good mobility solutions in big cities and connectivity is an effective way to increase security and decrease insurance costs. Think of mopeds, vespas and motorbikes saving lives by having real-time connections to other vehicles, cloud services and satellites. Think of motorbikes becoming a safe mobile solution for both long-ride motorists and city nomads.

Unfortunately, you cannot drive 88 miles per hour with a mini nuclear reactor powered vehicle yet. The way for new innovations is applied research, field testing, failures, success, and finally go-to-market. We live in a turbulent change period where the winds of yesterday and tomorrow mix together creating an uncertain atmosphere. Rely on science and push forward your industrial core technology, buy technology you don’t develop, and create innovations in open industrial ecosystems and jointly-funded programs.