How do you predict the impact of a project?

How do you tell if a project is impactful before you start it?

You can prioritize, strategize and whatever else "ize" all you want. But how do you know if something you are doing is impactful before you do it?

I honestly don't know the answer here and this was posed to me by a friend the other day while drinking a beer. It's a philosophical question which I'm not sure has an actual answer...

Think about this. The amount of research that's being produced at research institutions is expanding exponentially. However, the amount of impactful research being released is actually decreasing. Why?

There are some obvious answers in the field of academia because it doesn't, necessarily, matter what type of research you do. You are measured on the number of papers you put out. So you publish multiple papers which are less impactful and stick to what you know instead of taking more time to build an impactful idea or concept to test and publish.?

During the conversation it became apparent that this can be applied to any industry and any job. How do we know what we do is impactful. It seems the only way to measure the impact of something one has done has been to review it historically.?

In business though, we don't have the luxury of waiting 5-10 years, we need to know right away. My team member asked me this today. If developer 1 works on project A and takes 1 day to complete, but developer 2 works on project B and takes 2 weeks, which is more impactful??

You don't have enough information, right? That's how I felt. Do we ever have enough information though? Do we rely on our gut too much??

When evaluating a project I try to look at at Time, Money, Complexity, and Impact / Potential. The Impact / Potential is always the hardest because it's biased, it's not based on anything other than a "feeling".?

As an entrepreneur you do have to trust your gut, but it's not something that can be measured easily.?

The best thing you can do is define the potential you see vs. what other stakeholders see, use your team to give you an additional gut check. Define each metric you are measuring a project success on, especially when evaluating strategic initiatives.?

As a CRM consultant I'm faced with this all the time. Why should my clients invest in $20k, $30k, $40k custom CRM systems when they have no idea what the outcome is. It's the impact / potential they see that allows them to drive the decision.?

I don't have any ROI calculation for this. I can say that when company y did x their return was z. But every business is different and what worked for one, will not necessarily work for another. But it's not just about the monetary return because a properly set up CRM is also intangible, the team is happier, management becomes easier, having access to better reporting can help you make better decisions. There is a ton of intangibles and as much as I wish there was a formula for me to help my clients understand, there isn't.?

There is no way for me to help them predict the FULL impact of upgrading their CRM is going to make in their business. I know for a fact it will, especially over a period of 5 years.?

My advice to anyone going through this or having difficulty making these decisions is be sure you outline your VERY SPECIFIC success criteria. What does success of Project A vs. Project B look like.?

Once you can define the success metrics you should be able to apply your gut a little more effectively and make the decision on what will be most impactful to you and the business.

This is one way in which I use to predict the impact of a project before starting. It may not be the best way, but it's how I've been able to set myself up for success.