How do we get back to “Normal” ?

From big businesses, like Google and Apple, working together on enabling automation of device recognition to manage contact tracing, Red Bull, Dyson and McLaren working on ventilators, the fashion industry manufacturing PPE, Brewdog and LVMH making hand sanitizers, through to smaller 3D printed solutions and local deliveries by local businesses; everyone seems to be doing their part in coordinating the fight against this wretched situation.

The main priority now is to manage how we reopen businesses in all sectors, large locations and events, small coffee shops and restaurants through to retail stores. Personally, I am adamant that the only way we can do this quickly and efficiently is to manage the locations and the numbers of people visiting them. This is not a new mechanism. There are many environments where we already ‘Book’ an appointment to go to locations, from dentist to doctors, to nails and hair; there are lots and lots of situations where we always book to go to a location. 

Whilst fashion, for example, may not currently be a priority with the health crisis where it is, they are trying to consider the route back. But we can’t see any evidence of widespread thought on the reality of the situation. People per square foot (in-store), number of entrances. Though supermarkets are at the leading edge with this right now, it’s not coordinated, it's not driven by a formula that the public can understand and have trust in.

The facts of the formula, though directly unknown in places right now, will become clearer. Our thoughts are that, even now, we can develop the formula for understanding how to distance people and build trust in this formula by the public for it to be implemented.

So, we know the formula will need to understand social distancing rules, number of entrances and exits, available booking spaces, average time spent by customers.

Are stores making layout plans to accommodate potential aisle spacing issues that may come up? It seems that this is going to impact on the capacity allowance for a site so it would demand a % ratio of calculated capacity.

Inputs

Size of store (sq. Ft.) = store Ft

Staff on Hand = staff count / or Expected staff per square ft 

^ (Industry figure as input?)

Max people per sq. Ft = max.count Ft

Assumptions

Max.count FT- Based on 2m rule this would mean – 1 person per 43.05 sq./ft or available space

Floor available for people - 20% of retail space.

Expected staff per square ft - 1 staff per 160 sq./ft

Ratio of space to realistic capacity - 40% or 0.4 (What is realistic?)

Example

Est 80% of floor space is stock and retail POS.

A 4000 sq./ft Retail store would have 800 sq./ft of usable space therefore a max_capacity of 800/43.05 ~ 18 people.

This would rely on everyone being perfectly spaced throughout the store and does not accommodate staffing.

Expected staff per sq./ft would therefore be 800/160 = 5

Remaining customer capacity therefore = 13

At ratio of space to realistic capacity (could inspections provide a higher value?) = 5

So, a 4000 sq./ft space would have a basic maximum capacity of 5 customers at any one time in this formula scenario and with the assumptions that are made. The fact remains though, regardless of these inputs, the max number of customers in store at any time is sure to be a limit the government considers to help build trust.

Thoughts

This formula could scale but the real control comes from the ratio of space to realistic capacity being set at a safe level and the way for that being improved is clear. Not only to the adopters of the formula but to the public. A retail store may publish a sign saying “0.6 capacity” letting customers know they’ve taken care to enforce policies that allowed them to increase their capacity safely.

The ratio could be impacted by the number of exits and entrances and other weighting which perhaps the community can drive so that it's agreed by everyone and there is “buy-in”.

It remains a fact that stores will still suffer. A maximum capacity dictates that footfall at peak times will be reduced. It’s imperative to create a booking environment for at least off-peak access to stores in a controlled way. This is an opportunity for all customer facing venues to personalise their service with purpose for the first time. 

Potential for Assessments

It’s expected that many retailers would claim they can handle more capacity and the calculations are wrong. The authorities can stipulate surveyors to review and assess individual retail sites for capacity. This may, of course, result in a reduction in authorised capacity if issues are found but, again, would reinforce trust. 

Assessments could be aligned with business rates. The capacity of a store to service the community is really the basis of the value of retail space. In this sense the capacity formula basis could be related, while providing a route for retailers to reduce their business rates by improving their management of capacity. A better operating retail is good for the local area.

Depending on the length of enforcement annual assessments should be carried out and adjustments made as NHSX app profiling is available and could contribute to the Ratio.

Specific Industry Thoughts / Appendix

Example 1 – Retail Store (Fashion)

Normal retail hours resume with 30-minute slots for consumers to book throughout the day. Each slot would have a maximum number of people and would require pre-booking through the app as part of a subscription. Notifications are sent prior to booked time to remind the consumer, they then visit the store and queue management technology ensures they are streamlined into the store as soon as possible, without queuing. (Virtually not social distancing by using clever spacing technology)

Store countdowns to end of session are alerted on the consumer device.

Reporting provides enforcement for government guidelines and compliance ensuring duty of care.

Slots are managed dynamically to ensure consistent footfall within capacity, allowing customers to extend their stay if capacity and incoming consumers allows.

May require 10-minute buying windows that allow Till Queues to be managed. When you go in store you book or are allocated a till slot, as you browse it updates until your session is ending and you have to go to the till or surrender your ability to buy something today.

Example 2 - Stadium capacity.

Stadiums are less regular in capacity but also have a different schedule. For these sites we need to reduce the capacity and bring the capacity in in a structured way to avoid over dense footfall.

Wembley 90’000

Assuming fairly even seat row and seat spacing. 50 rows of people around the stadium @ 1800 per row. Spacing I suspect means 1 in 3 can be used. ~ 17 rows remaining.

Seating spacing, probably 1 in 3 again so 600 people per row.

New Wembley stadium capacity until stands for AntiGen holders can be opened, 10’200

Those 10k visitors could be scheduled into the stadium with notifications based on their expected arrival time and adjusted according to tracking on their way to the event, this is to ensure that queues don’t occur before and after games.

To enforce and report on venue compliance the venue would need to provide individual schedules for each event style and size, these schedules could be booked based on end user requirements and rather than having peak and trough retail footfall, scheduled slots would enforce a flatter footfall ensuring capacities were not exceeded. 

Example 3 – Restaurant

Space and capacity based on formula, open for more hours with less customers and wider booking slots based on number of covers in capacity and entrances and exits available.

Example 4 - Food retailer 

May require 10-minute buying windows, that allow Till Queues to be managed. When you go in store you book or are allocated a till slot, as you browse it updates until your session is ending and re-allocates another till slot based on availability.

How to roll-out?

Economy needs people to spend money so retail and football/rugby seem to be primary candidates for initial testing.

With families being stuck indoors, connecting with National Museums, science museums are a great direction for the summer, a booking and public transport gets everyone access to anything again.

Retailers who have a direct front door to the public should be the priority, managing access to out of town outlets and large department stores will be difficult in the short term.

Independent retailers and small businesses are desperate for a way to get back to work and have some process management. Less capacity does not mean no way to work. Some contact professions such as hairdressing may have difficulty in the short term.

Retail Upside

Consistent footfall with scheduling, build demand in off-peak times, ability to return to trade, better consumer relationship, customer loyalty, special events, more experiences, extend slots to click and collect based on allocated parking and 10-minute slots. ~ 72 slots a day with potentially 10 car parking spaces, provides interaction with another 720 customers who are 100% purchasing. ** Argos model for broader retail but outside while you sit in the car. All via the same slot scheduling method.

Ability to provide more personalised service. Concierge when retailers know a VIP client is coming in, “Fred is coming in I’ll get him an outfit out and he can try it on in a pre-booked fitting room slot”

Economy Upside

Some economic activity can be restarted, even if gradually in a controlled manner, providing hope to people and a pathway to establishing a new normal. Money needs to be spent for it to be earned. Otherwise the government is going to have a lot of people to pay for unemployment, and that’s not a mess we really need.