How do sustainable aviation policies differ between Trump and Harris?

Produced in conjunction with the upcoming?Sustainable Aviation Futures North America Congress?in Houston (scheduled from 2 to 4 October 2024), our latest report outlines critical opportunities and challenges in the SAF industry.

The 2024 US Presidential Election, slated for a month after the SAF Americas Congress in Houston, could result in significant policy shifts regarding sustainable aviation and existing 'green' incentives.

SAF producers and airlines must be prepared for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris to win the election. As a result, this section compares the likely approaches of each to SAF and provides suggested guidelines for navigating this evolving landscape.

Policy contrasts

The stark differences between Trump and Harris in their approach to climate change and energy policy will likely lead to divergent paths for the SAF industry under their respective administrations.

Under Trump's presidency, the industry could expect a significant reduction in federal support for SAF development.

This comes as Trump's skepticism towards climate change measures and preference for fossil fuels suggests he might roll back or eliminate subsidies and tax incentives provided by the IRA. The prospects of a federal SAF mandate for US airlines would likely diminish, potentially slowing the adoption of cleaner fuels.

Trump's approach to emissions regulations would probably involve relaxing aviation industry standards. His previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement indicates he might once again withdraw from international climate commitments, focusing instead on boosting domestic fossil fuel production rather than reducing emissions.

In contrast, a Harris administration would likely maintain or even expand federal investment in SAF research and development. Harris's strong climate advocacy suggests she may continue and possibly enhance tax credits for SAF production and use. Under her leadership, there's also a higher likelihood of introducing a federal SAF mandate with specific blending requirements.

Harris could also push for stricter emissions standards for airlines, maintaining the US commitment to the Paris Agreement and global climate goals. Moreover, she has, in the past, supported the idea of a “climate pollution fee”, which she says would "make polluters pay for emitting greenhouse gases into our atmosphere.” As a result, there would be the possibility of an EU-ETS-style system being introduced into the US.

Nonetheless, regardless of which administration takes charge for the next four years, the medium- and long-term sustainability trajectories in the US appear secure. Overall, the current momentum should see the realization of significant decarbonisation efforts over the next decade.

The subsidy and investment climate

The investment climate for SAF would differ markedly under each administration. A Trump presidency might create increased uncertainty for green investments. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie has suggested that $1 trillion could be at risk.

Trump’s focus on traditional energy sectors could disadvantage SAF projects in favor of conventional fuel sources.

Harris, on the other hand, would likely foster continued strong support for green investments, including SAF. Her administration could be expected to encourage increased public and private investment in clean energy technologies, creating a more favorable environment for SAF development and adoption.

Regarding research and innovation, a Trump administration might reduce federal funding for SAF-related research, emphasizing market-driven solutions without government intervention. Conversely, Harris would likely increase funding for SAF-related R&D through federal agencies and potentially support public-private partnerships to drive innovation in the sector.

The approaches to international cooperation would also diverge significantly. Trump's "America First" policy might lead to reduced engagement in international climate initiatives, with a potential focus on bilateral energy deals rather than global climate efforts. Harris, however, would likely push for increased international cooperation on SAF standards and technology sharing, potentially advocating for harmonized global SAF production and use standards.

This is an extract from our Pathways to Sustainable Aviation Fuels (North America Edition) report, which highlights the key opportunities and challenges for North America's rapidly growing SAF industry. Download for free to read the full report.