How do buyers make decisions when the outcome is uncertain?

By now, we know that humans are not as rational as counting various choices, assigning them probabilities, and choosing the one with the highest pay off. Instead, humans tend to be irrationally influenced by past decisions that were made in similar circumstances. Some recent studies have been merging well-known constructs: prospect theory (famous in behavioral economics for describing decisions under uncertainty) and reinforcement learning (popular in neuroscience research) to address the notion of decisions under uncertainty in a current way.

One study in particular at the University of Tsukuba in Japan proposes a “dynamic prospect theory,” based on a model indicating that when both humans and monkeys experience a larger than expected reward, they show greater optimism regarding the probability of winning again. This happens even when subjects are exposed to clear indications of the probabilities for subsequent outcomes.

We can explain this from a neuroscience perspective because, when we experience great rewards, dopamine is released, which impacts learning and forming predictions for the next decision. As a species, we must learn predictions because this is how we think we can make good decisions in broader contexts, when the environment is less stable. There is abundant literature on decision-making in unstable environments that reminds us that learning never stops for probabilistic outcomes even in a stable environment. As soon as feedback occurs, animals and humans use the perception of probabilities to guide their next decision.

What do these observations mean to you if you’re a marketer or a seller?

Every experience impacts what customers expect of the next experience.

To stay competitive, it’s likely that right now, you’re offering your audiences the best experiences possible. So, you’re tempted to go all out each time. But this technique teaches them that the next time they meet with you, they should expect the same or more. This type of fixed schedule for providing rewards drains your energy and resources. ?

Knowing that past “wins” influence future expectations, a more sustainable technique is to provide your customers intermittent rewards. This means that sometimes, you offer them an experience or stimulus that is highly intense, sometimes, you offer something less intense, and sometimes you offer nothing at all. This teaches the brain to stay with the sequence because you're eliminating predictability. The brain sustains effort because it estimates that the reward will still come but now the interval is just a bit longer.

I see this response from the brain frequently as I conduct neuroscience studies and invite B2B buyers to participate. Cognitive processes such as attention, working memory, fatigue and motivation fluctuate as the sequence of a sales presentation progresses. And typically, motivation tends to be higher when the stimulus varies; for instance, the design of some slides in a sales presentation we may study are aggressively vivid, while some are quiet and subdued.

In this example above, an investor is watching a presentation in one of our neuroscience studies, where some slides take on a full screen, and display intense pictures, text, and vivid colors, while other slides are light and display less text and no color. The presentation does make a strong promise of value in the beginning and delivers on it at the end. The visual rewards in-between these sign posts vary to account avoid a predictable stimulus.

So, the key takeaway is that your buyer's brain is likely to learn from any interaction you provide it, especially if the reward is valuable and better than predicted. But the good news for you (and your sanity) is that the repetition of that reward does not have to be delivered with the utmost predictability each time. You can ease off the stimulus as long as in the background, there is the lingering appeal of perceived value.

Carmen Simon, PhD, is the Chief Science Officer at Corporate Visions?and author of?Impossible to Ignore: Creating Memorable Content to Influence Decisions . She uses neuroscience tools to research how the brain processes business messages, remembers them, and decides to act (or not). The research are translated into practical guidelines, which sellers and marketers use to interact with B2B customers.

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