How Direct and Indirect Impacts Relate to Turnaround Execution

In the industrial sector, particularly in refinery turnarounds, achieving optimal Craft Tool Time (CTT) performance is essential for successful project execution. However, recent audits and studies reveal that a significant challenge to efficiency is overestimation of planned work, often inflated by 200% to 400%. This overestimation, coupled with various direct and indirect impacts on productivity, has led to misaligned resource allocation and delays, undermining turnaround success.

This white paper explores the key direct and indirect impacts on CTT performance, how overestimation exacerbates these challenges, and offers strategies for improving overall project outcomes.

In refinery turnarounds, accurate estimations and maximizing "Craft Tool Time" (CTT) performance are critical to ensuring that resources are used efficiently, and downtime is minimized. Unfortunately, overestimation of planned work by as much as 200% to 400% is a recurring issue, contributing to resource mismanagement and inefficiencies. Understanding the factors affecting CTT performance, both direct and indirect, can provide turnaround teams with actionable insights to improve execution and reduce unnecessary costs.

The Importance of Estimation and Craft Tool Time Performance

Estimating plays a crucial role in project planning. However, overestimation of manpower, time, and resources leads to bloated costs and poor utilization of labor. Craft Tool Time, or the actual time that workers spend on productive tasks, is a key performance metric in industrial environments, where inefficiencies often occur due to both direct and indirect impacts.

Overestimations often leads to indirect impacts such as overstaffing, congestion, and reduced productivity, making it vital to develop accurate estimates and manage both direct and indirect factors influencing CTT performance.

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Craft Tool Time Performance

The following table outlines the common direct and indirect impacts affecting CTT performance in industrial environments, such as refinery turnarounds:

Direct Impacts

Direct impacts are issues that immediately disrupt productive work by preventing workers from effectively using their tools. Examples include delays in the start of shifts, lack of materials or tools, poor coordination, and permitting delays. For example, shift start delays can result in lost productive time if workers are not mobilized promptly, while coordination delays can leave crews waiting for other tasks to be completed.

Indirect Impacts

Indirect impacts stem from systemic inefficiencies and management issues. For instance, overstaffing due to inaccurate estimates results in congestion on the worksite, while misaligned task sequencing creates bottlenecks that reduce productivity. Reactive management and planning further exacerbate inefficiencies, as execution teams may spend more time addressing issues reactively instead of following a structured forward-planning process.

The Role of Overestimation

As recent audits have revealed, project estimates in refinery turnarounds are often inflated by 200% to 400%, leading to significant inefficiencies. This overestimation has cascading effects on both direct and indirect impacts:

• Increased Labor: Overestimated labor needs often lead to overstaffing, which in turn causes congestion on the worksite, reducing productivity and leading to idle time for workers.
• Increased Costs: With inflated estimates, companies allocate more resources than necessary, which drives up costs, particularly in terms of labor, materials, and indirect overhead.
• Complex Project Execution: Overestimation complicates project execution by misaligning resources with actual requirements, creating logistical and sequencing challenges that result in delays and inefficiencies.

To mitigate overestimation, turnaround teams must adopt more rigorous estimation methodologies, including bottom-up and norm-based estimates, combined with continuous auditing and risk management practices to ensure estimates remain aligned with actual project conditions.

Baseline Studies on Craft Performance and Management Delays

To address inefficiencies, it is also important to establish baseline studies on craft performance. Craft performance measurement involves analyzing the CTT efficiency to track how much productive work is being achieved compared to downtime. These studies help in identifying areas where workers are either underperforming or where management delays are impacting their ability to stay productive.

For example, a baseline study may reveal that only 35% to 38% of craft hours are spent productively, with the remaining time lost to indirect impacts such as poor project planning or inadequate communication. Corrective actions stemming from these insights can lead to significant improvements in CTT performance, reducing costs and improving overall turnaround outcomes.

Strategies for Improving Craft Tool Time Performance and Estimates

To reduce overestimation and improve CTT performance, refinery turnaround teams should adopt the following strategies:

1. Continuous Forward Planning: Reactive management and planning should be replaced with a forward-planning mindset, where potential issues are anticipated, and contingencies are developed before they affect the project.
2. Regular Audits of Estimates: Conducting regular audits of estimates ensures that projections remain accurate and aligned with the actual project scope. This practice enhances the estimating methodology, reducing overestimations and improving overall efficiency.
3. Streamline Communication and Coordination: Clear communication and proper coordination between teams can eliminate many of the direct and indirect impacts that affect CTT performance.
4. Baseline Craft Performance Tracking: By establishing performance baselines for craft and management, turnaround teams can measure and improve efficiency over time, addressing any recurring issues that lead to delays or productivity losses.

Conclusion

Craft Tool Time performance is a critical measure of productivity in refinery turnarounds. Both direct and indirect impacts, exacerbated by overestimation, can drastically reduce the efficiency of these projects. By adopting better estimation practices, regular audits, and focusing on both craft and execution management, refinery turnaround teams can improve CTT performance, reduce costs, and achieve more successful project outcomes.