How Did Your Predictions Go in 2022? Full Confession…Fess Up!!!

Destiny. Fate. Prophecy.

I think about the confluence of the three a lot, especially around this time of year. This is often when the predictions, forecasts, and projections from the never-held-accountable-for-any-of-it pundits and analysts fill our feeds.

Their outcome guesses are way too often self-serving as they hope they’ll be?self-fulfilling.?

The truth is, one reason ‘tis the season for divining…soothsaying and augury if you will, because as the ancients approached the Winter Solstice, the days got shorter and shorter and they needed the confirmation that the sun would come back. And so, an industry was born. Imagine if they had apps back then.

Frankly, as I always begin, my Crystal Ball is Cloudy, every year more so…but I always do take a look back, as the days get shorter, to see just how close I came before I peer into the mists for the coming year.

Those who have the curiosity or just want to keep me honest can go back and see some of my more ridiculed cloudy conjecture, like Amazon opening stores, Snap and Netflix taking advertising, and streaming services starting to consolidate like a cable offering. Oh yeah, all came to pass…I might have had a job back in the cave after all!

Let's review and go back and read last year’s predictions to keep me doubly honest. I called it, “What are the Game Changers and What’s Overhyped?” My own self-presented scorecard looked good to me:

1. New York will come back strong – I think I got that one right. Restaurants are full…the commuter lines are filling up…Broadway is hopping…and more and more people are coming back to offices (hybrid, of course). I went to see the Tree at Rockafeller Center and couldn’t move because there were so many tourist visitors.
2. The Great Resignation will end – It sure feels like that as it sadly becomes the great lay-off.?
3. Social media will get more toxic – Oh boy, and I didn’t even take into account Elon.
4. Regulation discussions of social media will take on a new urgency – yup.
5. Covid will continue to develop...no new normal except for the ever-changing environment – And yes, for many masks are part of the uniform.

I also provided my first-ever Cloudy Crystal Ball Review of what to totally ignore from the pundit/expert predictors whose divinations are already clogging my mailbox.?

My view was that if you see any of these topics wrapped around rhetoric that suggests it's all you need for success—or that they have replaced all else—hit delete…move on…read Kara Swisher or Tim Wu…watch Ted Lasso or buy a novel…

I called them My Ten Commandments to Just Get Over and suggested you learn them, know them, make them yours…but stop obsessing…

1. E-Commerce?– Enough with the mind-numbing BS. It's growing. It will continue to grow. It's also evolving into cool local opportunities.?Do It Big:?If your brand or business sells stuff B2B/B2C, and you’re not online, get in or give up. And my bet is you are.?
2. Retail?– See point 1. It's amazing how in the course of a week the same experts will say three different and contradictory things…Brick and Mortar is dead; omnichannel is the future; digital-only is the only success… Meanwhile, Amazon is retail. So is American Eagle (shameless plug—my readers know I’m on the board), as is Warby Parker. Not only is retail not dead, but it's alive and well through online channels and Brick and Mortar. Every “Digital Only and Always” company is opening stores or placing products in physical locations. No, one isn’t better than the other. People like the choice. Enough with this one.?Do It Big:?Follow your users, buyers, customers, and consumers, not the talking heads.
3. Experiences?–?Yes? Of course, we crave experiences. Ever hear of the Roman Coliseum (watch Gladiator or Spartacus)? Brands have always been about the experience. What else makes it a brand? And, yes, some digital VR experiences are or will be immersive…and we love them!!! But going to a restaurant with friends is immersive as well. Do It Big: Life?is?an experience…get it?
4. Digital First/Digital Transformation?– This has gotten stale and is frankly meaningless. There’s not much left that doesn’t have digital in it somewhere. This is another one not to get flummoxed with. This is kind of like e-commerce, but even more elemental. People First needs to be your mantra. Do It Big: Digital is everything, like I said…buy coffee from a food stand and chances are you pay digitally. But not everything is digital…see my thoughts on experiences and retail above.
5. Bitcoin?– It's here. Get over it. Even nonprofits are learning to accept it. But run from the folks who tell you that it's replacing Credit Cards in the near future. Do It Big: If you speculate…go for it. But if it's your business, make it easy to transact and turn it into another currency ASAP…for now.
6. Blockchain?– See Bitcoin. Do It Big: There are many areas of operation where the application of Blockchain technology might make sense for you. It is not replacing the WEB…run from those consultants… Do It Big: Do run towards the folks who can help you analyze your needs and how the ledger can help your transactions, inventory, etc.
7. NFTs?– If you think that all there is to them is collectible, head-scratching art whose valuations are being manipulated by the unscrupulous, you are only partially right. There is way more to them, but you are right about the manipulation… Do It Big: There is huge value in understanding the full potential of NFTs for customer service, ownership of physical items, and more. If you want to speculate, see Bitcoin above…but if you want marketing success, pay no attention to the usual.
8. Metaverse?– Roblox is great. Gucci even managed to sell a virtual handbag on the platform for over $4K when the real one sells for $3K+…and that’s on a supposed kids' platform…parents watch out. In fact, Facebook even changed its name to show its commitment to the Metaverse…Or was that to hide from regulators? I get confused. But don’t you get confused by what’s real and not, and what might get your agency an award at an industry show versus what will create more connections with your real consumers. Do It Big: The Metaverse is having another go…you need to understand it. There are huge opportunities to be had…some in gaming…some in plain old social connecting. Be there and be aware…but it’s not replacing life as we know it…not even close. See Discord.
9. Streaming?– Yes, we all watch streaming content. And no, episodes don’t need to be all dumped at once. Movies can be released theatrically. Do It Big: Streaming is a method of distribution. How you use it and in conjunction with what is called MARKETING…see all points above.
10. ?Content?– Don’t make me scream!! Yes, it's all content. ENOUGH. Do It Big: Advertising is content. Always has been. Always will be. So is everything on TikTok. Even Harry & Meghan. But they are all different.?

Anyways, as I said…run. Find people who actually ignore the DIGIBABBLE…understand how your business works and how to apply all of the above to your success.?Way better than any predictions.?

As I read it again this morning, I smiled thinking about destiny. Fate. Prophecy. None of it is certain. All of it is in our hands—however, if you blame destiny and fate, you never have to explain why it didn’t happen…do you?

What do you think? Share your predictions and/or the “best” ones you heard that the market followed that went nowhere.

Next week in my Cloudy Crystal Ball, I will look ahead to what I think we should keep our eyes on in 2023.