How did my forecasts turn out - 6 years on?
It has been almost six years since I wrote the cover story for MoneyWeek ("Boom Times are here again") where I outlined my research on the overall 18-year real estate/economic cycle, how it plays out, where we were within it and how the cycle would play out over the coming years, into a forecast peak in the mid-2020s.
Suffice to say, the intervening years have been turbulent - with the election of Trump, Brexit, the migration crisis, the US-China trade war and, most recently, a global pandemic.
But despite all that, and even the current state of the economy, I think the long-term forecasts are well on track. Of course, some of the shorter-term ones (such as seeing bond yields rising) have not been as accurate as I would have hoped, but there are inevitably going to be consequences to the unprecedented government intervention we have seen in recent years. Commodity prices did indeed recover after 2017, as I forecast, but their run up (apart from gold, mainly) has been curtailed by the slowdown that started in late 2019.
You can read the article here and let me know what you think. https://moneyweek.com/503173/boom-times-are-here-again
Team Lead & Senior TA Specialist, Technical Assistance
4 年Thanks Akhil. There's a lot of talk now that following a brief boom in the lead up to the US election period, we will then go into a depression. In effect, the corona virus will have pricked the bubble and we then have the bringing forward of the collapse that would have otherwise happened around 2026/7. Do you think that's a possibility at all?
Leadership transformation. Previously CEO at Saatchi & Saatchi and the WPP Group.
4 年Akhil, how long do you think this mid cycle recession last for- and is it mainly a stock market crash rather than a property one?
CEO at Bywater Properties, Invest NI Board Member
4 年I really do hope you are right?! So are we just 1-2 years behind your prediction?