How to Develop Strategic Foresight

In my last blog , I introduced the concept of strategic foresight as a key tool to navigate today’s complex business environment in a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous) world.

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As a quick reminder, strategic foresight is?a systematic method of analysing possible futures to help businesses prepare for the future and make better decisions.?

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It involves considering a range of plausible futures, and then distilling them down to the most likely scenarios.?Companies can then use this information to identify opportunities and challenges and align their strategies accordingly.

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The?Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)?defines strategic foresight as “a structured and systematic way of using ideas about the future to anticipate and better prepare for change.”

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I now want to consider the steps Resilient business leaders can take to develop strategic foresight.

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I hope my checklist below proves useful:

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Scanning & scouting

These two foresight activities help organisations gather information about their external environment.

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Scanning provides the foundation by capturing a wide array of information, whilst scouting helps identify emerging opportunities and trends that might not be readily available simply through scanning.

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These two activities are essential for organisations to anticipate and respond effectively to industry changes and maintain a competitive advantage.

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Topic Clustering

This foresight method identifies and categorises relevant topics or themes within a particular area.

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Organisations use this to uncover emerging trends and patterns, understand interrelationships between different themes, and inform strategic decision-making.

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Radars

Radars organise foresight intelligence including emerging technologies, trends, startups, or risks in a centralised and intuitive view.

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This helps organisations derive insights more quickly and raise awareness about strategic focus areas and support collaboration by inviting collective, cross-functional input.

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STEEP

This analysis tool assesses external factors and macro-level trends impacting an organisation’s future – helping business leaders identify and understand their external environment to inform strategic decision-making and long-term planning.

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The acronym stands for Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political.

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Knowledge gained helps organisations anticipate potential opportunities and threats, adapt their strategies, and make informed decisions to say ahead in a rapidly changing business landscape.

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Scenario planning

This explores and prepares for potential future scenarios and their implications.

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It involves developing multiple plausible future scenarios based on different combinations of key drivers and/or variable data trajectories.

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It helps organisations develop a forward-looking perspective, foster innovation, and build resilience by considering multiple potential futures. Employing this tool, companies can better understand the challenges and opportunities they face – improving their ability to adapt and succeed in a rapidly changing world.

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Opportunity framework

This systematic approach identifies and evaluates potential opportunities for a company – helping business leaders understand the future business landscape, emerging trends, and disruptive forces which may impact their industry or market.

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By identifying new growth avenues and potential disruptions, it supports the development and adaptation of strategic plans, and is a common approach in new product development, market expansion, digital transformation, and risk management.

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Tech S-curve

This helps organisations anticipate the future trajectory of a technology, identify opportunities and threats, and make informed decisions about investments, product developments, and market positioning.

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It typically consists of three main phases – introduction, acceleration, and maturation – and helps companies adapt their strategies accordingly.

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Look out for the next articles in this series – “The Importance of Strategic Foresight,” and “The Benefits of Strategic Foresight.”

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If you need further information about these approaches, or any other resilience topic, please contact [email protected] .