How will the delay of the Corona Crisis in US and EU affect the economic balance?
Johnny Gregersen Ryser
My ambition is a climate-neutral industry before I retire.
While China is recovering fast after the Corona Crisis, we have only entered the early stages of the Corona Crisis in EU and US, just look at the numbers of new Corona Cases in this live map: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This may be the most obvious opportunity China will ever get, to reach the target of regaining 37% of the world trade to meet the numbers of the 1850′s - which by the way is the goal of their last two five-year planning rolls. With the opportunity to utilize their state-of the art digital business models, their strength in automation and in RD, it may become a devastating stroke against many Western companies. Moreover it may also be a unprecedented window of opportunity of Chinese takeovers of Western companies in deep financial troubles.
As China usually take the direct path when they have to change anything - taking very rational decisions (as opposed to the west where feelings and history usually interfere the decision process), we may also expect China speed up their development within the industries they have seen recover fast after the Corona-recession, while leaving the industries which is only recovering slowly behind in the investment game.
Western companies which has set up production facilities in China based on access to low cost workers and suppliers, may be hit even harder, as their suppliers and factories now is getting back to work, but their markets in the West is on hold for may be another three months. This comes at a very high liquidity cost - opening even more acquisition opportunities for those who are "back in business".
While I am optimistic at the outcome of the corona crisis, e.g. our environment has had a well needed brake when it comes to e.g. emissions, I do not think the world will turn back in a modus operandi we have seen before.
Interesting time is definitely ahead of us.