How the Decline in FAFSA Submissions Could Accelerate the Impact of the Enrollment Cliff

It’s March, and if all goes to plan, the Department of Education will soon begin to transmit Institutional Student Information Records (ISIRs) to colleges and universities nationwide. But the number of ISIRs they need to transmit is down significantly compared to prior years.?

According to data from the National College Attainment Network through March 1, 2024, FAFSA submissions by high school seniors are down 34.4% compared to the same time last year. And when you look at how FAFSA submissions break down by income level, the news becomes even more grim. FAFSA submissions from low-income students are down 42.9%, compared to a 29.9% decline in applications from high-income students.?

Fewer FAFSA submissions from the graduating Class of 2024 could signal lower first-year enrollments for the upcoming 2024-2025 academic year, an unwelcome side effect of the already stressful FAFSA simplification rollout. And with higher percentages of low-income and students of color failing to complete the form, the colleges and universities whose student bodies contain higher numbers of low-income and minority students could suffer even more.??

How the FAFSA Delays are Impacting Enrollment

Warnings of declining enrollments have been in the news for years. And with the enrollment cliff looming large, many are wondering if the FAFSA delays will nudge higher education closer to the precipice.?

It’s a fair question, especially in light of the bad news delivered by the U.S. Census Bureau in February. While their original projections predicted a peak in enrollment in 2025 or 2026 followed by a dramatic decline of nearly 15% in the number of new high-school graduates, the Census Bureau also predicted a rebound beginning in 2034. But now, updated predictions indicate a bleaker outlook, suggesting no rebound will occur in the 21st century.?

The later-than-usual FAFSA launch, combined with the numerous hiccups and delays caused by the new form, is causing some high school seniors to pause and reconsider their options.?

With affordability as a top enrollment consideration, few students - less than a quarter - feel confident that they can afford college. First-generation and low-income students feel even less confident, with only 14% of first-gen and 12% of low-income indicating they were confident they could afford a college education. And without a clear picture of their financial aid package, determining what college to attend becomes difficult, if not impossible.?

Institutions with higher tuition prices are concerned that they are at-risk of losing prospective students to competitors with lower costs or ones that can commit merit funds absent of FAFSA information. As well, many colleges and universities are experiencing lower-than-usual acceptance rates as admitted students wait for financial aid packages to be released later in March or in April. As a result of the delays, a number of institutions have already pushed back their traditional May 1 decision day deadline, with others likely to follow.?

The Bigger Impact of FAFSA Delays on Institutional Planning

Enrollment impacts caused by the FAFSA delays are not the only concern weighing on the minds of campus leaders. They’re also worried about the downstream effects on institutional planning.?

Admissions data drives budget decisions, and without accurate admissions data, institutional budgets could remain in flux through the summer. Delays in enrollment decisions would also stall approvals of institutional plans, causing downstream effects for areas like student services. After all, without an accurate view of the incoming class, student services staff will struggle to create accurate class schedules and assign housing.?

But even beyond the immediate impacts on the 2024-2025 academic year, institutions already experiencing declining enrollments and tightening budgets will struggle even further, leaving some institutions with no choice other than to close their doors.?

Navigating Uncertain Enrollments and the Looming Enrollment Clif

To say the rollout of the new FAFSA has been challenging is an understatement. Not only is it wreaking havoc on the decision-making process for students and their families, but it’s also causing undue stress on institutions and their recruiting, admissions, and financial aid staff.?

With first-year enrollments in flux, financial aid packages unprocessed, and decisions delayed, institutions may worry that they are teetering on the edge of the enrollment cliff. If that’s how you’re feeling, rest assured, you’re not alone. But the good news is, there are some things you can do.?

Recruit Non-Traditional Students

It’s likely you already have a population of non-traditional students enrolled at your institution. And if you’re like most institutions, that number is likely growing. So lean into it. Just because the number of high school graduates is decreasing doesn’t mean your enrollment numbers need to follow suit. Rethink your recruiting strategies to include prospective students outside of the traditional 18-22 full-time student profile. Consider their needs, and evaluate the ways in which your institution can serve them. This may require offering more online or hybrid courses - or maybe even totally new enrollment models. Which brings us to our next suggestion.

Explore New Enrollment Models

The idea of the “traditional” student who graduates high school and attends college full-time for four years is becoming a thing of the past. Many institutions are seeing trends where even recent high school grads are demanding greater flexibility into the ways in which they pursue a 2-year or 4-year degree. That’s why discussions about offering new enrollment models such as competency-based education, non-standard terms, non-term, and subscription models, and new, in-demand courses and programs are becoming agenda items at many institutions. By answering the calls for greater flexibility and diversity in courses, programs, and enrollment models, your institution can position itself as innovative and responsive to student needs, helping you to remain competitive even as the number of first-year, first-time students declines.?

We realize that implementing these strategies is easier said than done. Not only do they require cross-departmental discussions, support, and buy-in, but in some cases, such as financial aid, they may also require new technologies and staff reorganization. But as the predicted enrollment cliff accelerates towards reality, think of it as an opportunity to rethink the ways in which your institution can transform and better support students on their road to success.?

Begin by aligning your strategies with the institution’s enrollment goals and strategic plan. Partner with your colleagues in recruiting to consider creative ways to recruit non-traditional students. Collaborate with coworkers and faculty members to promote new enrollment models, courses, and programs in ways that differentiate your institution. And work together with partners across the organization to assess your current processes, organizational structures, and technologies to determine if you need to make a change. Taking these small steps will help your institution stand out to prospective students and help your institution.