How to DECIDE -The HOT model

Happiness test

If you decide to order the salmon instead of the tuna for dinner and you hate the salmon, what effect does that decision have on your happiness a week from now?

Many decisions, like what to eat, watch, and wear, will have little impact on your happiness a week from now (i.e., you quickly recover from a bad outcome).  The next time you’re stuck on a decision, conduct The Happiness Test by asking yourself: “Will my happiness, a week from now, depend on this decision?” If not, decide quickly.

Only‐Option Test

Most decisions are threshold problems: gather options and determine which options meet your standards (which options are satisfactory and which are not). However, once you have two or more options that meet your standards, the decision is easy ‐ just pick one. Spending hours to determine which option is BEST is usually a waste of your time.  If a vacation to Paris has a 90% chance of being a great vacation, but a vacation to Rome might have a 91% chance of being a great vacation, stop wasting your time and flip a coin. The faster you pick, the more time you’ll have to prepare for your vacation. The next time you’re stuck between two great options, like going to Paris or Rome on vacation, isolate one option and ask yourself: “If this were my only option, would I happily take it?” If so, decide quickly.

Two‐Way Door Test “Some decisions are one‐way doors… If you walk through and don't like what you see on the other side, you can't get back to where you were before. But most decisions aren't like that ‐ they are changeable, reversible ‐ they're two‐way doors. If you've made a sub‐optimal two‐way door decision, you don't have to live with the consequences for that long. You can reopen the door and go back through.” – Jeff Bezos

Determine if a decision is a two‐way door decision by routinely asking yourself: “What is the cost of quitting?” If the cost of quitting is low, decide quickly. The happiness test, the only‐option test, and the two‐way door test are three quick methods to help you be more decisive.

But occasionally you’ll run into a decision: ? That could have a significant impact on your happiness. ? Where no one option you would be happy with. ? In which the quitting cost is high.

If this is the case you need to go slow, collect information, and construct target estimates.

Jayadeva de Silva