How to create an input-output model or econometric model for a country like the Philippines
?Data Requirements for Input-Output or Econometric Model
- National Accounts Data: GDP, GNP, sectoral output.
- Input-Output Tables: Inter-industry transactions data.
- Trade Data: Import/export data by commodity and partner.
- Labor Market Data: Employment, wages, productivity by sector.
- Price Indices: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI).
- Demographic Data: Population, household surveys.
- Investment Data: Capital formation, sectoral investment.
- Government Data: Public finance, expenditures, revenues.
- Financial Data: Interest rates, exchange rates, money supply.
- External Sector Data: Balance of payments, foreign direct investment.
Surveys and Data Sources
- Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA): National accounts, labor force surveys, household income and expenditure surveys.
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP): Financial data, balance of payments, monetary statistics.
- Department of Trade and Industry (DTI): Trade and industry statistics.
- Department of Finance (DOF): Public finance data.
- National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA): Economic indicators, development reports.
- International Organizations: World Bank, IMF, ADB for comparative data and technical assistance.
Mathematical Models, Tools, and Software
- Econometric Software: Stata: Data analysis, econometrics, statistical modeling. EViews: Time series econometric analysis. R: Open-source statistical computing and graphics. Python: Data manipulation, statistical modeling, machine learning.
- Input-Output Modeling Tools: IMPLAN: Economic impact analysis. RIMS II: Regional Input-Output Modeling System. GTAP: Global Trade Analysis Project for multi-region input-output analysis.
- Statistical Tools: SPSS: Statistical analysis. MATLAB: Numerical computing, algorithm development.
Educational Background and Training
- Economics: Degrees in Economics (Bachelor’s, Master’s, PhD).
- Statistics and Mathematics: Degrees in Statistics or Applied Mathematics.
- Data Science: Expertise in data manipulation, programming (e.g., R, Python), machine learning.
- Finance and Public Policy: Knowledge of financial systems, public finance, economic policy.
Expertise and Experience
- Economists: Specialization in macroeconomics, microeconomics, development economics.
- Statisticians: Data analysis, statistical modeling.
- Data Scientists: Handling big data, advanced computational techniques.
- Policy Analysts: Interpreting model outputs, policy recommendations.
- Software Developers: Customizing and maintaining econometric and input-output models.
- Project Managers: Coordinating a multidisciplinary team.
Team Composition
- Lead Economist: Guides overall project, ensures theoretical rigor.
- Econometricians: Develop and calibrate econometric models.
- Statisticians: Data validation, statistical analysis.
- Data Analysts: Data processing, visualization.
- IT Specialists: Software maintenance, data security.
- Policy Advisors: Translate model results into policy insights.
Collaborating Institutions
- National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA): Leads economic planning, policy formulation.
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP): Provides financial, monetary data, expertise.
- Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA): Supplies critical statistical data.
- University of the Philippines School of Economics (UPSE): Academic expertise, research support.
- Other Government Agencies: Department of Finance (DOF), Department of Trade and Industry (DTI).
- Private Research Groups and Think Tanks: Additional research, technical support.
- International Organizations: World Bank, IMF for technical assistance, data.
Effects of Changes in Economic Variables
Inflation
- GDP: High inflation can reduce consumer purchasing power, decrease real GDP if not accompanied by nominal wage increases. It can also distort price signals, leading to inefficient allocation of resources.
- Employment: Inflation can have a mixed impact. Moderate inflation might encourage spending and investment, boosting employment. However, high inflation can lead to uncertainty and reduced investment, negatively impacting employment.
Exchange Rate
- GDP: A depreciation of the Philippine peso makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive, potentially boosting net exports and GDP. Conversely, appreciation can hurt export competitiveness, reducing GDP growth.
- Employment: Exchange rate depreciation can increase demand for export-oriented industries, boosting employment in these sectors. Appreciation might lead to job losses in these industries due to reduced competitiveness.
Productivity
- GDP: Increased productivity enhances the efficiency of production, leading to higher output and GDP growth without a proportional increase in input costs.
- Employment: Productivity improvements can lead to higher wages and better living standards. However, in the short term, it might lead to job displacement if output does not increase proportionately with productivity gains.
Collaboration on Model Development
Yes, NEDA and BSP often collaborate with the UP School of Economics and other government agencies and private research groups to construct, develop, calibrate, and test economic models. These collaborations leverage the academic and research expertise of UPSE, the statistical capabilities of PSA, and the financial and economic policy insights from BSP and NEDA.
References
- National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA): Various economic reports and plans available on their website.
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP): Publications and statistics available on their website.
- Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA): Data and surveys available on their website.
- University of the Philippines School of Economics (UPSE): Research outputs and publications available on their website.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF): Country reports and economic data available on their website.
- World Bank: Economic data and research available on their website.
YOU MAY CONTACT MARCIAL OCAMPO AT
63-967-3143774 Globe Mobile. Viber, WhatsApp
