How will COVID-19 Impact the Rise of Extremism and Terrorism?

Summary

The two financial crashes of 1930 and 2008 have demonstrated that poor domestic economies are fertile grounds for discontent and the rise of populist politics. Populist politics “Many of the European countries that are among the worst affected by the pandemic, such as Italy and Spain, already had weak fiscal positions before the outbreak,” said Agathe Demarais, the EU ’s global forecasting director. “A potential debt crisis in any of these countries would quickly spread to other developed countries and emerging markets, sending the global economy into another - possibly much worse - downturn,” she added.

The IMF added that investors might be unwilling to lend to some of these nations, which would push up borrowing costs. "This increase in sovereign borrowing costs or simply fear of it materialising, could prevent many countries from providing the income support assumed here."

What is sure in this uncertain time is that we are on a knife edge, or if you would like to be more optimistic at a once in a lifetime decision point. We could unite and present a common assault on the virus and the aftermath or we could do what we have done so many times before and look within ourselves and blame others. The trend we are seeing now and have seen in the last 5 years is one of isolation; both BREXIT and “Make America Great Again” are testimony to the latter course of action. 

This fractured state is an opportunity to some that wish to further destabilise a nation or region. These are perfect conditions to undertake influence campaigns that can alter political landscape or, in extremis, lead to civil uprising. It sounds far-fetched to talk of such things, and in a time of ‘remaining calm’ these words may appear alarmist and sensationalist, however, the tenant of next generation warfare is one of invisibility and unaccountability and we are, right now, in the middle of a fifth generation war. We saw this fledgling tactic in Crimea and we are witnessing it again in the Baltic states. We saw evidence of external manipulation in the BREXIT campaign and potentially the same influence, although unproven, on the Trump campaign. A time of weakness is a time of opportunity. 

In this turbulent time, we need to ensure that every decision is made based on assured timely intelligence. Without this, decisions will be nothing other than mere guesses; in uncertain times you need to be certain of the decisions you make. The need for decision dominance will be enabled by information superiority, for without intelligence (assured information) you cannot have wisdom (the ability to make assured decisions). Countries, organisations and companies must now corral around the idea that intelligence is at the heart of everything that we do, now more than ever. We need to ensure that our decisions are based on real not fake news, that they are based on reality not someone else’s construct of their reality. If they do not, they will either fail or be overtaken by the parasitic narrative spun to cause third order effects.

If we are not careful, fear will be the presiding emotion on which political campaigns will be fought. We should learn lessons from 1930 and 2008: History should teach us something. Protectionism and isolationism will increase, and international reliance will be dented. That said, Germany and France have agreed financial measures that may form a strong bond behind which other European states can corral. However, what is for sure is that national borders will be back in vogue, nations will look inward and narrative will be hijacked.

We were pushed on to the demonic carousel that is COVID-19, now, weeks later and completely disoriented we prepare to get of the terrible ride to find our world and our perceptions of the world has changed.

·      In this time of unknown what is needed is clarity.

·      In this time of uncertainty, what is needed is certainty

·      In this time of disorientation, what is needed is focus

·      In this time of crisis, what is needed is assured, timely decisions.

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