How are councils navigating Scotland's changing demographics?

Scotland's population is ageing and overall population growth is slowing down, which has consequences for demand for public services as well as the resources needed to fund this demand. Cara Connachan, Senior Research Officer at the Improvement Service, discusses a new briefing which looks at the work already underway to tackle these changes.

Demographics are commonly referred to in the public sector, and rightly so, because the changing size and structure of our demographics impacts all areas of public services. We’ve known for some time that the population is ageing, and overall population growth is slowing down, however the latest Scottish Census figures allow us to see this more accurately and up to date than has been possible in recent years. These figures show that whilst the Scottish population has grown between 2011 and 2022, this was at a slower rate than the previous decade, slower than elsewhere in the UK, and was driven by inward migration into Scotland. Projections also show that Scotland’s population could start to decline from the middle of the 2030s.

These changes will impact demand for services as well as the resources needed to fund this demand. Councils in Scotland are well aware of this issue and there is already extensive work being done to prepare for these changes.

As the Improvement Service, we aim to support local government in improving their services and highlight best practice across the country. As such, the Research Team at the Improvement Service has put together a briefing which reflects on how councils are tackling the challenges associated with demographic change, as well as practices from further afield, with an aim to highlight learning opportunities.

'Navigating demographic change: how local government is responding to Scotland's changing population' examines various plans and strategies, including Local Outcome Improvement Plans (LOIP’s), Local Development Plans (LDP’s) as well as national and regional strategies. These highlight a range of good work ongoing across local government to address the changing demographics, reflecting that councils take this issue seriously and understand how it fits within their local context. These strategies typically note the need for both mitigation and adaptation:

• Mitigation - Strategies focused on attracting and retaining a greater working age population to alleviate some of the potential pressures faced by an increasing older population. For example, within the LOIP for Na h-Eileanan Siar retaining and attracting people to the area is a priority and will be achieved through actions focused on job creation, housing, promotion and connectivity.
• Adaptation - Strategies focused on redesign of housing, place, and services to account for changing demand and population needs. For example, to address the rising demand on social care services, several LOIP’s and LDP’s focus on supporting healthy ageing and increasing supply of housing with a sliding scale of care provision to ensure people live independently and within the community for longer.

The briefing also reflects on some interesting international examples that can be learnt from. For example, Japan is now the oldest country in the world and has a declining population. This is being addressed in several ways including community-based care, encouraging migration to rural areas, and tackling isolation:

• Community-based care – Taketoyo established centres run by volunteers in a collaboration between the community and local government. The approach is based on the establishment of local “salons” offering “social programmes, such as arts, crafts, music, health education seminar, and physical and brain exercises.”
• Encouraging migration to rural areas – Establishing “lifetime activity towns” within rural areas. These are essentially large-scale retirement communities where continuing care can be provided in a more cost-effective way.
• Tackling isolation – The Adachi ward in northern Tokyo uses an approach which includes surveying people aged over 70 in the ward, sharing information about potentially vulnerable people with community associations, and supporting local citizen volunteers to make home visits.

It’s hoped this briefing will be of interest to those working in councils both in planning and service delivery and may encourage reflection on current practice. Financial pressures undoubtedly make it difficult to balance competing priorities, however it’s important to recognise the wide-reaching impact changing demographics can have, and how it fits with cross cutting agendas including the Just Transition and Wellbeing Economy.