How a coalition government may be formed after elections

It is useful to understand timelines and procedures for the election of a new President and the appointment of a cabinet, as well as mechanisms for their removal.

Term of Parliament, the President and the Cabinet

The National Assembly remains competent to function from the time its term expires, until the day before the first day of polling for the next Assembly. This means it can continue to attend to urgent business up until the day before elections.

After an election, the first sitting of the National Assembly must take place on a date determined by the Chief Justice, but not more than 14 days after the election result has been declared. This maximum two-week window following the announcement of election results is when parties will have an opportunity to take stock of their performance and negotiate with potential coalition partners where needed.

The President's term of office ends when the person next elected President assumes office, as does that of the cabinet.

Election of a new President

The Chief Justice must call a first sitting of the new Parliament no more than 14 days after the announcement of the election results. These must be announced within seven days of the election. An election date of 29 May therefore means the first sitting of the new Parliament must take place no later than 19 June (21 days in total following the election).

At its first sitting, the National Assembly, presided over by the Chief Justice, must elect a Speaker and the President. The Chief Justice calls for nominations for these positions and then announces the names of the nominees before a vote can be taken.

If only one candidate is nominated, that candidate is elected by default. If there are two or more candidates, the person who gets the majority of votes is elected, however if there is no clear winner (ie someone who gets more than 50% of votes in the National Assembly), the person with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and the vote is held again. This process is repeated until there is a winner or only two candidates remain. In the (unlikely) event that there are only two candidates and those two candidates receive the same number of votes, a further meeting must be held within seven days for the process to be repeated.

Given the low probability of two candidates repeatedly getting the same number of votes, it is highly unlikely that a President will not be elected and a government formed, even in the absence of a formal coalition and no party having a clear majority.

This means while a coalition may be preferable to provide a measure of stability and ensure the governing party is able to pass legislation and budgets, it is possible for a party with less than 50% of the vote to form a minority government.

However, in the absence of a stable coalition, a President elected in this way would be vulnerable at any point to a vote of no confidence which, if carried by a majority, would result in the dissolution of the cabinet. Such a government would also be obliged to cobble together sufficient support from opposition parties on an ad hoc basis to pass budgets and legislation, which would entail significant bartering and compromise in each case.

The ANC, in this event, will have lost the ability to impose policy unilaterally and would have to get used to making trade-offs. Legislating in this scenario would be extremely complex for the ANC, and potentially

incoherent, as it would be forced to assemble a majority for each piece of legislation, opening the path for niche interests to gain disproportionate influence via minority parties.

Latest polling

A minority government is an increasingly plausible scenario with the arrival of the MK Party and its potential to reduce the ANC to about 40% of the vote, according to some polling.

If correct, this would make it more difficult for the ANC to assemble a coalition with minor parties to constitute a majority in Parliament – leaving it with a choice of trying to lure either the EFF or DA into a coalition if it wanted to avoid forming a minority government.

The latest tracking poll from the Social Research Foundation shows a steady improvement for the ANC since mid-April, climbing from 37.8% to 45.2% as at May 10 (high turnout scenario). This may indicate the party’s election machine and the deployment of high-profile veterans is beginning to gain traction. Conversely, support for the MK Party has ebbed, from a high of 14.3% on April 18 to 7.4% currently, while the IFP’s position has improved (2.7% - 5.4%). The SRF’s polling accuracy is untested against actual election results and the usual caveats about polls apply.

On the other hand, the latest Ipsos poll (April 27) suggests the MK Party is mostly eating into EFF support, reducing the latter from 19.6% in February to 11.5% in April at national level, with the MK Party sitting at 8.4% - very close to the drop in the EFF share. The ANC, meanwhile, has held more or less steady in Ipsos polling at just over 40%.

An ANC-EFF coalition at national level would therefore potentially have a razor-thin majority (51.7%) if the election results matched the latest Ipsos polling. Such an arrangement would be vulnerable to factional rebellion in key Parliamentary votes, where the result could come down to the attendance or otherwise of all coalition MPs on the day. Maintaining party discipline could prove challenging, as has been witnessed at local government level.

The DA, as part of the Multi-Party Charter agreement, has pledged not to enter a coalition with the ANC, however party leader John Steenhuisen has given mixed messages on this, suggesting that the pledge only holds if the MPC is in a position to form a majority.

Although there is little if any discernible upside for the DA in co-governing with the ANC – which would take the credit if the coalition proves successful, but drag the DA down with it if it doesn’t – it has been suggested that the business lobby (and major donors) would not allow the DA to push the ANC into the arms of the EFF by refusing a partnership of some kind.

This could mean the DA would agree to support the ANC in key votes – Budgets and motions of no confidence in particular – without entering a formal coalition.

Provincial outlook

Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal are shaping up to be the most contested provinces.

In Gauteng, it is possible that no party will get more than 35%, and only the ANC and DA could combine for a two-party majority, with about 60% of the vote between them, according to SRF polling (the April Ipsos poll does not have a provincial breakdown). Although the provincial ANC and EFF have given strong indications that they would be open to a partnership, they may need a third party to assemble a majority, with only about 44% between them in current SRF polling.

Alternatively, there is a remote possibility that a DA-led coalition, which would have to include multiple smaller parties, could eke out a slim majority in Gauteng, should an ANC-EFF combination fail to attract another partner.

In KwaZulu-Natal, the SRF puts the ANC at 35%, MK at 26%, IFP at 18% and DA at 17%, with the EFF reduced to 1% since the emergence of MK. This opens multiple pathways to a majority: ANC-MK, ANC-IFP, ANC-DA, or other combinations. However, there is currently no combination that could exclude the ANC entirely in KZN.

Provincial coalition dynamics could influence discussions at the national level. For example, a Kwazulu-Natal multiparty coalition could potentially be replicated in a national government, creating more opportunities for reciprocal trade-offs to ensure greater stability.

Motions of no confidence

A motion of no confidence in either the Cabinet or the President can be carried by a simple majority in the National Assembly. If a motion of no confidence is passed against the Cabinet, the President must appoint a new Cabinet. If such a motion is passed against the President, both the President and Cabinet must resign and a vote for a new President must be held.

Unless a stable coalition involving a limited number of committed partners is formed, motions of no confidence and multiple changes of government could become a feature of the emerging politics at national and provincial level.