How close we are to the Tipping points of extreme climatic events.

How close we are to the Tipping points of extreme climatic events.

As the temperature of the earth has start rising with the hockey stick graph pattern, and still we are happily marching for keeping this momentum but the consequences can be very catastrophic and will Not like the turning of a dial, but the flipping of a switch. Once done that wouldn’t be easily flipped back.

This is because if the phenomenon of GHGs emission continuous may soon hit some tipping points that will make this an irreversible process.

"In this article, we will explore some of Earth's tipping points—critical areas of concern where feedback loops accelerate environmental changes, creating a dangerous cycle that turns gradual trends into exponential ones.

Some key examples of feedback loops include:

a) Oceans & Seas: Warmer oceans lead to increased CO2 emissions, which in turn trap more heat in the atmosphere, further raising ocean temperatures.

b) Land: Higher temperatures allow the air to hold more water vapor, a potent greenhouse gas, which contributes to even more warming.

c) Snow & Ice: As temperatures rise, more ice melts. This reduces the Earth's reflectivity, leading to greater heat absorption and further accelerating the melting process."

? Himalayas & Himalayan states.

1)???Himalayas have worked a lot in global cooling and if not treated well will amplify the rate of global warming by speeding it up to double or quadruple the speed of global warming much beyond human predications, some observation to elaborate this

?? Greater than the average temperature rise is observed in this region some of the formulated reasons are:-

a)?????? Plain region sunlight is easily reflected back as the surface is plain whereas due to steep demography of Himalayan region the reflection happens across the walls of the hills that result in high heat absorption because of less snow cover and less albedo.

b)????? EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS -More vaporization will happen due heated water bodies ?in sync with increases moisture carrying capacity of atmosphere (with increase ?temp) will lead to more severe and uncontrolled monsoon that will result in more floods and soil erosion and ?can also change the crop harvesting and plantation cycle.

c)?????? Rain is moving towards higher altitude area where only snow use to fall that results in rapid snow melting and erosion with high kinetic energy of water.

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2)????? Glaciers retreat – From last 100 years most of the Himalayan glaciers terminus points have retreated in in a rapid manner,

a)????One of the example is? Pindari glacier whose terminus point ?have retreated to more than ?3KM ?.

a)?????? Reason for this is not only global warming but also the black carbon deposited.

?Aerosol that are generated by industrial waste, forest fire and others are covering the Himalayan snow and results in absorbing the heat that was meant to be reflected, hence amplifying the glacier melting. - Also called snow darkening effect.

-This uneven Himalayan glacier melt will effect the Indus (40%) , Ganga & Brahmaputra(5-10%).

c) Another study, published in the same year, by the Diwecha Centre for Climate Change estimates that in 40 years the Himalayas had lost about 13 per cent of its glaciers, equivalent to about 443 billion tonnes of ice.

3) ??? The alarming and most dangerous situation-(Outburst deadly floods)

a) With the retardation of the terminus points of glacier the depression that was created by glaciers is now filled with water bodies, and huge water lakes.

a)??Now this lake size and nos are increasing at a rapid manner with the temp rise. (Photo attached).

b)???Now the lake that is formed at he moraine(landform made of rock and dirt left behind by a moving glacier) can be disturbed by any event(such as heavy precipitation, erosions etc) as it is a newly built lake and the area beneath will have a certain capacity that may be breached.

c)???Once the lake volume goes beyond the critical limits or bearing of water then it will burst out also called GLOF.(Glacier lake outburst flood) and biggest example is Kedarnath disaster 2013.& Sikkim floods-2023.

d)???Frequency of such event is increasing from last decade.

Now these Himalayan states that have the least per capita energy consumption compared to nation or world but these folks are highly vulnerable to climatic events compared to the one who are the massive GHG emitters.

Global tipping points that will proliferate the heating and most of them are irreversible :

1.?????? Mass Death of Coral Reefs

o??? Coral bleaching occurs due to heat, causing expulsion of algae. Reefs can recover if conditions improve.

o??? Without action, 70%-90% of reef-building corals may die in coming decades, possibly 99%.

Some hardier corals may survive, but ecosystems will be altered significantly

2) Abrupt Thawing of Permafrost

o??? Thawing permafrost releases carbon, worsening climate change through CO? and methane emissions.

o??? The speed and impact of thawing are unpredictable, but large areas are already unfrozen.

o??? Ignoring the risk is seen as a mistake by scientists.

3.????? Collapse of Greenland Ice

o??? Melting is accelerated by lowering ice surfaces, which exposes more of it to warmer air.

o??? Greenland has been ice-free before, and another major melt could disrupt ocean currents globally.

1.?????? Breakup of West Antarctica Ice

o??? West Antarctic glaciers melt from warm water, causing floating ice to weaken and break.

o??? The ice sheet has collapsed in the past, and its melting could reshape global coastlines.

2.?????? Sudden Shift in West African Monsoon

o??? The Sahara has flipped between desert and green states, and the West African monsoon might shift again.

o??? This would greatly affect livelihoods in regions dependent on rainfall.

3.?????? Loss of Amazon Rainforest

o??? The Amazon is essential for maintaining weather patterns and storing carbon.

o??? Deforestation and climate change could degrade the forest into savanna by 2050, altering ecosystems.

4.?????? Atlantic Sea Currents

o??? The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) influences weather and rainfall.

o??? Greenland’s melting ice may slow or stop this ocean circulation, affecting Europe and the tropics.

?With a carbon ?budget of 570GTs and target for reaching net zero emission by 2050 we will still be crossing the 1.5degree by 2050 and 2 degree mark by 2100 if continue to proceed with the current trends ,practices and habits.

Retrofitting the Global North while fostering greener growth in the Global South is imperative at this critical juncture. The actions we take now will shape the future of humanity. While Earth itself may endure a 2, 3, or even 4-degree temperature rise—having once existed at -18°C—it is mankind that faces the true consequences. It is up to us to ensure a sustainable and liveable planet for future generations