How cleantech will evolve in the next years

Developments in Clean Technologies sectors are mostly driven by policies of USA and EU. Over the recent history, these economies assumed the leadership role in moving all industries towards cleaner, more efficient and more sustainable practices. Newly-elected Joe Biden announced $2T investments in clean energy technology over the next four years. At the same time, the EU launches the EU Green Deal – a much more elaborated plan, although not so bold in numbers. For the coming financial execution, it seems that the budget for renewables would sum up to about 55B.

A survey done by NfX that can be seen here shows the confidence boost the cleantech sector received, mostly from the outcome of the U.S. elections. Is this optimism extendable to Europe?

In a much harsher environment for SMEs, with more bureaucracy, heavier taxation, and less subsidies, the EU Green Deal seems to be just another fancy document title which does not generate sufficient momentum.

Is it really so? What are the perspectives in the Clean Technology branches in the EU, over the coming years? I’ll go shortly through them one by one:

Clean Electrical Energy

In the last years, the cost of renewable energy has evolved in the right direction. Solar and on-shore wind sources are now beating all conventional sources in terms of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Their attractiveness is still somewhat affected by the higher degree of uncertainty and long-term storage problems.

The move towards more off-shore, prioritized by the Union, is, in this context, the right decision. However, the new industrial advancements combined with small local storage units, could increase the level of reliance on distributed energy sources. I believe that IoT and machine learning have to be implemented a lot more and a lot faster in the energy sector, from centralized generation, transportation and distribution, to distributed generation and storage, and to the use of energy.

Clean Transportation

The EU seems to part ways from USA in terms of clean transportation. With the success of TESLA Motors on the market, USA tends to push on developing this technology of BEVs in the whole transportation sector. In the meantime, EU does not believe in the electric vehicle on its own, and tries to focus towards hydrogen technology and generation of clean hydrogen.

In both cases, the strategies seem to be more directed by the interests of the local businesses, and not by a widely accepted solution. While investing in hydrogen can bring other positives along the way, it does not justify leaving out the BEVs. The battery – at least how it is today – is, for sure, not a solution for aircraft industry. Therefore leaving out hydrogen production is also missing the target.

Circular Economy and Waste

The European Union is not showing sufficient assertiveness in the removal of oil-based plastics off the market. While there is a long-term goal to have only recyclable plastics on the market, it is not clear how would this be achieved, and how EU is encouraging it (except the bold statement on a flyer). It is clear that compared to other large political units, Europe is way better in waste disposal and recycling. Still, the room for improvement is huge.

Especially after the pandemic, the use of disposable plastics and masks has sky-rocketed. We wear them in the shops, in the trains and, in some places, even on the streets. We have only take-away, we eat from Styrofoam containers with plastic cutlery, clean ourselves with wet wipes. These all aggravate the problem. We have all seen the used up blue masks thrown in lakes, in the forests, or on the street, so let’s not kid ourselves. The panic, the frustration, and the unknown made many of our fellow citizens degrade their attitude towards recycling and disposal.

There is a case I’m trying to make here: instead of trying to point fingers at each other, we should have our decision factors invest in removing the problem altogether. Not everything what is recyclable is good, not everything what isn’t, is bad. Biodegradable is probably more important nowadays.

The F-word

I should clarify: here, F stands for Future. In times of an ongoing health crisis, this subject seems to be out of scope, maybe even a tabu subject. We’re close to adding it to George Carlin’s list of seven words you can’t say on TV. All discussions and activities are focused on the now: three more hours until new restriction policy is announced, three more weeks of lockdown, three more months until warmer days and better chances.

But what do we leave behind us at the end of this crisis? Did we burned the crops and poisoned the wells? Or will we realize that we cannot turn 50 years back?

The political leadership has the authority, the responsibility, and moral obligation to address not only the pandemic, but also all the consequences it brings along.

The following topics are, in my opinion, most relevant challenges we will face:

·        To get to carbon neutrality, the LCOE of renewables needs to decrease even more. Preferably to the point in which decommissioning of conventional sources becomes economically attractive. Reducing subsidies for conventional sources is not yet achievable. The change would impact too many people too fast, and the result wouldn’t be an automatic growth of share of renewables, but probably a growth of imports.

• The intelligent connected grid, with sources and storage units that “learn” the behavior of the consumer is, in my belief, critical for the growth of sustainability and advance towards carbon neutrality. Without it, the progress is still way too slow to be revolutionary.
• Cleaning the transportation sector cannot rely on one solution. Redundancies have to be in place, and a safe supply chain for hydrogen is still to be established.
• Circular economy has to refocus on the pollution generated by retail consumers, and remove the problem as a whole. More and more biodegradable alternatives for oil based plastics exist, and diversity of sources is the right answer for a sustainable replacement of it.

In the years to come, we will face more and more pandemics. We have the opportunity to learn now and prepare better in the future. Laziness is not an option, it will lead us to avoid social regression.

What other developments you think will we need in the cleantech sector urgently?