How Can We Be So Sure?

Growing up in the 1950s and 60s, car ownership was not like it is today.?There were usually only one car per family and the choices were much more limited then—almost nothing of the Japanese, European and American cars that have come to dominate our highways and driveways.?And we lived in the poor part of a country town, so the limitations were even more pronounced.

I first became aware of cars as a thing when I was about 9—when my parents traded-in the Morris Oxford for a used FJ Holden.?Later we graduated to a used EH Holden—just before I got my driver’s licence.?I was then able to play out my beliefs about cars—it was washed and polished, it was vacuumed and wiped, the tyres we painted black, often.?It gleamed.?My 3 younger brothers were not allowed to mess it up by riding in it or even breathing on it.?It was the means by which I could impress my friends and attract the girls.

There was no doubt in my mind. Car ownership and care was paramount—to the extent that this was what defined a man.?Anyone who didn’t care the same for their car was something less of a man.?At the pinnacle in my car world then was my dad’s friend, Jim the farmer, who had an EH Premier that he kept spotless.?He even let me drive it as a 16 year old—even taking it up to 80Ks for a short burst on gravel.

But how did this thing about cars become such a deeply held belief?

When there is no doubt, by default, this becomes a truth.?Truths are what guide our decision making.?Many of them together make us shape our behaviour and makes us who we are.

But how can we be so sure??It seemed such a worthy explanation at the time.?There was no contradiction.?The person taking this on as an absolute truth (me, the child into teenager) was highly impressionable—totally receptive to new information, particularly about the way the world worked.

The source of this truth was my most highly, respected of authorities, my father. Then in teenage, my older brother was to take the concept even further, customizing a Morris Minor. Their ideas of car ownership and care were corroborated by other men around us.?Those with fancy were our heroes.?

So, this truth locked not into my logical brain, my prefrontal cortex, but in my limbic brain—my subconscious.?This message, that I had adopted as the undoubtable truth, was frequently confirmed over the years, and without contradiction; I even sought out examples that took the model to even higher standards.?No other concept was put to me, although I did encounter inferior examples that led me to confirm my adoption of the bias that I had already formed.

This is where, under pressure, my/our behaviour comes from—quickly, automatically and assuredly, where there is no doubt.

It’s what Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman has championed as System 1 and System 2 thinking: ??System 1 is the automatic response; System 2 is the slower, more considered response.

System 1 is gullible and biased to believe.?The confirmatory bias of System 1 wants only evidence to support its impressions, it favours uncritical acceptance and exaggeration of the likelihood of external events.?

But could our deeply held impressions be wrong??

System 2 seeks to test hypotheses—search for confirming evidence, conduct a “positive test strategy” and by proving hypotheses by trying to refute them.?System 2 is in charge of doubting sometimes and unbelieving but it is also busy and often lazy—we are more likely to be influenced by ads when we are tired and depleted (when we revert to System 1).?

We need to make room for doubt; having no doubt could be a marker for error.?And we need to reflect.

So, have I come to be less sure about what I held as an absolute truth?

I still like to keep my modest modern car gleaming on the outside and clean and uncluttered on the inside.

And holding the wisdom of doubt.

?Next week:?The Power of Stories

?About the Author

Jeff Bell?is Principal of executive consultancy ResultsWise in Perth, Western Australia.?To boost your leadership, ask Jeff about consulting, coaching, strategy facilitation, Band of Leaders Australia (BoLA) ?[email protected] or Advanced Leadership Course [email protected]. Mobile (61) 439 988 662. ?