How Can We Reduce Crime?

Crime is more predictable than you might think — especially in terms of where and when it’s committed. So why does it sometimes feel that things are spinning out of control? We take a look at the latest research … and what’s preventing police from using it.

[SCRIPT]

We’ve all seen the images.

Some of us have experienced it for ourselves.

In recent years, crime in the U.S. has seemed like it’s spinning out of control.

At times, the violence and disorder seemed totally random.

But here’s the thing: it wasn’t.

Because social scientists have discovered that, when it comes to crime in America … there are rules.

A lot of them.

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Americans are getting uneasy about crime.

In just the five years between 2018 and 2023, the proportion of the public that said that crime rates were a serious problem for the country jumped from 48 percent to 63 percent — a number higher than at any time this century.

Is all that anxiety justified?

The answer to that question is … “yes.” And “no.” And “we kinda don’t know.”

Here’s what we mean.

If you wanted to argue that we’re overreacting, you could point to the fact that crime in America is a lot lower than it was a few decades ago.

If you wanted to argue that our fears are justified, you could point to statistics like the one-year increase in murders between 2019 and 2020 being the highest that America has seen since 1905.

Which, side note: Who knew 1905 was so violent?

Oh. Right.

As for the case for “we kinda don’t know,” our most reliable statistics on crime come from the FBI’s compilation of local police data from around the country — and in 2022, only 44 percent of the country’s police agencies actually submitted their full data for the year. Nearly 1/3 of them — including New York City and Los Angeles — didn’t submit any data at all. So in many cases we don’t actually have a good idea what’s going on — which is why you hear plausible arguments on both sides of this issue.

But here’s where things get interesting: While there’s a lot we don’t know about what’s happened over the past few years, there’s a lot we do know about how crime works in general. Scholars have found clear patterns at work here.

One of the biggest findings: Even when there are a large number of crimes … they tend to be committed by a relatively small number of people.

In fact, it’s estimated that between 2-5 percent of criminals — not 2-5 percent of the entire population, just of the lawbreakers — are responsible for at least 50 percent of crimes. As one scholar notes, that means that a hypothetical city with 100,000 criminals could cut its crime rate in half just by locking up the 5,000 worst offenders.

And you can see examples of this throughout the country.

One study of gang violence in Boston found that more than 60 percent of youth homicides in the city were committed by less than one percent of its youth population.

In 2022, nearly 1/3 of the shoplifting in New York City — a city of over eight million residents — was perpetrated by just 327 people — who, between them, were arrested and rearrested more than 6,000 times.

And here’s the thing about these repeat offenders: It probably wouldn’t be that hard to find them — because crime is also extremely concentrated by location.

One analysis of New York City found that about five percent of the city’s streets were responsible for about 50 percent of its crime.

And that’s far from the only example. In fact, analysis from the Brookings Institution notes that this hyper-concentration of crime has been found “in every city or non-urban setting in which it has been studied.”

So … a relatively small number of people in a relatively small number of places and — get this — in a relatively small number of circumstances. Because researchers have also found that violent crime in these places is much more likely to happen at night. And on the weekends. And during the summer.

All of which makes it sound like we could do an awful lot to reduce crime if we just made a concentrated effort to go after the most dangerous people in the most dangerous places.

So, … why isn’t every city in America doing that?

There are a lot of answers to that question, but one big one is that criminal justice policy is set by politicians, politicians usually try to give the public what they want, and the public’s intuitions about how crime in America works … often don’t match the reality.

How does this play out in practice?

Americans want to make sure that people who end up in prison really deserve it. After all, it’s no small thing to take someone’s freedom away and change the course of their entire life.

And in many places in the country that has led people to worry that we shouldn’t be locking people up just because they made one bad decision, or were casual drug users, or were driven to crime by poverty.

And here’s the good news: All of those things happen much less often than you might think.

Poverty? A 2023 analysis from the Federal Reserve that examined seven major American cities found the highest homicide rates in Philadelphia and Chicago — which were also the cities in the study with the lowest poverty rates.

In New York City, the number of murders declined by 87 percent between 1990 and 2018. Yet the city’s poverty rate at the end of that era was slightly higher than at the start of it.

People being put away for drugs? Across state prison systems — where the overwhelming majority of America’s prisoners are held — only 14 percent of prisoners are in primarily for a drug offense. And the vast majority of those are for drug trafficking, not drug possession.

And as for people making one bad decision? That doesn’t really describe our prison population. Not only do a lot of criminals get second chances, they also get thirds. And fourths. Most people who get locked up have long criminal histories — an average of about 11 prior arrests.

Bottom line: Crime may feel chaotic, but that doesn’t mean it’s random. The data shows us clear patterns. And if policymakers want to make their cities safer, they can start with some of the lessons the research provides.

And failing that they could always just call this guy:

Yeah, believe it or not, he was a cop too. Because of course he was.

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Kite & Key Media?is a research and evidence-driven organization. Our videos take as their sources cutting-edge research in universities, think tanks, books, and journalistic outlets. We rely on these sources because we believe that conversations about important issues should be rooted in an understanding of the underlying facts. Follow?our LinkedIn page for more updates.