HOW CAN IMPROVE MY JUDGEMENT, ESPECIALLY ON COMPLEX, HIGH-STAKE DECISIONS?

In recent months, and faced with many life-changing decisions to make, I have pondered this all-important question "How can I improve my judgement on complex, high-stake decisions?". Several simple yet effective practices have helped me in this goal.

For one, when something goes bad, I don't automatically assume I did something wrong. Instead I ask myself "What policy was I following that produced this outcome, and do I still expect that policy to give the best results overall, occasional bad outcomes nonwithstanding?". If the answer is yes, I carry on with that policy or set of practices. Doing so ensures that you act in a consistent manner with an establish policy that suits your operating framework and values, and works for you long-term, even when factoring in occasional mishaps.

Another practice I value is avoiding most generic recommendations, and replacing them with a constant effort to accurately perceive my own situation (even if this truth is not flattering), my possible options, and the tradeoffs involved. What works for others does not necessarily work for me. Good judgement is what allows me to evaluate whether a recommendation is appropriate to my situation or not. This fosters me to take calculated risks, the emphasis being on the "calculated" word. As I always say, "A life without risk is very risky indeed!".

One distraction I have learned to avoid is consuming media that is just telling me what I already know or agree with. That stuff is addictive because it feels so validating, yet it presents the bigger danger to creativity, judgement, empathy, curiosity, understanding, and decision-making.

When I find myself torn between two options (such as two job offers), and it's clear to me that the stakes are high, but it's not clear which option is better, I remember an important principle which governs most of my decision-making processes: Uncertainty over expected value (EV) just gets folded into EV. so, if I know that one of option A or B is going to be great and the other is going to be bad, but I am unsure which is which, then they hold the same EV to me. That's a powerful reframe! Of course this assumes that I have previously gathered all pertinent information about both options and that no additional information or data can help the decision-making process. I know that "relax and stop worrying" is often easier said than done, but if I can't tell which option is the better choice, then for all intends and purposes, they're equally good choice...

Onwards and Upwards always! Bertrand Petyt