How can humanity survive the next 100 years? A novel blockchain aproach.

INTRO

How to manage to sail around the global risks. We struggle. Where does it go wrong?

Handling Covid shows us that our leadership fails.

We are used to letting leaders decide what is best. The EU uses the World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risks Report. It's based upon over 650 global leaders' opinions. The report writes "officials often face a shared dilemma in decision-making: deciding which risks to accept". EU puts climate ontop. There are many more of those reports that look quite similar. Cambridge report puts wars first. There is also the UN WorldRiskIndex 2019 

Sorting out what "risk" deserves priority is based upon the ritual we call politics. For most people, it feels like a tit for that Ponzi scheme. The estimated probability for human extinction before 2100 probability is 19% Wiki tells us. We need to sort out what our real risk is. Then allocate our resources to reduce that risk.

THE ISSUE

2019 global risk reports do not mention an pandemic on top.

Many other descisions are handled wrong too. We managed to organize two world wars recently. That war was not made by Hitler alone, all 32 democracies did let the brute go on too long. Just like we all did not prepare for Covid after the devestating Spanish flue with 60 mio deaths.

THE PROBLEM

Human leadership is probably the greatest threat to mankind.

It's the leader who pushes the nuclear button that causes harm. The bomb itself sleeps quite harmless by default. It's the leadership that neglected climate change, just like our leaders missed to foresee this pandemic.

We should also realise that if we calculate the pandemic risk wrong, all other risks listed are calculated wrong too.

We probably solve the wrong problem the wrong way.

It would be terrible if we solve the wrong risk and cause a failure for another. When the solution cannot be found It’s probably the problem definition where it goes wrong. That's why a good selection matters. Here is the famous problem-solving cycle to pinpoint our problem.

Leadership typically does not see itself as the problem. Sadly they are our problem and we should look for something better. It's also not easy to make such a risk assessment. Compare it to the pricing system by the free market. Humans cannot compare apples to pears (red risks) and are also unable to sort out the priorities. This is how we allocate our resources best.

Why do we allocate resources to avoid risks in another way than we allocate the resources in our economies?

Historically the task to avoid big external risks was a task of the military. Generals used to take full control over the planning. We know that wars are often a resource and planning drama also. The general loses his job and friends on the battlefield. WW2 was not won on the battlefield but in the factories. By producing better, using free-market production the west did win their wars. The adversaries just did use corrupt central planning. Communism in the USSR could not manage its plan and fail. It's time for leaders to explain their global risk calculations after the Covid failure. 

THE SOLUTION

I sugest to build a blockchain based system to calculate global risks.

The blockchain benefits are: full traceable, or immutable (write-only), safe, and secure (encrypted, decentralized copied ). The blockchain is tractable & transparent because all transactions are logged and stored securely offering immutable history and an audit trail. Security & trust are based upon the integrity of transactions, guaranteed via cryptography and cross-checks. Eliminating virtual human error or bias (tamper-proof). More trust was provided via consensus between all members after comparing the cross-checks of the totals. 

The blockchain can capture better soft risk variables and negative values and makes calculating global risks possible. Many already believe that a blockchain can capture the global values chain, finance, and negative external effects like pollution.

The insurance already industry does value risk, so there is probably someone who wants to insure. Let the free market set a reasonable price Let a mix of governments and/or investors choose who protects us best. The blockchain is decentral and can share power more easy then governments or leaders. A decentral large insurance grid is best made using the blockchain technology for both technical and power-sharing reasons.

I believe I just presented a new way to look at any risk in a broader sense. This risk management works for any organization. It's better and simple to value a risk just as we do with a negative external effect. We all do see that the autoriatrian way Covid freezes our economies is not optimal. It's because we never calculated the economic loss. How can goverments decide proper if the price is unkown? A pricing mechanisme can help to decide better. Just like we trust markets for allocation issues. Just like we recently invented to trade emissions to get rid of pollution. Why not trade, tax, and insure all our risks? 

We owe it to the people and the world to build this solution! Please do wrtite me to see the blueprint!

Here I wrote a 2 line, one minute, explanation of what the blockchain is: “The Milkman as an analogy for the Blockchain”. There you find more related articles also. My article "Systemic Racism solved" is popular too.

The next read is about the TOOLBOX I do offer you to root out this error. This toolbox is needed on top of the blockchain is needed to maintain and enforce non-discrimination proof systems.

Please help to avoid next disater by sharing this solution. Especially leaders! We need to change the way we organize ourselves after Covid.

Copyright Arnoud Berghuis. March 2021.

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