How can Europe reinforce security cooperation and coherence after Trump's victory?
The consequences for Europe of the re-election of President Donald Trump are far-reaching. The impacts will be felt across the board, including on the European economy, trade, technology, climate, democracy and security.
On security, Trump's victory has increased uncertainty over the continuation of the current US guarantee for European allies, and over the support the US will provide to Ukraine. Europe will need to step up: by investing more in its own security and by increasing Ukraine support. A stronger European security response will depend crucially on the European defence industrial base.
Increasing national defence budgets, as Poland, for example, has done very convincingly, should be complemented by EU funding instruments. But larger budgets alone will not be enough, especially if production capacities increase too slowly and most of the budget increase is absorbed by higher prices. To be effective, a European defence industrial strategy will need to focus on bringing down the costs of defence products while scaling-up production. Barriers to defence market integration impede production scale and cost effectiveness. So does imperfect enforcement of NATO standards.
The EU could play a greater role in boosting industrial capacities through funding mechanisms, removal of market barriers, enforcement of standards and joint procurement. For this, greater cooperation between national defence ministries, NATO and EU institutions will be crucial. The establishment of a regular dialogue between the European Commission and NATO is welcome. Trump’s election makes deeper European security cooperation a necessity. The new European defence Commissioner will need to play a crucial role in deepening security cooperation between the EU and NATO. Will Europe be ready?