How to Build a Theory of Change for Program Learning

Hello and welcome to the 3rd edition of Learn Adapt Manage. Thank you to the 872 subscribers ?? walking this journey of using #evidence to inform decisions and actions in #internationaldevelopment. Sign up by clicking the Subscribe button in the upper right corner to get future editions directly to your feed.

In the 2nd edition, we discussed identifying and documenting good-quality lessons learned. One of the preconditions for us to learn is knowing what we expect to happen due to our actions. If we know what to expect, we can easily detect a mismatch.

In this edition, we take a step back and discuss the Theory of Change (ToC) as a tool for program learning and adaptive management. Our focus today will be on understanding what a theory of change is and how development practitioners can build a theory of change that can be used for program learning and adaptive management.

What is a Program Theory of Change (ToC)?

There are multiple definitions of theories of change out there. There are also numerous uses of theories of change. Some common uses include accountability, communication, performance monitoring management tools, and learning. I will offer three definitions that I find helpful and some guidance on what practitioners need to think about as they build their program theories of change for learning.

‘Theory of Change’ is a way to describe the set of assumptions that explain both the mini-steps that lead to the long term goal of interest and the connections between program activities and outcomes that occur at each step of the way (Carol Weiss, 1995)

A theory of change is a method that explains how a given intervention, or set of interventions, is expected to lead to specific development change, drawing on a causal analysis based on available evidence (United Nations Development Group, Companion Guidance, Theory of Change)

A theory of change is a particular approach for making underlying assumptions explicit and using the desired outcomes of a project as a mechanism to guide planning, implementation, and evaluation (Reinholz, D.L., Andrews, T.C., 2020)

What makes a Good-Quality Theory of Change that can be used for Program Learning?

Based on these definitions, a good-quality theory of change should be able to answer the following questions;

1. What development problem is the program trying to solve?
2. Has existing evidence related to the development problem been reviewed? Evidence can be from secondary sources or primary data from stakeholders working on the same development problem. Leveraging existing knowledge allows the program to contribute to generalizable knowledge through lessons learned.
3. What is the context under which the program will be implemented? This should include an overview of the current state of the problem or issue and how it affects local ecosystems and populations. Some vital contextual issues to be analyzed include baseline analysis of the problem and issue, mapping of actors, stakeholders, and power relations in the context, and stakeholders' receptiveness to new evidence.
4. What are the intended results of the program? What effects will the program achieve? These should be well-defined and specific. (outcomes)
5. What must happen for the intended results to be achieved? (outputs) These are products or services produced by the program activities. They should be measurable.
6. What will the implementors do to address the causes of the development problem effectively? (activities) These are tasks that the team will be doing on a day-to-day basis to produce the outputs.
7. Are the causal pathways between components presented? How are things connected? What happens next? What else needs to be happening to support this change?
8. What conditions need to remain the same for the program to achieve the intended results? (assumptions) Under what conditions does this theory work? For each link between activity and output, and output and outcome, identify assumptions that must hold if the program is to work as expected.
9. What factors beyond the organization’s control can affect program outputs and outcomes? (risks) These are risks that threaten the achievement of your results. These include environmental, economic, political, behavioral, or financial risks.

Theories of Change versus Logic Models. Is there a difference?

The CDC Framework for Program Evaluation defines a logic model as “a graphic depiction (road map) that presents the shared relationships among your program’s resources, activities, outputs, and outcomes/impacts. It depicts the relationship between your program’s activities and intended effects in an implicit ‘if-then’ relationship among the program elements. If I do this activity, then I expect this outcome. Among other things, a logic model helps clarify the boundary between ‘what’ the program is doing and ‘so what’—the changes intended to result from strong implementation of the “what.”

Based on this definition and what we just learned about a good quality theory of change, you can see that most logic models leave out, at least as part of the graphic illustration, critical components of the theory of change that are essential for learning. I like the diagram above by Dhillion (2018), which shows the relationship between logic models and theories of change based on the depth of information provided.

Most programs have detailed theories of change in a narrative form, and some elements are presented graphically. The key here is to ensure that your visual considers all critical elements of a theory of change, including the assumptions and mechanisms.

In conclusion, here is what Harries, Hodgson, and Noble (2014) say about a theory of change,

"A theory of change is often represented in a diagram or chart, but a full theory of change process involves more than this. It should help you consider and articulate the assumptions and enablers that surround your work and explain why you think your activities will lead to the outcomes you want. It should also challenge you to develop clear aims and strategies and explore whether your plans are supported by evidence. By the end of a theory of change process, you should have a clear idea of what your organisation or project wants to achieve and a strategy to do this."

In this edition, I 1) defined theories of change, 2) identified questions to help us decide if our theory of change is of good quality and can support program learning, and 3) shared some critical differences between logic models and theories of change.

Having a hypothesis is the basis for program learning. Once you have built a good quality theory of change, what's next? In the next edition, we explore how to use the theory of change for learning!

Thank you?? for reading! What are your key takeaways from this edition? Please let me know in the comments section below ?? and share this newsletter with others you think would benefit.

References

1. Reinholz, D.L., Andrews, T.C. Change theory and theory of change: What’s the difference anyway? IJ STEM Ed 7, 2 (2020).
2. Mary Kay Gugerty, Dean Karlan, and Delia Welsh GOLDILOCKS DEEP DIVE Guiding Your Program to Build a Theory of Change (2016).
3. Carol Weiss Nothing as Practical as Good Theory: Exploring Theory-Based Evaluation for Comprehensive Community Initiatives for Children and Families (2011).
4. Dhillon, L., & Vaca, S. (2018). Refining Theories of Change. Journal of Multidisciplinary Evaluation, 14(30), 64–87.

Florence Randari?is a Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) professional who seeks to provide evidence-based guidance to international development actors so that they can achieve sustainable development. She is also a Collaboration, Learning, and Adaptation (CLA) practitioner seeking to empower all implementors with the required knowledge and skills to apply CLA principles in their day-to-day work.