How Bristol County's Soaring Rents Could Be Fixed by Copying the Next Governor of Rhode Island

Grace Ferguson of The New Bedford Light wrote a good story this week on Bristol County’s housing woes. I’m quoted giving some New Bedford-specific perspective. I’ve had a few other thoughts this week on housing I thought I'd share. (This first appeared in Twitter thread form here )

Bristol County has outpaced other counties in housing cost spikes. Perhaps the % is higher because rent amounts were lower to start with, mostly in NB and Fall River. You know who else has this problem? Rhode Island.

Most of Rhode Island is close enough to New Bedford and Fall River to be in the same housing market. At People Acting in Community Endeavors , we see a lot of clients moving to and from RI for money reasons. We’re so close and similar, in fact, we’re in the same media market! That’s how I know housing is a problem there too. Candidates for RI Governor have wasted a *lot* of advertising money on NB residents like me. ?

But at least I’ve picked up on something about their platforms. Every candidate sees housing production as a major issue, as advocates have been saying it is in New Bedford.

?Nellie Gorbea, who comes from the nonprofit housing world, unsurprisingly commits to building big: 17,500 new units in five years.

Incumbent Dan McKee points to his recent budget as the first big step toward tackling the problem, a $250 million production and preservation plan.?

Luis Daniel Mu?oz makes it a big plank with a variety of proposals. Matt Brown commits to “tens of thousands” of units and proposes a rent increase cap of 4%.

Helena Foulkes proposes adding $160 million over 4 years to close what she says is a 20,000 housing unit shortage statewide. She says RI has built the fewest housing units per capita of any state.

She tweeted similar sentiments back in May, citing the same statistic and saying Rhode Islanders are paying for the state’s procrastination with their own paychecks.

That rate she cites is from a report called The State of New Residential Construction in America, available here . It says Rhode Island built 1.27 new units per 1000 residents in 2021. For RI’s just over a million residents, that means ~1300 new units last year – and all the major candidates agree it didn’t do much to quell the crisis.

Shifting back to New Bedford, I think of Kevin Andrade of The Standard Times' reporting that New Bedford built 275 new units from 2011-2021.

275 new units over 10 years in a city of 100k equates to an average of 0.275 units per 1000 residents per year. So:

• RI rate: 1.27 units per 1000
• NB rate: .275 units per 1000

Gorbea and Foulkes proposals of 17,500 and 20,000 new units respectively would bring that rate to 3.3 and 3.8 units per 1000 for the next 5 years. These candidates don’t argue about “if” or affordable tax credits. They try to one-up each other on sheer volume of production.

It might be imperfect to compare New Bedford to a state with 10x the population, and these are merely campaign promises, but the per capita stats tell us something. The political will and consensus tells us something.

And when it squares with the lived experience of NB renters and homebuyers like Anthony from the NBL article:

The four-bedroom unit in New Bedford’s South End has been home to him, his wife, and their children. But in January, his landlord raised the rent by $500 a month. Anthony says the landlord has harassed him as he struggles to make the new payment.?

“He’s knocking on our door, saying ‘Where’s my f–ing rent money?’” Anthony said. He asked that his last name not be used, fearing retaliation from his landlord.

Anthony has faced rent increases in the past, but none as drastic as this one, which brought his rent from $1,000 up to $1,500 with less than a month’s notice.

... along with public policy wonks like Michael Goodman :

“For prospective renters with low and moderate incomes, it doesn’t matter that it’s 50% less than Boston — it’s more than they can afford,” said Michael Goodman, a professor of public policy at University of Massachusetts Dartmouth.

Average wages in Bristol County are also low compared to the rest of the state, making increases in housing costs more burdensome.

“The prices of other things are rising as well thanks to inflation, so it sort of adds insult to injury for those who can least afford it,” Goodman said.

And advocates like my colleagues and I, I think there’s something worthwhile there.

On the doorstep of offshore wind, SouthCoast Rail, and in response to changing market factors across the US, Greater Boston, and NB, we should be just as revved up about housing as the RI gov candidates dominating my screen time from the state next door.

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