How Banks Can Utilize Social Media Listening to Mitigate Loan Defaults - An Early Warning System for Risk Management

Dear Readers,

It is becoming more and more clear to the DMR team that the AI technology we have been developing since 2012 is an engine that can provide solutions to so many different business problems regardless of industry vertical.

This week's DMR Digest is introducing a new solution which is ideal for banks who want to create an early warning system (EWS) enhanced by social media listening to identify borrower's at risk sometimes even before the borrowers themselves know it.

This post was originally published on the DMR Blog last week and was co-authored by Peter Nathanial and myself with some help from ChatGPT.

Peter in addition to being an Advisory Board Member of DMR he is the Former Group Chief Risk Officer and member of the Executive Committee of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group, Former Global Head of Risk Oversight at Citigroup, Co-founder and Co-director of INSEAD’s Modern Governance in Banking and IDBP Programme (International Directors in Banking Programme). Co-direction and teaching on IMD’s Bank Governance program. He currently advises major financial institutions, Central Banks, Governments and other multi-lateral organisations.

Let me know what you think.

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Introduction

In an increasingly digital world, social media platforms have transformed the way individuals connect, share information, and express opinions. Banks can leverage the power of social media listening to manage loan default risks effectively. By gathering and?analysing?online posts about the companies to which they have extended loans, banks can conduct continuous commercial due diligence and identify early warning signals when debtors encounter financial difficulties. This?post?explores how banks can utilize social media listening as a strategic tool to proactively manage loan default risks and enhance their risk management practices.

I. Understanding Social Media Listening:

Social media listening?involves monitoring and?analysing online conversations, mentions, comments, and reviews across various social media platforms. It allows banks to extract valuable insights and gain real-time information about the financial health, market reputation, and business activities of the companies they have extended loans to. By employing?machine learning for?natural language processing techniques, banks can effectively identify potential red flags indicating financial difficulties and anticipate loan defaults.

II. Conducting Continuous Commercial Due Diligence:

A. Proactive Risk Assessment:?

Traditional due diligence processes primarily focus on pre-loan assessment, often failing to capture evolving risks that borrowers may face after obtaining the loan. By incorporating social media listening into their risk management framework, banks can conduct continuous commercial monitoring in addition to their due diligence during the loan underwriting or credit extension phase. This enables them to monitor ongoing developments, industry trends, and financial indicators related to their borrowers, providing a more comprehensive risk assessment. These non-traditional indicators of credit quality and borrower’s abilities to service their debts and obligations give a much fuller picture than?simple financial statements which are backward looking and often don’t provide the full story. This alternative data can also be a better predictor of borrower behaviour than historical financial statements.

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B. Real-Time Insights:

Social media platforms act as virtual marketplaces where individuals freely share their experiences, opinions, and concerns. By monitoring online posts about borrower companies, banks can gain real-time insights into their operations, financial stability, customer sentiment, and market perception. Any notable shifts, negative sentiments, or concerning patterns identified through social media listening can serve as red flags, prompting banks to investigate further and take necessary actions. As we have seen recently with the collapse of?Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank in the US, depositor sentiment played a striking role in their demise. Due to adverse online sentiment that spread very rapidly, customers and depositors caused a digital run on the bank that had never been seen or experienced before. In the case of Silicon Valley Bank, deposits were leaving at the rate of?$1 million per second for 10 hours?(or $41 billion).

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III. Early Warning Signals:

A. Detecting Financial Difficulties:?

Social media listening allows banks to identify early warning signals of potential financial difficulties faced by their borrowers. By?analysing?online conversations, comments, and reviews, banks can detect signs of operational challenges, supply chain disruptions, declining customer satisfaction, or negative market perception. These signals can help banks proactively engage with borrowers, assess their financial health, and take appropriate measures to prevent loan defaults.

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B. Amplifying Existing Risk Indicators:

Social media listening augments traditional risk indicators with additional insights derived from user-generated content. For example, a decline in positive sentiment towards a borrower company may coincide with a decrease in revenue, an increase in customer complaints, or a deteriorating market position. By integrating social media listening into their risk management framework, banks can enhance their ability to identify and act upon early warning signals, thereby mitigating loan default risks.

“Effective Early Warning Systems (EWS) reduce loan loss provisions by 10%-20% and required regulatory capital by 10%”?

Galytix paper in association with PWC

IV. Utilizing Machine Learning for Sentiment Analysis:

A. Leveraging Advanced Tools:?

To effectively?analyse?vast amounts of online data, banks can employ?machine learning?and sentiment analysis tools. These tools enable banks to filter and categorize information, identify patterns and trends, and extract meaningful insights. By leveraging sentiment analysis, banks can assess the overall market sentiment towards borrowers and gauge the impact of external factors on their financial health.

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B. Enhancing Risk Models:?

Integrating social media listening insights into risk models can strengthen banks' loan default risk assessments. By combining traditional financial indicators with sentiment analysis and social media data, banks can improve the accuracy and predictive power of their risk models. This holistic approach allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of borrower creditworthiness and provides a deeper understanding of the potential risks associated with loan defaults.

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V. Addressing Challenges and Ethical Considerations:

A. Privacy and Data Protection:

As banks engage in social media listening, it is crucial to prioritize data privacy and protection. Banks must ensure compliance with relevant data protection regulations and implement robust security measures to safeguard the information collected. Respecting user privacy, obtaining consent, and anonymizing data?if?necessary are essential steps to maintain ethical practices. This is of particular importance when used for due diligence and for the monitoring of individuals and their transactions, as is required of banks by?Know-Your-Customer?rules and regulations imposed upon them by the authorities.

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B. Noise and Information Overload:

The sheer volume of online information can pose challenges in effectively filtering and interpreting relevant data. Banks can employ sophisticated filtering techniques and analytical tools to address information overload. Machine learning algorithms and natural language processing can help identify key?topics or?themes, prioritize relevant content, and provide actionable insights to manage loan default risks efficiently.

VI. Conclusion:

By harnessing the power of social media listening, banks can conduct continuous commercial due diligence and effectively manage loan default risks. Monitoring online posts about borrower companies enables banks to gather real-time information,?detect early warning signals, and?anticipate financial difficulties. However, banks must navigate ethical considerations, prioritize data privacy, and address information overload challenges. When implemented strategically, social media listening empowers banks to proactively manage loan default risks, enhance risk management practices, and ensure more informed lending decisions.

“Banks that fail to improve their?EWS?will also face significant regulatory pressures. The European Central Bank (ECB) has highlighted the huge variation in the quality of early warning systems and how credit assessment at a micro as well as macro level is core to risk management and processing.”?

Galytix paper in association with PWC.

Originally published on the?DMR Blog