How to Avoid the Planning?Fallacy

Have you ever underestimated how long it would take you to finish a project, assignment, or task? If so, you are not alone. Many people fall prey to the planning fallacy, which is the tendency to be overly optimistic about one’s own completion times. The planning fallacy can have negative consequences for our productivity, performance, and well-being. Fortunately, psychology research has identified some of the causes and remedies of this common bias. In this blog post, we will review some of the key findings and implications from a classic study by Buehler, Griffin, and Ross (1994), who explored the planning fallacy in various contexts and tasks.

What is the planning fallacy and why does it happen?

The planning fallacy is the phenomenon of making predictions that are too optimistic, even while knowing that the vast majority of similar projects have run late. For example, students may expect to finish their essays well before the deadline, even though they have often missed their previous deadlines. The planning fallacy is not limited to academic tasks, however. It can also affect personal, professional, and public projects, such as home renovations, software development, and mega-constructions.

According to Buehler et al. (1994), the planning fallacy occurs because people tend to focus on the specific features of the current task, rather than on the general distribution of past outcomes. In other words, people adopt an internal perspective, imagining how they will complete the task, rather than an external perspective, comparing the task with similar ones. This leads to a neglect of relevant past experiences, such as previous delays, problems, and failures. Moreover, people may actively discount the past by attributing their prediction errors to external, transient, and specific factors, such as unexpected interruptions, bad luck, or unusual circumstances. This way, they can maintain their optimistic outlook for the present and future.

How can we overcome the planning fallacy?

Buehler et al. (1994) suggested several strategies to reduce the planning fallacy and improve the accuracy of our predictions. Here are some of them:

• Use distributional information: Instead of relying on our intuition or wishful thinking, we should use objective data from similar projects to inform our predictions. For example, we can look at the average completion time, the range of outcomes, and the frequency of delays for comparable tasks. This can help us adjust our expectations and account for potential uncertainties and risks.
• Connect the past to the present: Even if we have access to distributional information, we may not use it unless we see its relevance to our current situation. Therefore, we should try to draw causal connections between the past and the present and identify the factors that influence the completion time of a task. For example, we can ask ourselves: How is this task similar to or different from previous ones? What are the common causes of delay or difficulty? How can I avoid or cope with them?
• Take an outsider’s view: Sometimes, we may be too involved or attached to our own projects, and thus overlook the potential pitfalls and challenges. In such cases, it may help to take an outsider’s view, and imagine how someone else would predict or perform the task. For example, we can ask ourselves: How would a friend, colleague, or expert estimate the completion time of this task? What would they consider or do differently? How accurate have they been in the past?
• Set realistic and flexible deadlines: Deadlines can be a powerful motivator, but they can also be a source of stress and disappointment if they are unrealistic or inflexible. Therefore, we should set deadlines that are based on evidence, not on hope, and that allow for some contingency and revision. For example, we can add a buffer or a margin of error to our predictions and update them as we receive new information or feedback.

Conclusion

The planning fallacy is a common and costly bias that affects our predictions and performance. By understanding its causes and remedies, we can improve our planning and decision making, and achieve our goals more effectively and efficiently. The next time you have a project or task to complete, try to apply some of the strategies suggested by Buehler et al. (1994), and see if you can avoid the planning fallacy.

Reference: https://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/biases/67_J_Personality_and_Social_Psychology_366,_1994.pdf

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