HOW TO AVOID THE EXTINCTION OF HUMANITY FROM THREATS CAUSED BY PLANET EARTH AND HUMAN BEINGS
Fernando A.G. Alcoforado
PhD em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional
Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to present how to prevent the extinction of humanity from threats caused by planet Earth and human beings in the present and in the future. The threats caused by planet Earth and human beings are the following: 1) Cooling of the Earth's core; 2) Eruption of volcanoes; 3) Global climate change caused by humans; 4) Pandemics caused by humans; and, 5) Wars caused by humans.
1. The cooling of the Earth's core
One of the threats to humanity's survival concerns the cooling of the planet Earth's core, which has remained hot for more than 4.5 billion years, but which is slowly and inevitably cooling. The cooling of the Earth's core will cause numerous consequences, including the loss of the Earth's magnetic field that protects us from solar and cosmic radiation and a major imbalance in the planet's food chain [1]. The Earth is made up of an inner core, an outer core, the mantle and the crust (Figure 1). The Earth's core lies almost 3,000 km deep in the Earth's crust (the outermost layer of the planet). Planet Earth's core temperatures can fluctuate between 4,400°C and 6,000°C, temperatures similar to those of the Sun.
Figure 1- Internal structure of planet Earth
The Earth's inner core is a solid sphere, composed mostly of iron. The outer core is formed by a malleable liquid, composed of iron and nickel. It is in the outer core that the Earth's magnetic field is formed. The colossal amount of thermal energy that emanates from the interior of planet Earth sets in motion phenomena such as the movement of tectonic plates and volcanic activity. As the Earth's core cools, tectonic plates, which are kept in motion by Earth's mantle flow, slow down faster than expected. Without core activity, volcanoes would not erupt. But without the heat of the Earth's interior, fish and plants that live on the seafloor would be threatened, which would cause a major imbalance in the planet's food chain. Another big problem would be the loss of the Earth's magnetic field. Without it, planet Earth would be vulnerable to solar and cosmic radiation and humanity would be threatened in its survival.
To save humanity from the threat of cooling of the Earth's core, it is very important that there is a constant monitoring of the temperature of the Earth's core to adopt, when necessary, strategies of escape of human beings to places that can be habitable in the solar system (Mars, Saturn's moon Titan, and Jupiter's moon Callisto) before the loss of Earth's magnetic field and imbalance in the planet's food chain resulting from the cooling of the Earth's core. In addition, it is necessary to set up a global structure, a World Organization for the Defense against Natural Disasters of global scope, similar to the WHO (World Health Organization) that has the capacity to technically coordinate actions around the world to face the cooling of the Earth's core.
2. Eruption of volcanoes
Volcanoes are vents in mountains and on the Earth's surface that spew gases, fire and lava. The planet Earth currently has many active volcanoes that are fractures or openings on the Earth's surface through which materials that originate in the interior of the planet, such as lava, gases and other materials called "pyroclasts", are expelled. Volcanoes arise when the so-called tectonic plates that are part of the Earth's crust collide, moving the material present on them and leaving openings to deeper layers of the planet. Volcanoes usually occur in places that have intense movement of tectonic plates. Through these openings, magma can come out in the form of lava present between the crust and the mantle, the middle layer of the Earth. The structure of the volcano consists of a magma chamber, a volcanic crater, a cone, a chimney and, in some cases, there are lateral or peripheral outlets (secondary chimneys) [2]. However, dormant volcanoes can become active again like the Japanese volcano Shinmoe, which erupted after 52 years dormant. Other inactive volcanoes can still frighten and even threaten life on Earth like the "supervolcano" Yellowstone, in Wyoming (United States) which can be catastrophic, as they have been several times in the past. In the case of Yellowstone Park, which includes much of the caldera area of the volcano of the same name, there is currently no active volcanic edifice. What exists is magmatic activity and subterranean magma chambers, miles deep beneath the park, which could form new surface volcanic edifices in the future. The park is also known for its geysers [3]. The Yellowstone supervolcano is thousands of times more powerful than a normal volcano. If it erupts, the ash cloud will cover regions of several US states such as Wyoming, Montana, Idaho and Colorado, and may even reach cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle [4].
In the United States, about 130 volcanoes are active. Kilauea, in Hawaii, is the best known - and one of the most active in the world, since 1983. In addition to it, Mount Saint Helena, in Washington State, was known for a major eruption in 1980, which resulted in 57 deaths. In Indonesia there are about 120 active volcanoes. In Java (Indonesia) alone, 140 million people live near 30 volcanoes and more than 500 million people live near volcanoes (8% of the world population). Chile is one of the countries with many active volcanoes in the world. There are about 95 active volcanoes. The Chilean volcano Calbuco, located 1,000 kilometers south of Santiago, the capital of Chile, has returned to activity. Located at 2,015 meters above sea level, it has not erupted since 1972. It is considered dangerous due to its geological constitution and its proximity to urban areas. Japan has about 66 active volcanoes, including Mount Fuji, which may soon erupt, according to geological studies. Mount Fuji in Japan has been dormant for over 300 years. The volcano could threaten the lives of around eight million people in the Tokyo area. In Italy, Sicily, Etna is the most active volcano in Europe whose last eruption took place in November 2013. More than 600,000 people live on the slopes and surroundings of the Vesuvius volcano that buried Pompeii and Herculaneum in the year 79. Since then, it has erupted on about 30 occasions. In the 1906 eruption, about 100 people died, and in the last one in 1944 it destroyed 88 American bombers during World War II. Iceland is home to the Eyjafjallaj?kull volcano, which closed European airspace in 2010 and affected thousands of flights. In Russia, most volcanoes are concentrated on the Kamchatka peninsula in Siberia, in the easternmost region of the country [4].
The map below shows the Earth's seismic zones, which are the regions of the planet that have the strongest earthquakes and are also very prone to volcanism.
Figure 2- Earth's seismic zones
Source: https://mundoeducacao.uol.com.br/geografia/zonas-sismicas-terra.htm
Volcanoes can lead to the extinction of species and life on the planet depending on the scale of their eruption. According to the scientific publication Nature Geoscience, Canadian researchers at the University of Calgary have found evidence to explain how major eruptions of volcanoes, which occurred 250 million years ago, ended a life cycle on Earth [10]. Volcanoes would have produced enough coal to form ash clouds in the atmosphere, which generated greenhouse gases and decimated 95% of marine life, in addition to 70% of terrestrial living beings [3]. A study published by the renowned journal "Science" brings evidence that the intense activity of volcanoes about 200 million years ago probably led to the extinction of about half of the Earth's animal species in the period, known as the end of the Triassic that is a geological period stretching from about 252 to 201 million years ago [10]. The research was carried out by scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Columbia University, Rutgers University and Stony Brook University, all in the United States. The intense volcanic activity released huge amounts of gases into the planet's atmosphere in the period, which abruptly altered the climatic conditions. The new conditions have modified the species' habitat both in the oceans and on land, the researchers say. Evidence suggests that climate change occurred so suddenly that animals were unable to evolve and adapt. For scientists, the extinction that occurred at the end of the Triassic probably paved the way for the emergence of dinosaurs, which dominated the planet for the next 135 million years, until they reached extinction, approximately 65 million years ago [5].
Scientists have long used data from satellites, seismic-sensing equipment and other sources to detect upcoming volcano eruptions. It is possible to predict volcanic eruptions with the constant monitoring of the volcanoes to prevent disasters of catastrophic proportions with the adoption of plans for the evacuation of populations in the areas covered by the volcanoes. All these measures must be adopted, above all, in countries where there is more occurrence of volcanoes in the world. In each of these countries, it is necessary to set up structures to monitor the eruption of volcanoes and to prepare plans for the evacuation of populations in places that could be affected by these catastrophic events. In addition, it is necessary to set up a global structure, a World Organization for the Defense against Natural Disasters of global scope, similar to the WHO (World Health Organization) that has the capacity to technically coordinate the actions of countries in dealing with the eruption of volcanoes whose consequences have local, regional and global scope, especially of volcanoes that can lead to the extinction of life on the planet, such as the great eruptions of volcanoes that occurred 250 million years ago that ended a cycle of life on Earth. This world organization should be linked to a democratic world government to be created that is capable of coordinating all the actions of all national governments in adopting the necessary measures for the evacuation of human beings to safe places and even, if necessary, out of the planet Earth in places with a chance of being habitable in the solar system (Mars, the moon of Saturn, Titan, and of Jupiter, Callisto) in the case that the eruption of volcanoes can lead to the threat of extinction of the human beings as already happened in the past [10].
3. Global climate change caused by humans
The rapid rise in global temperatures that has been recorded over the last 150 years thanks to global warming could contribute to global climate change that will be catastrophic if the Earth's average temperature rises above 2°C above pre-industrial levels [7]. Global warming will have a huge impact on the health of the world population because it will cause an increase in heart attacks and respiratory diseases, according to a study carried out by several researchers who believe that the increase in the frequency of heat waves will lead to a doubling or even tripling by 2050 of heart attacks and respiratory diseases. Global warming would cause humanity to face droughts in some areas of the planet and heavy rains in others, compromising food production, the submersion of islands and coastal cities due to the rise in sea levels resulting from the melting of the poles, in Greenland and mountain ranges and the multiplicity of typhoons and hurricanes with devastating floods, among other problems [8]. The Paris Agreement seeks to contain the rise in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to make efforts to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.
To avoid catastrophic global climate change, we need to decarbonize the economy by 2050 or cut at least 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions by the mid-21st century so that there is no increase in global average temperature above 2°C or 1.5 °C, end wars which are also largely responsible for the planet's environmental aggravation due to the devastating effects they have on the environment and promote profound transformation of the current society that is responsible for global warming. The unsustainability of the current model of capitalist development is evident, since it has been extremely destructive to the conditions of life on the planet. In view of this, it is imperative to replace the current dominant economic model around the world with another that takes into account man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the sustainable development model that must ensure that the needs of current generations occur without compromising the needs of future generations, putting an end to the constant environmental degradation that threatens the future of humanity [8].
4. Pandemics caused by humans
The emergence of new pandemics tends to happen as deforestation advances across the planet. There is the prospect that an eventual next pandemic could be as contagious and much more lethal than that of Covid-19, which has already claimed the lives of more than 15 million people on the planet. The emergence of a new disease is called by scientists "disease X" which is a concept of the World Health Organization (WHO) for something unexpected or unknown that may still appear. We are now in a world where new pathogens will emerge. And that is what constitutes a gigantic threat to humanity. A new pathogen will follow the same pattern of transmission as others already found, passing from a wild animal to humans. And if the destruction of nature does not come to an end, it is likely that even more deadly and destructive diseases will strike humanity in the future, faster and more frequently. The alert comes from the world's leading biodiversity experts [6].
The destruction of biodiversity promoted by humanity can create the conditions for the emergence of new viruses with unprecedented transmission power and lethality. Human beings have always lived with pathogens from nature, some beneficial, others deadly. A few were deadly like the Bubonic Plague and the Spanish Flu. This situation is repeated with the new coronavirus pandemic. A 2008 survey identified 335 new diseases that emerged between 1960 and 2004 of which 60% came from animals. Man invades tropical forests and other wild environments, which house several species of plants and animals and within these creatures there are numerous unknown viruses. By cutting down trees, killing animals or caging them and sending them to markets, humans destroy ecosystems and spread viruses from their natural hosts. When this happens, viruses need a new host, which is often man himself. David Quammen's book "Contagion: Animal Infections and the Next Pandemic", written in 2012, which predicted the Covid-19 pandemic, reports that pandemics result from infections of animal origin [9].
The facts of reality demonstrate that human health depends on the health of the planet [10]. It is quite clear that humanity will have to make profound changes in its relationship with nature to prevent new pandemics from threatening its very existence. It is necessary to mobilize civil society across the planet to build a new world order in which there is a radical change in the concept of development as practiced for centuries. Human beings need to live in harmony with nature without which their survival will be threatened. It is necessary to immediately stop degrading and deforesting forests and strengthen the health surveillance systems of all countries and the World Health Organization (WHO), reduce social inequities between and within nations, remove subsidies that favor deforestation and offer more support to indigenous peoples to contain deforestation.
There is an urgent need to internationally ban the trade in species at high risk of transmitting viruses and eradicate the consumption of wild meat in the world, create a library of virus genetics, which helps in the mapping of places where new high-risk pathogens may emerge, make investments from $22 billion to $31 billion a year for a decade, to monitor and police the wildlife trade and prevent tropical deforestation, and on health surveillance and biosecurity in livestock farming, which are potential intermediaries for viruses that reach humans, especially in areas close to forests to help prevent future pandemics, as well as keep the world population well informed about the risks of new pandemics with reliable data, conceived by experience and science, which would certainly be of great value in generating guidance essential to their social behavior, aiming at their collaboration in the effort to prevent new pandemics [10].
5. Wars caused by humans
The world is faced with the threat of the proliferation of localized wars and, also, of the outbreak of a new world war. The 20th century was the scene (until now) of three great wars (World War I from 1914 to 1918, World War II from 1939 to 1945 and the Cold War from 1945 to 1989). In the First World War (1914-1918), about 9 million people died. Just twenty years later, World War II broke out (1939-1945), which killed between 40 and 52 million people. From the end of the Second World War to 1992, there were 149 wars, in which more than 23 million people died. The estimate covering all "megadeaths" from 1914 to the present came to a total of 187 million dead. The violence of conflicts in our time has no parallel in history. Since the 20th century, wars have been “total wars” against combatants and civilians without discrimination [5].
Recently, the war broke out in Ukraine between Russia and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) that can result in the 3rd World War which and in the extinction of humanity if the belligerents decide to use nuclear weapons?which could result in the extinction of humanity if the belligerents decide to use nuclear weapons. In addition to Ukraine, there are several countries that can become outbreaks of wars in the world in the 21st century, among them the United States, Russia, China, Syria, Palestine, Israel, Iran, North Korea, India and Pakistan. In the contemporary era, international geopolitical chess points to the existence of 3 major protagonists: the United States, China and Russia. At present, in addition to the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France, India, North Korea, Pakistan and Israel are holders of nuclear weapons. Expert reports accuse Israel of having a large nuclear arsenal, thus being the only one with such weapons in the Middle East. In turn, Iran and Syria are accused of having secret nuclear weapons programs [5].
The facts of history demonstrate that world peace can only be achieved with the constitution of a democratic world government that is elected by the world parliament to be constituted with the participation of countries around the world because no great power, however powerful it may be, nor the current international organizations, such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, World Trade Organization, among others, have already demonstrated that they do not have the capacity and power to promote progress in the planet's international relations. The democratic world government would avoid the empire of one country and the anarchy of all countries. The time has come for humanity to equip itself, as urgently as possible, with the instruments needed to build world peace and control its destiny. It is necessary to understand that there will be no world peace nor the world market will function properly without the Rule of International Law that can only be applied and respected with the presence of a world government that is accepted by all countries. A world government will only be sustainable if it is truly democratic. The new world order must be built not only to organize the relationships between men on the face of the Earth, but also their relationships with nature. It is therefore necessary to draw up a planetary social contract that makes it possible to achieve world peace, economic and social progress and the rational use of nature's resources for the benefit of all humanity. A democratic world government would not turn the governments of each nation into its vassals. National governments would maintain their autonomy, being governed according to the interests of their people, while the democratic world government would aim to defend the general interests of the planet.
6. Conclusions
To save humanity from the threat of cooling of the Earth's core, it is very important that there is a constant monitoring of the temperature of the Earth's core to adopt, when necessary, strategies of escape of human beings to places that are habitable in the solar system (Mars, Saturn's moon Titan, and Jupiter's moon Callisto), before the loss of Earth's magnetic field and of imbalance in the planet's food chain resulting from the cooling of the Earth's core. In addition, it is necessary to set up a global structure, a World Organization for the Defense against Natural Disasters of global scope, similar to the WHO (World Health Organization) that has the capacity to technically coordinate actions around the world to face the cooling of the Earth's core.
To save humanity from the threat posed by the eruption of volcanoes, it must be constantly monitored with the use of satellites, seismic sensitivity equipment and other sources to detect volcano eruptions that are about to happen in order to prevent disasters of catastrophic proportions. These measures should be adopted, above all, in countries where there is more occurrence of volcanoes in the world. In each of these countries, it is necessary to set up structures to monitor the eruption of volcanoes and to prepare plans for the evacuation of populations in places that could be affected by these catastrophic events. In addition, it is necessary to set up a global structure, a World Organization for the Defense against Natural Disasters of global scope, similar to the WHO (World Health Organization) that has the capacity to technically coordinate the actions of countries in facing the eruption of volcanoes whose consequences have local, regional and global scope, especially volcanoes that can lead to the extinction of life on planet Earth such as the great eruptions of volcanoes that occurred 250 million years ago that ended a cycle of life on Earth. This world organization should be linked to a democratic world government to be created that is capable of coordinating all the actions of all national governments in adopting the necessary measures for the evacuation of human beings to safe places and even, if necessary, out of the planet Earth in places with a chance of being habitable in the solar system (Mars, the moon of Saturn, Titan, and of Jupiter, Callisto) in the case that the eruption of volcanoes can lead to the threat of extinction of the human beings as already happened in the past.
To avoid catastrophic global climate change, we need to decarbonize the economy by 2050 or cut at least 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions by the mid-21st century so that there is no increase in global average temperature above 2°C or 1 .5 °C, put an end to wars, which are also largely responsible for the planet's environmental aggravation due to the devastating effects they have on the environment and promote profound transformation of today's society. The unsustainability of the current model of capitalist development is evident, since it has been extremely destructive to the conditions of life on the planet. In view of this, it is imperative to replace the current dominant economic model throughout the world with another that takes into account man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the sustainable development model that must ensure that the needs of current generations occur without compromising the needs of future generations, putting an end to the constant environmental degradation that threatens the future of humanity.
To avoid the occurrence of new pandemics on planet Earth, there must be the mobilization of civil society across the planet to build a new world order in which there is a radical change in the concept of development as practiced for centuries. It is necessary to immediately stop degrading and deforesting forests and strengthen health surveillance systems in all countries and of the World Health Organization (WHO), reduce social inequities between and within nations, remove subsidies that favor deforestation and offer more support to indigenous peoples to contain deforestation. It is necessary to internationally ban the trade in species at high risk of transmitting viruses and eradicate the consumption of wild meat in the world, create a library of virus genetics, which helps in the mapping of places where new high-risk pathogens may emerge, carry out investments of US$ 22 billion to US$ 31 billion per year for a decade, to monitor and police the wildlife trade and prevent tropical deforestation and in health surveillance and biosecurity in the creation of consumption animals, which are potential virus intermediaries that affect humans, especially in areas close to forests to help prevent future pandemics, as well as keep the world's population well informed about the risks of new pandemics with reliable data, conceived by experience and science.
To avoid the proliferation of wars in the world and the outbreak of the 3rd World War, a democratic world government must be constituted that is elected by the world parliament to be constituted with the participation of countries around the world. The democratic world government would avoid the empire of one country and the anarchy of all countries. A world government will only be sustainable if it is truly democratic. The new world order must be built not only to organize the relationships between men on the face of the Earth, but also their relationships with nature. It is therefore necessary to draw up a planetary social contract that makes it possible to achieve world peace, economic and social progress and the rational use of nature's resources for the benefit of all humanity.
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