How to avoid a Climate Disaster

Book by: Bill Gates

Summary Highlights: Abida Hassan?

?There are two numbers that you need to know about climate change.? The first 52 billion. The other is zero. 52 billion is how many tons of greenhouse gases the world typically adds to the atmosphere every year. Zero is what we need to aim for.

?Energy Poverty

Today roughly 860 million people don’t have electricity. It is hard to stay healthy if your local medical clinic can’t keep vaccines cold because the refrigerators don’t work. It’s hard to be productive if you don’t have lights to read by. And it’s impossible to build an economy where everyone has job opportunities if you don’t have massive amounts of reliable, affordable electricity for offices and call centers. Income and energy go hand in hand- graph by David MacKay showing relationship between income and energy -using a country’s per capita income and the amount of electricity used by its people and it shows maximum energy is consumed by people where per capita income is highest. The world needs to provide more energy so that the poorest can thrive. But we need to provide that energy without releasing any further greenhouse gas emissions.

Why Zero

Green house gasses trap heat, causing the average surface temperature of earth to go up. And once these gasses are up in the atmosphere, they stay there for a very long period something like one fifth of the carbon dioxide emitted today will be still there in 10, 000 years. Even a 50% drop in carbon emissions wouldn’t stop the rise in temperature: it would only slow down things somewhat, postponing but not preventing a climate catastrophe.

A Little is A Lot

What sounds like a small increase in the global temperature of just 1 or 2 degrees Celsius could cause a lot of trouble. In climate terms a change of just a few degrees is a big deal. During the last ice-age, the average temperature was just 6 degrees lower than it is today. During the age of dinosaurs, the temperature was perhaps 4 degrees higher than today, there were crocodiles living above the arctic circle. The global mean has gone up just one degree since pre-industrial time some places have already started experiencing temperature increases of more than 2 degrees Celsius. These regions are home to between 20% and 40% of the world's population. Why are some places heating up more than others? In the interior of some continents, the soil is drier, which means the land can’t cool off as much as it did in the past. Basically, continents aren’t sweating as much as they do.

Carbon dioxide is the most common greenhouse gas, but there are others which make a handful of impact:

·?????? Methane (main ingredient of natural gas that we use in geysers and stoves)

·?????? Nitrous oxide (laughing gas)

-many of these gases cause more warming than carbon dioxide does- in the case of methane, 120 times more warming the moment it reaches the atmosphere, but it doesn’t stay around as much as carbon does. But to keep things simple, all different green house gases into a single measure known as carbon dioxide CO2 e.

How do Greenhouse Gases cause Warming?

Greenhouse gas emissions have increased dramatically since 1850s due to due to human activity such as burning fossils fuels. Greenhouse gases absorb heat and trap it in the atmosphere. They work the same way a greenhouse works and hence the name.

When it doesn’t Rain it Pours:

The effect of climate change adds up, on top of the other. As it gets hotter, for example, mosquito will start living in new places (they like it humid) so likely chances of malaria and other insect born disease cases where they’ve never happened before. Heatstroke will be another major problem, and it’s linked to the humidity, of all things. Air can contain only a certain amount of water vapor and at some point, it hits a ceiling, becoming so saturated that it can’t absorb anymore moisture. Why does that matter? Because the human body’s ability to cool off depends on the air’s ability absorb sweat as it evaporates. If the air can’t absorb your sweat, then it can’t cool you off, no matter how much you perspire. There’s simply nowhere for your perspiration to go. Your body temperature stays high and if nothing changes, you die of heat stroke/ renal failure within hours. As the atmosphere gets hotter and more humid it will become a much bigger problem. Some regions in jeopardy include:

-??????? The Persian Gulf.

-??????? South Asia

-??????? Parts of China

-there will be times of the year when hundreds of millions of people will be at risk of dying.

How many people will be killed by COVID 19 vs Climate change?

Because we want to compare events that happen at different points in time – the pandemic in 2020 and Climate change in say 2030- and the global population will change in that time, we can’t compare the absolute deaths. Instead, we will use the death rate: that is the number of deaths per 100, 000 people. Using data from Spanish Flu and COVID 19 and averaging it out over the course of century, we can estimate the amount by which a global pandemic increases the global mortality rate. It’s about 14 deaths per 100, 000 people each year. By mid-century, increase in global temperatures are projected to raise global mortality rates by the same amount – 14 deaths per 100, 000 people. By the end of the century if emission growth stays high climate change could be responsible for 75 extra deaths per 100, 000 people. In other words, by mid-century climate change could just be as deadly as COVID -19, and by 2100 it could be five times as deadly.

Five Questions to ask in every Climate conversation.

1.???? How much of the 52 billion tons are we talking about?

Whenever you see the number of tons of greenhouse gases convert it into a percentage of 52 billion.

2.???? What’s your plan for cement?

This question is a shorthand reminder that if you’re trying to come up with a comprehensive plan for climate change you have to account for much more than electricity and cars. Emissions come from five different activities, and we need solutions in all of them.

HOW MUCH GREENHOUSE GAS IS EMITTED BY THE THINGS WE DO?

Making things (cement, steel, plastic) ??????????????????29%

Plugging in (electricity) ?????????????????????????????????????????26%

Growing things (plants and animals)?????????????????????22%

Getting around (planes, trucks, cargo, ships)?????????16%

Keeping warm and cool ?????????????????????????????????????????7%

3.???? How much power are we talking about?

Megawatt?????????????????million watts

Watt??????????????????????????joule/second (small bulb might use 40 of them, hair dryer 155)

Kilowatt????????????????????1000 watts

Megawatt ????????????????million watts

Gigawatt ??????????????????billion watts

HOW MUCH POWER DOES IT TAKE?

The world ??????????????????????????????????????? ???5000 gigawatts

The United States ???????????????????????????????1000 gigawatts

Midsized City ????????????????????????????????????? 1 gigawatt

Small Town ?????????????????????????????????????????1 Megawatt

Average house in America ?????????????????1 Kilowatt

*Whenever you hear kilowatt think house, Gigawatt think city. A hundred or more gigawatts

think “big country”.

4.???? How much space do you need?

HOW MUCH POWER CAN WE GENERATE PER SQUARE METER?

*If someone tells you that some source (wind, solar, nuclear, whatever) can supply all the energy the world needs find out how much space will be required to produce that much energy?

5.???? How much is this going to cost??

Keep the green premiums in mind and ask whether they are low enough for middle income countries to pay. * The Green Premium is?the additional cost of choosing a clean technology over one that emits more greenhouse gases.

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A Plan for Getting to Zero

·?????? Transitioning to renewable energy (e.g., solar, wind) for electricity generation.

·?????? Electrifying industries like transportation, buildings, and manufacturing.

·?????? Carbon capture and storage technologies to reduce emissions for hard-to-electrify sectors (e.g., cement, steel).

·?????? Sustainable agriculture practices to reduce deforestation and methane emissions.

·?????? Climate-resilient infrastructure development to adapt to changing weather patterns.

·?????? Research and development of new clean energy technologies.

·?????? Global cooperation to share knowledge, technologies, and best practices.

·?????? Carbon pricing to incentivize emissions reductions.

·?????? Education and behavior change to reduce energy consumption.

What Each of Us Can Do

While government and business actions are crucial, individual choices can collectively make a significant impact:

1. Educate yourself about climate change and its solutions.

2. Reduce energy consumption:

??? - Use energy-efficient appliances

??? - Insulate homes

??? - Turn off lights/electronics when not in use

3. Switch to renewable energy:

?? ?- Invest in solar panels or renewable energy credits

??? - Choose a renewable energy provider

4. Eat a climate-friendly diet:

??? - Reduce meat consumption (especially beef)

??? - Choose plant-based options

??? - Buy locally sourced food

5. Conserve water:

??? - Take shorter showers

??? - Fix leaks

??? - Install low-flow fixtures

6. Reduce waste:

??? - Recycle

??? - Compost

??? - Avoid single-use plastics

7. Use climate-friendly transportation:

??? - Drive electric or hybrid vehicles

??? - Use public transport, walk, or bike

8. Support climate-friendly policies and companies:

??? - Vote for climate-conscious leaders

??? - Invest in companies prioritizing sustainability

9. Offset emissions from flights, energy consumption, etc.

10. Advocate for climate action in your community and social networks

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