How to apply systems thinking to tackle the ‘Wickedest wicked problem of them all’ – reopening a business during the COVID-19 pandemic.

May 14th, 2020

A Q-and-A with Michigan Ross Professor Dr. Scott Page on applying complex systems and network theory to the challenge of reopening organizations during the pandemic.

Do you need to reopen, but want to do it right?

Businesses, governments and not-for-profit organizations who were impacted by the COVID-19 lockdowns are currently trying to figure out when to reopen, and just as importantly, how to reopen. There are multiple competing goals at play when you try to answer this question. For example, you want to deliver the goods and service as well or better than before; keep employees, families and customers safe by reducing the spread of the virus as much as possible; and help employees experience meaning in their work. This balancing act is one of the most complex problems, loaded with interdependencies, that organizations may ever face. 

Fortunately for us, Michigan Ross Professor of Management and Organizations Dr. Scott Page, a leading expert on applying complexity theory to real life situations, just published a practical toolkit to help leaders meet this challenge. Scott sat down with Gene Mage, Managing Director Custom Programs, for a socially-distanced interview about his new toolkit for leaders. 

GM: Who is Scott Page? What got you interested in complex systems? How have you worked with leaders over the years to use complex systems approaches to solve particularly difficult "wicked" problems? 

SP: My PhD was in mathematical economics and game theory. Like most economists, I was trained to think of the economy as in equilibrium or as heading toward an equilibrium following a shock or unanticipated policy intervention. Complex systems theory makes no such assumption. It conceives the economy as consisting of diverse, networked, purposeful actors. Their aggregate behavior can reach an equilibrium, and it can also produce randomness, simple patterns, or complex dynamics.

Complex systems, like markets and ecosystems, often exhibit emergent properties and functions. I'm particularly interested in collective intelligence - how the system can be more intelligent than the entities that comprise it. Ant colonies, bee hives, and our brains exhibit emergent collective intelligence - the brain being far more impressive than neurons and axons. That collective intelligence depends on diversity  and interactions.  Over the past two decades, I've worked with a lot of leaders to think about diversity as a key driver of their organization's collective intelligence.

GM: Why did you decide to create the toolkit? What were you seeing that led you to believe conventional (non-systems) approaches were inadequate?

SP: I thought the systems view was missing from the dialogue. OSHA, the CDC, and other agencies have developed manuals or guide for how to make workplaces safe. Those manuals highlight wiping down, disinfecting, maintaining distance and so on. Adding a set of best practices to prevent the spread of the virus to your existing organizational routines and structures takes attention away from the key competitive decision: how to re--organize in face of these new constraints.

The best organizations combine a shared mission with opportunities for meaningful work. The pandemic creates a new "physics of the workplace" if you will. Organizations need to step back and think "how do we restructure so that we continue to fulfill our mission, create meaningful work, and keep our employees and communities safe?" They also need to be aware that the best practices for keeping people safe will change as we learn more about the virus and as testing increases.

GM: What are some of the most vexing challenges leaders will face when planning to reopen?

SP: Making employees and customers feel safe. Putting protocols in place to sense and adapt as the situation evolves. Given the lag between exposure and symptoms and the number of asymptomatic cases, learning will be difficult. And, last, deciding which policy successes can transfer into your situation.

Here's an analogy. Sweden, for example, has not issued a lockdown. Yet, on some dimensions Swedes without a lock-down behave similarly to Americans under quarantine. Success in any given context may depend as much on culture (organizational or national) as it does on the rules mandated by policy. 

GM: How will complex systems and network theory help a typical leader, who isn't an expert on complex systems theory, create a better reopening plan?

SP: Here is just one of many examples. The virus spreads through connections of people or from people to objects to people. Think of each of those as creating a transmission network. The first network connects two people who might catch the virus from one another – two people who sit near each other in an office, or ride in the same truck. The second network connects two people who touch the same object -- maybe they use the same copier, enter through the same doors, etc. Here are two non-trivial insights: first, networks differ in how likely the disease will spread. A leader should look at those networks to assess risk. Second, each network could be good at preventing spread on its own, but when you combine the networks, the risk could be really high. So you have to look at both networks combined. Following OSHA or CDC you could reduce person to person transmission and person to object to person transmission, yet have a combined system on which the virus can spread easily.

GM: What are some of the system inter-dependencies leaders should particularly pay attention to?

SP: Many of the highest value-add people in an organization bridge different units enabling information and knowledge to flow across the organization. To use Ron Burt's terminology, they fill structural holes. By analogy, those same people can enable the virus to flow across the organization. Leaders want to figure out how to keep the information flowing while not allowing the virus to do so. This will require giving people who make connections ways to be even more connected in virtual space. 

GM: How can leaders strike a balance between competing factors such as the need for connectivity, and the requirement to limit physical interactions to stop the spread of the virus?

SP: Linear thinking would imply a tradeoff: more connectivity implies better performance but more risk of spreading. Less connectivity implies lower performance but a safer workplace. Systems thinking distinguishes between physical and virtual connections. And then sees the risk, not as a function of the number of connections but as a function of the network of connections. An organization can limit physical interactions to those that add the most value and meaning and then limit other connections. 

GM: What were the most surprising "aha" ideas that came up while creating the toolkit...which of the strategies are particularly "non-intuitive"? 

SP: When you overlay organizational function, meaningful work experience, and virus transmission for any organizational design, you realize that these three functions do not follow the same logic. In those differences lie incredible opportunity - and not just now but in the future. When we have moved beyond this pandemic, wise organizations won't go back to where they were before. They will have learned. 

A second aha moment was that small changes in our understanding of how the virus transmits – how long it stays on objects, outdoor versus indoor transmission, etc., might lead to large changes in how you organize. 

GM: What are some ways leaders could leverage diversity, and diverse thinking models, when tackling complex decisions during a time of physical distancing?

SP: This is not a time to think top down. Leaders have to reach out to employees for ideas and insights. This is a time in which fast learning is necessary – and so leaders will have to encourage everyone to be thinking of ideas and improvements. 

Diverse models will be key as well. Firms need to use models of business efficiency, models of consumer behavior, models of economic trends, models of virus transmission within their organizations. By adding so many new dimensions to business strategy, the virus implies even greater likelihood of "seat of the pants" thinking leading to an error. You want to look at major decision through a variety of lenses.

GM: After someone reads through the toolkit, what is the first step you recommend they take to start putting these ideas into action?

SP: Think in terms of networks of transmission not just numbers of transmissions. Look through the diagrams in the toolkit, and gather key people (virtually) to talk through the networks.

GM: If someone wants to know more or go deeper on this topic, any recommendations for learning resources you can share

SP: The Michigan Ross Executive Education website adds new material daily. For more on using models - I have an online MOOC called Model Thinking and a book called The Model Thinker. I also recommend John Seely Brown and Ann Pendleton Jullian's work on navigating a white water world, called Design Unbound.

To view the toolkit mentioned in this article, visit: https://sites.google.com/view/reopening-toolkit/home

For more information about Michigan Ross Executive Education, visit https://michiganross.umich.edu/programs/executive-education, [email protected], +1 734-763-1000