How will AI change the future of work?

Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation are quickly transforming the world of work and society at large. These technologies have the potential to create new value for businesses, boost economic growth, improve healthcare outcomes, extend human lifespan, and address some of the most pressing global challenges. However, they also pose significant risks and challenges for workers, organisations, and policy makers. How can we harness the benefits of AI and automation while minimising the costs and ensuring a fair and inclusive future for all?

The impact of AI and automation on the labour market

AI and automation are already affecting the demand and supply of labour across sectors and occupations. Whilst in the next five years we are likely to see a net increase in jobs resulting from Ai advancements, the forecast beyond this is less clear. There may well be a longer term trend towards digital workers. According to the OECD, AI and automation could displace up to 14% of workers by 2030, while another 32% could see significant changes in their tasks and skills requirements. The skills gap is by far the biggest issue – whilst new roles may be created, few will have the training to take them. The net impact of AI and automation on employment and wages will depend on various factors, such as the pace and scope of technological innovation, the adaptability and mobility of workers, the availability and quality of education and training, the regulation and taxation of labour and capital, and the social protection and redistribution policies.

The polarisation of skills and incomes

AI and automation are expected to increase the demand for workers who either have highly technical skills or very good human skills, such as leadership and empathy. At the same time, they could reduce the demand for less skilled workers who perform routine or manual tasks that are easy to automate or outsource. This could widen the gap between high- and low-skilled workers in terms of skills, wages, and job opportunities. Moreover, AI and automation could also increase the returns to capital relative to labour, as machines become more productive and cheaper than human workers. Policy makers may be forced to change their strategies to cope with the shift in social care requirements. It is also true that employees may have multiple careers in their working life, the key aspect being that they will need to remain open to learning new skills as technology advances and changes the demand for different skillsets.

The impact of AI and automation on healthcare and longevity

Ai is set to revolutionise healthcare. It has the potential to improve health outcomes, reduce costs, and extend human lifespan. Some of the key trends that are likely to shape healthcare and longevity in the next decade are:

• AI enables the use of highly personalised, targeted care. AI will be able to diagnose diseases and recommend treatments based on the individual’s patient history, and also have real time access to vast medical datasets. We are already seeing AI outperform human diagnoses with CT scans and x-rays. Individual specialists tend to have a blinkered view of other medical domains, which can hinder complex diagnoses. AI isn’t limited in this way, it has universal knowledge. AI could transform the effectiveness and speed of our medical services, taking out the guesswork from an equation.
• The innovation of healthcare: AI and automation also accelerate the innovation of healthcare products and processes, such as drug discovery, clinical trials, medical devices, biotechnology, genomics, etc. These technologies can help discover new cures, treatments, or therapies for various diseases or conditions, such as cancer, diabetes, and Alzheimer’s.
• The extension of longevity: AI and automation also contribute to the extension of human lifespan, by improving health outcomes, preventing diseases, and delaying aging. These technologies can help identify and modify the factors that affect longevity, such as genetics, environment, and lifestyle. They can also help enhance the quality of life and well-being of older people, by providing them with more independence, mobility, social interaction, and cognitive stimulation. However, the increase in human lifespan also poses some socio-economic challenges, such as the sustainability of social security systems. As people live longer, they may also retire later or work part-time, which could affect their income and pension entitlements. Moreover, the ageing population could increase the demand for public services, such as healthcare, long-term care, education, and social protection, which could strain the fiscal capacity and social solidarity of governments and societies.

The possibility of a singularity

A singularity is a hypothetical scenario in which AI surpasses human intelligence in all domains of activity, creating a superintelligence that is able to self-improve at an exponential rate. Some proponents of this scenario argue that this could happen by 2033 or sooner, while others are more skeptical or cautious. The implications of a singularity are highly uncertain and speculative, but some possible outcomes are:

• A positive singularity: In the same way that your desktop PC or Siri doesn’t want to kill you, (I’m less sure about printers), superintelligence could be benevolent and aligned with human values and goals, and could help humanity solve its most pressing problems, such as energy, poverty, disease, war, climate change. A superintelligence could also enhance human capabilities and well-being, by providing and equitable distribution of resources, education, entertainment, health, and happiness.
• A negative singularity: A superintelligence could potentially create its own agenda, or even believe that the human race is a nuisance to the wider universe and therefore become malevolent or indifferent to human values and goals, and could harm or destroy humanity intentionally. Sam Altman of Open AI is on record as estimating the chances of this as being 20% or higher.

The possibility of a singularity is highly uncertain and controversial, and depends on various factors, such as the feasibility and speed of AI development, the alignment and control of AI goals and values, the ethical and social implications of AI capabilities and actions, the cooperation and competition among AI agents and human actors, etc. Therefore, there is a need to anticipate and prepare for the potential scenarios and outcomes of a singularity, by engaging in multidisciplinary research, dialogue, governance, and regulation of AI. The good news is that this is happening, but it needs swift global collaboration and effective laws if it is to stay ahead of the curve. Humanity isn’t renowned for its ability to collaborate across boundaries. Greed could become our downfall.

Conclusion

AI and automation are reshaping the future of work and society in profound ways. These technologies offer tremendous opportunities for economic growth, social progress, and human development. However, they also pose significant challenges for workers, organisations, and policy makers. How can we ensure that AI and automation benefit everyone and not just a few? How can we prepare for the changes that these technologies will bring to our jobs, skills, health, security, and well-being? How can we balance the trade-offs between efficiency and equity, innovation and regulation, freedom and security? How can we cope with the possibility of a singularity that could surpass human intelligence? It is clear that globally subscribed regulation is swiftly needed, but also that our socio economic foundations are about to be shaken to the core, and a major rethink of our most basic principles we hold dear, will be necessary to adjust to live with the new normal. What is clear is that we have no time for navel gazing, we have to ensure that Ai develops for the good of all. We have to act. Now.