How 2023 Compares to 2008 for the Home Improvement Industry

If you want a graphic view of the apocalypse for the Home Improvement industry, 2008 is it. It doesn’t get much worse than 2008.

2008: What a disaster looks like on paper

This data is from the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity study, a handy and long-running stats project from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard.

If you’re not a stats aficionado, everything in this chart is bad. It’s a steep drop. It’s sustained, it just runs and runs for years. And it follows a period of wishy-washy growth, where growth is quickly wiped out by micro-recessions.

For those of you in the audience who were at businesses who survived the onslaught, I salute you - congratulations! I bet you can survive just about anything.

Compare this with today, and I think you’ll emerge with a much rosier picture.

2022 & 2023: Slowing Growth, But Still Growth!

As the market cools from the bonanza of the pandemic, it’s a good time to take stock of our industry. We’re still growing, but at an admittedly much slower rate than the heyday of the last 3 years.?

The furthest projection, Q2 of 2023, could either be modest growth or modest decline, it’s up in the air. A far cry from the 40% contraction of 2009.

The reason I analyze these numbers, aside from being a business owner in this industry that I love, is that I worry some folks are missing the forest for the trees. We’re at the tail end of a dynamite run, a fantastic growth sprint in the face of overwhelming challenges during the pandemic. While we won’t grow at the breakneck pace of the last several years, I think we will grow.?

So, don’t fall into a recessionary state of mind! If you opt to grow, you can - no less than Harvard says that the demand is there, if you have the will and the plan to grab it!