How 2019 may affect 2029

2019 was a big year for me personally, moving from one continent to the other, and starting a new role. 2019 also marked the completion of Thales’s acquisition of Gemalto, which is a huge news in its own right. With the digital security prowess of Gemalto, and the leadership position of Thales in multiple critical decision-making domains, a new (or renewed) leader in cyber and digital security is born. A bit more about that in my other post, Living on the Edge, so let me park this seemingly publicity news right here.

AI, digital security, edge and IoT still fared really high on my radar in 2019 as broader themes under which a lot of the new hyped technologies or sub-themes are emerging – often, as an overlap between those larger themes. There’s a lot of innovation around use of AI/machine learning for better cybersecurity, for example. But there’s also the use of AI to implement deepfakes, which is enough to give the cybersecurity community some nightmares. 5G continues to piggyback on edge and IoT applications to justify its existence. This goes back to my comment two years ago about the importance of the right combination of different technology areas to build unique experiences. Experiences, not products, are the name of the game.

Let’s begin with some news that seemed newsworthy, but then, not necessarily something too significant. In going public, WeWork struggled to go through an IPO, while having an identity crisis of whether it is an office rental company or a technology platform. Speaking of IPO’s, how about the company that became the most highly valued company with a market cap of $2 trillion; and a net income equal to combined profits of Apple, Google and Exxon Mobil! 2019 also saw some mega-mergers and acquisitions – Sprint-T Mobile, AT&T-Time Warner, Disney and 20th Century Fox. Using Disney to segue way into the digital universe, 2019 saw the launch of Disney+. As big as this news is, it was only a matter of time! And while Disney+ is likely to be a huge success, same cannot be said about the premier of another digital service, Libra – Mark Zuckerberg’s venture into cryptocurrency, as it met a rocky start. Then there has been a growing opinion in 2019 that Facebook should be broken up. If that ever were to happen, that would certainly be in my list of most happening things in any given year!

Still staying on the subject of big technology firms and how significant their impact is on the society, how about the on-stage performance of Elon Musk and Jack Ma, discussing the future of AI? Seemed like a lot more civil debate compared to the Musk-Zuckerberg debacle of 2018. While this debate (of AI as a savior or AI as doomsday) remains extremely important, it is interesting how a chosen few have such a big role in shaping the AI future versus a collaborative academic, business, legislative and economic think tank. This brings me to my first subtle, yet profound news of 2019 – the official exit of Jack Ma from Alibaba, and the Google founders from Alphabet. Referencing my last year’s post, governments are finding ways to clamp down on the influence of these large tech firms and vis-à-vis these individuals…which explains why France’s digital tax is now in effect. Anyone’s retirement is a very personal decision; why now? Now, at a critical juncture of the next technological wave (heralded by AI), and at a time where government and society at large is asking soul-searching questions about this inadequate distribution of influence; is it the time to pass on the baton or take responsibility? Would this not set a precedence of building and scaling platforms with no sense of the liabilities they bring? Granted that these are rhetorical questions, but I, for one, find it disturbing that they’re unanswered, especially at a critical juncture where AI is really gaining traction.

Someone who is not stepping down anytime soon, though, makes up my second news of the year – Elon Musk! While Musk himself isn’t the news, but well…he is! Tesla may have had a sinusoidal year, but it has come out on top – January 2020 has seen Tesla emerge as the most valuable American automaker with a valuation that matches the that of both GM and Ford combined. The final arrival of Model 3 in 2019 was a huge news for the EV (electric vehicle) market. And while Tesla might not be the sole solution to our global warming woes, its success (in my view) is critical and almost synonymous to the success of e-mobility and the long term benefits it brings. Elon Musk’s glory in 2019 wasn’t limited to the Model 3. The successful landing of all three boosters of the most powerful rocket is no easy task. SpaceX achieved that in 2019. By certain estimates, SpaceX’s ability to salvage these boosters cuts down the cost of launching a rocket to half or even a third! While self-landing rockets aren’t new, the success of the Falcon Heavy Rocket launch in 2019 certifies SpaceX’s ability to be commercially ready, and makes space expeditions much more viable.

Sticking to Aerospace, another significant news of 2019 was Boeing’s fiasco. The grounding of the 737 MAX aircrafts and subsequent financial losses are insignificant in front of the lives lost. But this incident is a big reflection of the sensitive use of technology in life- or mission-critical applications. Boeing’s CEO may have been sacked (after a $60 million severance package); the company may have lost billions of dollars’ worth of business (~$10 billion); and there’s no compensation for human life; but there are huge lessons to learn. Software, sensors and data are an integral part of critical decision-making chains today. And Boeing, I’m certain, is a company that realizes this fact better than many other companies. Boeing is likely to bounce back, as the aerospace industry is expected to grow significantly in the coming years; and especially since choices are limited in this duopolistic market. But this unfortunate incident is a reminder of the need for considerable due diligence and appropriate checks and balances as we dive head-first into robotics, IoT and AI.

And speaking of another $10 billion dollar news, the final news that I see as very significant is the final award of the JEDI project. I suppose I’m guilty of repetition here because I spoke about this project last year as well. But this project has a lot of significance, and Microsoft has sent out a strong message to the cloud market with this $10 billion project win. JEDI overshadows another multi-billion dollar deal that Microsoft won with AT&T in 2019. These cloud mega-deals are significant because they’re likely to shape the future of the cloud market and adjoining digital technologies. The scope of the JEDI project, for example, is not just limited to pure cloud applications, but also edge computing applications. And while it might be early to say this, these deals might be indicative of the enterprise world’s preferences (not necessarily of the vendor) and how it is looking at adopting cloud – from enterprise applications, to SaaS applications, and eventually to IaaS or PaaS. Perhaps this is why there’s a growing speculation that Google needs to buy Salesforce – in order to become relevant in the cloud space. Will 2020 be the year for GCP, or perhaps a continuation of AWS's dominance? Let’s wait and see. But if there’s one critical battle to be won in the cloud space, it’s that of signing these large enterprise and government deals, and Microsoft seems to have gotten it right in 2019!

That’s my round-up for 2019, obviously biased towards fields like IoT, edge, cloud, AI and digital security; fields that are more likely to be on my radar. Digital technology is getting more intertwined with our lives, with every passing year. Looking at the state of global affairs, here’s a wish (or wishful thinking?) that in 2020 technology would help remove more barriers, rather than create them; that technology would make us more human, rather than turning us into organic robots. Was there any particular technology or business news that caught your eye in 2019? Something that would shape the next decade? The world is changing. Have your say in 2020! Stay blessed.

(late edit: if you liked the article, you'll love this inspirational SpaceX video...courtesy Kashif Javed)

DISCLAIMER: All the cool views presented in this post are my own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of my past or present employers.