Houthi rebels and their impact on world trade -Past, Present and Future
International Relations Committee, IMT Hyderabad
International Relations Committee of IMT Hyderabad
By Sayak Dutta , International Relations Committee, IMT Hyderabad
PAST
Introduction
Houthis are a large clan or tribe originating from the Saada province of Yemen. They are the practioners of Zaydi form of Shiaism. Zaydis form almost 35 percent of Yemen’s population.
A Zaydi imam ruled Yemen for 1000 yrs. And it was overthrown in the year 1962. Since then the Zaydis were deprived of their political power and they struggled to restore their influence and authority over the country. In 1980 the Houthis began a movement to revive the Zaydi traditions, however they did not have the support of all the Zaydis.
Houthi insurgents clashed with the ruling government of Yemen. The insurgent movement have expanded beyond its Zaydi roots and have become a much larger opposition to the Yemeni government in the recent years.
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Formation and history of the group
The Houthi Movement started in Northern Yemen in the 1990s as a reaction to the Saudi Religious and financial influence over the middle east Asia. In November 2009, Houthis crossed into Saudi Arabia and Saudis launched air strikes against the rebels and engaged in the ground skirmishes.
In March 2015, Saudi-UAE coalition launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. The UN tried to broker peace talks among Houthis and the internationally supported Yemeni government.
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Ideology of the group- Comparison between Shiaism of Iran and Zaydism
Zaydis, like other Shiites, believe that only descendants of the Prophet Mohammed's cousin and son-in-law, Ali, have the right to lead the Muslim community as imams - the Prophet's divinely anointed successors. Zaydism is practiced primarily in Yemen, and Zaydis account for around 8% of the world's 70 million Shiites.
The Zaydis, however, are distinct from the "Twelver" version of Shiism followed by the vast majority of the world's Shiites, including the vast majority of Shiites in Iran. Twelver Shiites believe the twelfth imam, whom they regard as infallible, vanished in 874AD and would one day return as the Mahdi, or promised one, to usher in an era of justice. In the absence of the Mahdi, Twelver Shiites believe clerics can take his place on some matters.
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Iran and Houthis
Iranian?government?have?supported?the Houthis’ cause?and?compared?the?group?to Hezbollah. “Iran supports the?due?struggles?of Ansarullah in Yemen and considers this?movement?as?part?of the?successful?Islamic Awakening?movements,” Ali Akbar Velayati, a?senior?counsel?to Supreme Leader Khamenei,?said?in October 2014. But Tehran has?constantly?denied?furnishing?arms,?finances,?or?training?to the Houthis.
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Saudi Arabia has long?indicted?Iran of arming the Houthis to?fight?a?proxy war. “We’re?upset?about the?tendencies?of Iran in the?region, which is one of the?commanding?rudiments?implanting?insecurity?in the?region,” the?late?Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Saud al Faisal,?said?in 2015.
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In October 2016, a U.S.? admiral said?that the U.S. Navy and?allied ?warships?had?interdicted?five?arms and ammunition?shipments from Iran to the Arabian Peninsula since April 2015. The shipments reportedly?included anti-tank?missiles, sniper rifles and thousands of AK- 47?automatic?rifles.
In April 2017, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson?said?that Iran supports the Houthis’ “attempted overthrow the?ruling government?by?supporting the Houthis,?therefore?endangering?Saudi Arabia’s southern?border.” In November 2017,?still, Revolutionary?Guards?commander Major Gen. Ali Jafari?claimed?that “Iran’s?backing?is at the?position?of?premonitory?and?spiritual?support.”
In?late?2017. In November, Saudi Arabia?charged?Iran with an?act?of?war?for a?missile?fired?at the Saudi?capital?by the Houthis in Yemen. Iran?denied?any?links?to the?attack. But?remnants?of four ballistic?dumdums?fired?into Saudi Arabia by the Houthis on May 19, July 22, July 26 and November 4, 2017,?appear?to?have?been?designed?and?manufactured?by Iran,?according?to a?confidential U.N.?report?from November 2017.
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In conclusion, Houthis are pro Russia-Iran alliance and are anti-US, anti-Saudi and anti-Israel as a matter of fact. This makes them another enemy of the Western powers.
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PRESENT
In January 2019, the U.N. Panel of Experts on Yemen reported that the Houthis were gaining access to highly advanced drone technology. The unmanned upstanding vehicles continued to be used in Yemen, inferring that the Houthi forces retained access to the critical factors, similar as machines, guidance systems, from abroad that are necessary to assemble and emplace them.The experts said that the Houthis gained access to a fresh drone in mid-2018 with the implicit range of over to 932 long hauls. “It would give credence to the claims by the Houthis that they've the capability to hit targets similar as Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Dubai, ” they wrote. The panel also stressed the wide use of “self-murder or kamikaze drones ” drones fitted with snares that crash into their targets. The report noted that the most- generally used Houthi drone was the Qasef- 1, first seen in the field in 2016, which is analogous to the Iranian- made Ababil- 2/ T self-murder drone.
In February 2022, U.S. Central Command intertwined Iran in furnishing advanced artillery to the Houthis after they fired ballistic dumdums at Abu Dhabi.“ Medium range ballistic dumdums that were fired from Yemen and entered UAE weren't constructed, erected, designed in Yemen, ” General Kenneth McKenzie told journalists. “All that happed nearly differently. So, I suppose we clearly see the Iranian connection to this.”
The Houthis have other sources of support, still. They've reportedly entered backing from original sympathizers and sympathetic charities as well as from illegal trade.
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FUTURE
Geographical Importance of the Houthis
The Houthis are now controlling the capital of Yemen and the Babel Mandeb Strait which is a choke point south of Red Sea just like the Suez Canal of Egypt. Babel Mandeb is just a ?26 Km long strait so blocking it is very easy. This route handles 1 trillion USD worth of goods or rather 30% of shipping containers worldwide. This is catastropical for the world trade since both Suez Canal and Babel Mandeb strait connects Red Sea to Mediterranean and hence trade of goods between Asia and Europe. The alternative to this route is additional 8900 Kms. around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. This detour makes both import and export from and to India and other Asian countries more expensive due to additional fuel costs of the ships.
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领英推荐
Implications of Houthi Attacks on Cargo Ships in the Red Sea: An Indian Perspective
Recently there have been 37 attacks on commercial ships by Houthis using the drones.
Now 20% of India’s exports rather 200 billion USD worth of exports go through this route. This conflict is not only affecting Indian ships but ships from other countrie are being attacked by the Houthis. ?Since this war has come very close to India, it has become a huge headache for the Indian government, and they have decided to deploy Indian navy and drones to ensure the safety of shipments to and from India. Earlier they were targeting ships that belonged to the Israeli companies or shipments that were Israel bound. The Houthis have claimed responsibilities for the attacks, and they have started attacking all the allied or neutral countries around the world to create more pressure on the Israel and pressurize other countries to cut their trade relations with Israel. The insurance cost of the ships have risen from 0.2 to 0.5% per voyage.
Most of the ships have been rerouted around Africa and it is causing huge traffic along that route which is further leading to delay in shipping time. ?This crisis paired with Panama canal crisis is crippling the world economy.
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Possible Remedies:
? International Cooperation:?Increased collaboration between maritime nations to secure the Red Sea is crucial.?A combined naval presence and intelligence sharing could deter Houthi attacks and ensure safe passage for vessels.
? Alternative Routes:?Exploring and investing in alternative trade routes,?like the East Coast of Africa and the Chabahar Port in Iran,?could reduce dependence on the Red Sea and provide more diversified options.
Diplomatic Efforts:?Engaging with the Yemeni government,?the Houthis,?and regional stakeholders to address the root causes of the conflict in Yemen is essential for long-term stability and security in the Red Sea.
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References
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