The Houthi Attempt to Intimidate German Shipowners, and Will the Red Sea Crisis End Completely in January Next Year?
As part of its campaign to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea that it associates with Israel, the Houthis have been actively threatening shipowners the Association of German Shipowners (VDR) revealed on November 18. The militants' use of a spokesperson and social media is well known, but the association says the group is also using emails to threaten shipping companies.
Members of the VDR management board stated that the Houthi rebels obviously have well-researched email addresses, as the threats were also sent to individuals with strong targeting. The association also stated that the German Navy has confirmed the authenticity of the threat messages, which were sent "in recent months."
The association reported that the Houthi threats are aimed at ships berthing at Israeli ports, as well as those passing through the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean. Regardless of their location, ships with supposed links to Israel are considered potential targets.
The VDR notes that German shipowners continue to divert their vessels around Africa. They highlighted the detour takes almost two weeks and causes higher costs. Thus, these threat emails highlight the risks faced by vessels and the necessity of rerouting.
The Houthi attacks on merchant ships
This year, the Houthi have attacked passing merchant ships in the Red Sea on multiple occasions. According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO),?a merchant ship crossing the southern Red Sea narrowly avoided a missile attack in the late night of November 17.?The ship, which was about 30 miles west of Yemen’s port city of Mocha, reported that a missile splashed into the sea near the vessel, but no damages or injuries occurred.
On October 28, a bulk carrier flying a Libyan flag was attacked by the Houthi while crossing the Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. The ship's captain reported an explosion nearby, just 150 meters from the vessel, and two more explosions occurred in the vicinity within the following two hours, 200 meters from the ship. The vessel was not hit, and the crew was safe. The Houthi spokesman confirmed the attack that night.
Insiders’?predictions
Despite the recent attacks by the Houthi on ships in the Red Sea, the head of a Canadian dry bulk operator believes that with the arrival of the Trump administration, the Red Sea crisis will take a turn for the better,?and the United States may resolve the issue through military intervention, thereby changing the situation in the Red Sea and allowing merchant fleets to safely transit the Red Sea again by January 2025.
However, his optimistic prediction contrasts sharply with the cautious views of most analysts and industry executives.
Most industry analysts believe that the situation in the Red Sea is unlikely to be completely resolved in the short term, especially against the backdrop of escalating military actions by the Houthi, which are more likely to lead to a long-term stalemate in the region. At the same time, for most shipping companies, the safety of navigation in the Red Sea remains a significant risk that cannot be ignored.
The CEO of a Danish shipping logistics giant stated at the earnings conference on October 30 this year that there are no signs of easing in the security situation in the Red Sea, and predicted that this situation may continue until 2025.
No country is spared
China has been the largest customer of the Suez Canal for several consecutive years. According to data from 2021, 60% of China's exports to the EU pass through the Red Sea via the Suez Canal. Since the end of last year, many Chinese shipping companies have also successively notified the suspension of cargo loading on the Red Sea route. On January 19, 2024, a senior official of the Houthi said in an interview with Russian media that?ships from China and Russia would not be threatened when sailing in the Red Sea.
?Since then, some small and medium-sized shipowners from China and Russia have realized the opportunity and redeployed ships to the Red Sea route to respond to the gap in Red Sea capacity. Public information shows that some Chinese shipping companies registered in Singapore have been deploying multiple merchant ships since January this year, adding several Red Sea ports such as Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, Sokhna in Egypt, and Aqaba in Jordan to the Mediterranean-North Africa route, and ensuring navigation safety through measures such as applying for escort from the Chinese Navy escort fleet, hiring professional maritime armed security teams, and deploying physical defense measures to prevent armed boarding.
To some extent, any ship associated with China and Russia will not be attacked in the Red Sea.?According to a report by Bloomberg in January this year, at that time, several merchant ships crossing the Red Sea filled in remarks such as "all crew members on board are Chinese" and "unrelated to Israel" in the public tracking information of the ships.
However, the risks have not been completely eliminated. On March 23, the U.S. Central Command (Centcom) stated that the Houthi fired five anti-ship ballistic missiles at an oil tanker owned and operated by China that day, one of which hit the hull, causing a fire on board.
Subsequent investigations by international media gradually revealed the details of the incident: Reuters cited a British maritime risk management company, saying that the registration information of the oil tanker, including its name and operator, was changed in February this year. It was previously registered by a British company, and another ship owned by that company was also attacked by the Houthi. Professionals believe that since shipping is a highly internationalized industry, ships, like cars, their ownership and leasing rights are constantly transferred and traded among shipping companies in various countries. The Houthi may not have the most comprehensive and up-to-date ship data, which may have led to the mistaken bombing of Chinese vessels.
Faced with the unstable situation in the Red Sea region, regardless of whether the Red Sea crisis can be resolved next year, the safety awareness and risk management capabilities of shipowners and crew members are particularly important. The warning from?the Association of German Shipowners (VDR)?reminds the shipping industry that the threat from the Houthi is real and urgent, therefore, shipowners and crew members must take all necessary measures to protect themselves and their vessels.
The first step is to closely monitor regional security dynamics, maintain communication with international maritime security organizations, and obtain the latest intelligence and security advice. Secondly, plan routes reasonably to avoid high-risk areas as much as possible, or take additional safety measures when passing through these areas.
Shipping companies also need to?consider long-term operational strategies, including possible route changes and increased costs. Although detouring around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa can temporarily avoid the threat of the Red Sea, this will increase sailing time and costs. Therefore, companies need to assess the impact of this change on their business and look for possible solutions, such as improving transportation efficiency, adjusting pricing strategies, or seeking government support.
In summary, the unstable situation in the Red Sea region requires shipowners and crew members to remain highly vigilant, take all possible preventive measures, and ensure the safety of personnel and assets. At the same time, shipping companies need to flexibly adjust their operational strategies to cope with the constantly changing geopolitical environment. Only in this way can the shipping industry maintain stable and sustainable development during this challenging period.