A Hot Summer
Rajiv Chopra
Business advisor. Specialist in leadership, growth & business turnaround. Focus on SME. Author & fine-art photography
Anectode
The summer invites a familiar litany from all of us. You can accuse me of constant whining–about the heat, humidity, and impending death–signifying my inability to withstand the heat. I prefer cold weather, but I live in Delhi. Most of us are familiar with the example of the frog in water. If you throw a frog in boiling water, it will react to the scalding heat. Yet, if you allow the water to heat slowly, the frog will become accustomed to the rising temperature. Then, when the heat reaches a tipping point, the frog dies.
Long gaps punctuated my time in Delhi, which is why I am aware to the changes in the climate. Most people here only mutter inanities like, 'The weather has become unpredictable.' I overheard two young office workers make that statement at Starbucks.
I remember the dense fog that was a constant aspect of Delhi's winters, adding a mystical charm to the city. The summer period, April-June, was hot and dry. Most of us used desert coolers and not air-conditioners. We started using air-conditioners only in the middle of July when the humid heat became intolerable. Over the last few years, I noticed a change in Delhi's weather patterns. The winters have become warmer, and the humid weather starts early–in May. The sweltering heat is relentless in September when the monsoon begins its retreat.
A Warming Planet
Since I started reading about climate change, I became familiar with phrases like 'internal humidity,' 'heat islands,' 'wet bulb globe temperature', etc. When working with DSM–my last corporate assignment–I became familiar with the term, 'sustainability.'
Most scientists write about the dangers to fragile regions (often in the 'Global South') like coastal regions, the Himalayas, the Poles, etc. However, some writers ignore the dangers of a warming planet.
This year, we seemed to have crossed one tipping point. This year seems to be the hottest year on record. In India, August has been the driest in a century.
Most of us living in India have seen horrific images of the horror in Himachal Pradesh, where the waters washed away bridges, buildings, and highway parts. I have seen similar visuals in Greece and Brazil in the last few days.
The smoke from the Canadian fires wafted over America, causing a spike in pollution, alarm and (I am sure) a spurt in respiratory diseases.
Global temperatures have risen by 0.14 degrees Fahrenheit (0.08 degrees Celsius) per decade since 1880. This rise translates into a temperature rise of 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.14 degrees Celsius). However, since 1981, temperatures rose much faster, at 0.32 degrees Fahrenheit (0.18 degrees Celsius) per decade.
The data supports my anecdotal paragraphs about the changes in Delhi.
2022 was the sixth hottest year, and 2023 appears to be the hottest. I do not believe these are records we ought to be proud of.
A recent article states the planet will breach the original target of 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next five years. In the Paris Accord, world leaders agreed to cap the temperature rise (from pre-industrial times) at well below 2 degrees Celsius and try to cap it at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Most of us are familiar with "SMART" goals, where the "T" stands for time. The Paris Accord stated that the world will cap the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. We are failing. Most scientists believe we will breach the target by 2027 AD.
Allow me to adopt a cold, businesslike approach to the problem of a heating planet. Further, allow me to ignore the humanitarian aspects of climate disasters. Climate change affects everyone. We must be clear about this.
A Short List of The Effect on Businesses
What are the outcomes of a warming planet, and how will these affect businesses? I list a few effects, and I assure you that this list is short.
1.??? Natural disasters:
1.1. What happens if rain waters wash your office away? There is a cost to rebuilding your office infrastructure.
1.2. Floods disrupt business logistics and also damage public infrastructure.
2.??? Health:
2.1. Heat affects health and cognition.
2.2. Heat reduces productivity, worsens health, and increases mortality.
2.3. Disease-causing insects like mosquitoes spread to areas where once there was no mosquito. We did not have mosquitoes when I was studying in the hill town of Nainital in India (2,000 metres above sea level). I saw mosquitoes when I visited two years back.
2.4. The risk of global pandemics will keep increasing.
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3.??? Food inflation:
3.1. A warming planet will affect cropping patterns.
3.2. A warming world, with frequent flooding, will destroy crops.
3.3. ?Erratic rainfall will, once again, destroy crops.
3.4. In a warming world, pests proliferate, increasing damage to crops.
4.??? Cost of doing business:
4.1. The cost of air-conditioning will increase.
4.2. The chances of accidents because of burst tires increase.
When the Planet Heats.
When the planet heats, you cannot assume that business will run "as usual." Many politicians and business leaders shy away from the hard choices we must make. I don't believe the solution lies only in "clean energy." However, if we don't act now, we will doom the planet, and with this, we will condemn our descendants to an unpleasant future.
In the meantime, we will have to adopt the frog's behaviour as it adjusts to the "gradual" rise in temperature.
Links (in no particular order)
·????? https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature
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1 年Thanks, Rajiv for your perspective and analysis on this existential topic that is having and will have disastrous consequences for humanity. Should this be the primary focus of the participants of the G-20 who are in Delhi now!