“The Hot Reality: Living in a +50°C World”

With “no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place” today and the impacts of climate change induced heat extremes already being felt across the globe, it is a human imperative that we now focus our efforts to build the adaptive capacity and the step-change in resilience that will deliver sustainable, equitable and resilient societies in a warming world. AND we must do this within the limits of the planet’s natural resource boundaries?while simultaneously mitigating future climate threats. Without a radical global change in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation we are heading for a 2.8°C increase in temperature by the end of this century[1].

Central to humans living and thriving in these higher temperature environments will be the need for more cooling.??Cooling and cold-chains are not optional or lifestyle luxuries. They are critical infrastructure for a well-functioning, well adapted, resilient and healthy society and economy; as vital as a water-pipe, electricity cable or road. They enable our access to basic essentials of life, such as food and health, and provide safe environments to live and work. More broadly, they also underpin modern communications, trade and commerce, and learning.

But making hot air cold is energy intensive and economically and environmentally very costly. The hotter the air, the more energy consumed to cool it down: the higher the cost, and, paradoxically, the greater the demand for cooling. Cooling already accounts for more than 10% of global fossil CO2?emissions, or 7% of all global GHG emissions,[2]?HFCs are in fact the fastest-growing source of GHG emissions in the world due to the increasing global demand for space cooling and refrigeration.?Air conditioning accounts for nearly 10% of the world’s total electricity consumption, and almost 20% of all the electricity used in buildings.?While today only less than a third of households around the world own an air conditioner,[3]?two in every three households around the world is expected to have one by 2050.?

How we approach cooling provision in adaptation to higher temperatures will play a critical role in mitigating global warming.?To ensure success, we must go far beyond incremental changes in energy efficiency and transitioning to renewables. We must create a sustainable new “cold economy” underpinned by cohesive, integrated, needs-driven, resource-smart, system-level strategies.

Future solutions, including innovative engineering, technologies, behaviour changes and business models will be critically contingent on our near-term efforts. We need to create a joined-up consensus-based long-term vision of a fully adapted and resilient, but hotter, world; identify the many associated challenges and opportunities involved in delivering on the vision; understand, prioritise and address urgent global research needs and gaps; build the diverse community of actors and institutions to be engaged in making change happen; and develop a roadmap that provides an outline of actions to be taken now and in coming decades along with prioritised next steps.?

The Hot Reality: Living in a +50°C World” is a collaborative project led by the Africa Centre for Sustainable Cooling??and Cold-chain (ACES) and the UK’s Centre for Sustainable Cooling and brings together an international group of multi-discipline, multi-sector experts and aligned interested parties. The aim: to explore through the lens of the cooling needs how humans can adapt in a sustainable, resilient, just and equitable way to living in a a world in which seasonal ambient temperatures are continuously rising and extreme heatwaves are becoming more frequent and prolonged, along with other extreme weather being experienced more broadly. A series of events will be held this autumn to garner wider insights and??first report will be published later this year. The first of these is in London at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, 6th?September –?James Clayton Lecture and?1st International Conference and Workshop on Climate Adaptation and Resilience, taking place from 6-8 September 2023

Taking a whole system approach across critical areas for human well-being including food; water; health; energy; safe environments in which to live and work; transport, we will aim to?

·???????understand the need and scope for change – the size of the prize of intervention or, conversely, the costs of doing nothing/business as usual;?

·???????the challenges of adaptation and building capacity for resilience;?

·???????the global research needs and gaps that must be prioritised and addressed, and?

·???????what this means for governments worldwide, the opportunities that might emerge, and the approaches, strategies and solutions to be considered - not just engineering and technology, but also behavioural and social change, urban and rural planning, governance, policy, finance and business models, skills and capacity building, and natural ecosystems, amongst others.

At all times we must continue to drive action on climate change mitigation through emissions reduction as well as support a just transition to renewables. The number of rural and urban poor at high risk from lack of cooling has risen by more than 15% to 1.2bn since 2020 and forecast scenarios for populations at risk through to 2030 show?that numbers continue to increase. Current interventions are materially not adequate.?

The project is ambitious and aspirational but the programme of work is creating a global community of collaborators committed to delivering against its challenging aims. Join us on the collaborative journey to urgently deliver an actionable plan for successfully adapting to the new hot reality facing the human race: Living in a +50°C World.?

James Clayton Lecture and?1st International Conference and Workshop on Climate Adaptation and Resilience, taking place from 6-8 September 2023

[1]?UNEP estimate a 2.8°C increase in the global mean temperature by 2100 based on?an analysis of current policies and pledges.

[2]?In total, around 80% of the GHG emissions from cooling technologies is associated with indirect emissions from energy use, whereas 20% is associated with direct emissions from refrigerant use?(Peters 2018a).

[3]?In 2018, air conditioner ownership was 90% among households in Japan and the US, however, among the 2.8 billion people living in the hottest parts of the world,?air conditioner ownership was only 8%?(IEA 2018).