The Horn of Africa's Precarious Geopolitical Tightrope: Navigating Rivalries, Alliances, and the Specter of Conflict.

Introduction:

The Horn of Africa has become a veritable hotbed of geopolitical tensions, with the region serving as a battleground for various regional and global powers vying for influence and control. The intricate web of alliances, proxy wars, and strategic posturing has created a volatile and unpredictable environment, with far-reaching implications for regional and global security.

The Houthi-Israel-Iran Nexus:

At the heart of the conflict lies the ongoing war in Gaza, which has become intertwined with the broader regional dynamics. Iran has been accused of providing support to the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been actively engaged in attacks against Saudi-led forces and shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. This has led to heightened tensions between Iran and Israel, with Eritrea and Sudan emerging as potential battlegrounds for their proxy war.

The Quest for Military Bases and Regional Dominance:

In the midst of this volatile landscape, both Iran and Israel have been seeking to establish a stronger foothold in the region Israel is already having a base in Eriteria. Reports suggest that Iran working to set up a military base in Sudan, while Israel is believed to have a base in the same country. This has led to a complex web of alliances and rivalries, with the Horn of Africa becoming a battleground for these regional powers to assert their influence.

1. Eritrea:

- Israel is believed to have a military base or intelligence gathering facility in Eritrea (Filkins, 2023).

2. Sudan:

?? Iran has been reportedly working to set up a military base in Sudan, likely to counter Israeli and Western influence in the area (Abdelaziz & Hafezi, 2022).

?? There are also unconfirmed reports that Israel may have a military presence or base in Sudan as well, though the details are unclear (Ezzat, 2022).

3. Djibouti:

?? Djibouti hosts military bases for several international powers, including:

?? United States - Camp Lemonnier, a major U.S. military base in the region (Zissis, 2021).

?? France - Maintains a substantial military presence in Djibouti (Losh, 2021).

?? China - Established its first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017 (Maasho, 2017).

4. Somalia:

?? Turkey has a military base in Mogadishu, Somalia, which it uses to train Somali forces and project influence in the region (Nor & Gebre, 2022).

?? The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also previously had a military base in Berbera, Somaliland, until it withdrew in 2019 (Mosley, 2019).

Escalating Tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia:

Adding to the regional tensions, the Eritrean government has announced that it will ban Ethiopian Airlines flights from landing in Eritrea starting from September 30, 2024. Additionally, the Eritrean authorities have called on the Sudanese Ambassador to leave the capital, Asmara. These actions further exacerbate the already strained relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia, whose internal conflict has been a source of instability in the region.

The Role of Regional Powers:

The involvement of other regional powers, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, has further complicated the situation. The UAE has been a close ally of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, while Saudi Arabia has maintained close ties with Sudan and Egypt. This has led to a complex web of alliances and rivalries, with the Horn of Africa becoming a battleground for these regional powers to assert their influence.

The Geopolitical Significance of the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait:

The Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait are of crucial geostrategic importance, as they serve as a vital maritime chokepoint and a critical gateway for global trade. Approximately 12% of the world's seaborne trade, including 9% of global oil supplies, passes through this region. The security and stability of this corridor are therefore of paramount importance to the global economy.

The Impact on Ethiopia and the Djibouti Port:

Ethiopia, a landlocked country, relies heavily on the Djibouti port for its trade, with an estimated 95% of its trade passing through this facility. The instability and potential conflict in the Horn of Africa, coupled with the Houthi threat in the Red Sea, pose a significant risk to Ethiopia's economic well-being and the security of its critical trade routes.

The Türkiye Factor and the Somalia-Djibouti-Eritrea Triangle:

Adding to the complexity of the situation is the involvement of Türkiye, which has established a strong military presence in Somalia and has been actively engaged in the regional dynamics. Türkiye has also been aligned with the government of Somalia, while Djibouti and Eritrea have their own complex relationship, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

The Specter of Civil War in Sudan:

Another critical factor in the regional dynamics is the looming threat of civil war in Sudan. The country has been grappling with political instability and ethnic tensions, which have the potential to escalate into a full-blown conflict. The involvement of various regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in supporting different factions within Sudan, further exacerbates the risk of a protracted civil war. Such a conflict in Sudan could have far-reaching consequences for the stability of the entire Horn of Africa region, disrupting trade routes, triggering refugee crises, and drawing in other regional players.

Geopolitical Theories and Perspectives:

From the lens of realist theory, the ongoing power struggle in the Horn of Africa can be seen as a classic case of states vying for influence and control over strategic resources and territory. The neorealist perspective would suggest that the regional powers are primarily motivated by concerns over security and the balance of power, leading to an escalation of tensions and the potential for conflict.

Constructivist theorists would emphasize the role of identity, ideology, and historical grievances in shaping the behavior of the various actors in the region. The Houthi-Israel-Iran nexus, for instance, could be viewed through the prism of religious and ideological cleavages, rather than purely material interests.

From a critical geopolitics standpoint, the Horn of Africa can be seen as a site of contestation and resistance, where various local and regional actors are challenging the hegemonic control of global powers. The recent visits by the Ethiopian Prime Minister to Port Sudan and the Somali President to Asmara can be interpreted as attempts to forge new regional alliances and recalibrate the existing power dynamics.

Consequences and Future Outlook:

The potential consequences of the escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa are far-reaching. The Eritrean government's decision to ban Ethiopian Airlines flights and expel the Sudanese Ambassador from Asmara could further aggravate the already strained relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia, potentially leading to increased military posturing and the risk of direct confrontation. The internal conflict within Ethiopia, marked by ethnic tensions and political instability, could further exacerbate the regional dynamics and undermine the country's ability to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape. This, in turn, could have dire consequences for Ethiopia's economy and its dependence on the Djibouti port, as well as its relationships with neighboring states like Somalia.

The looming threat of civil war in Sudan could also have catastrophic impacts on the region. A prolonged conflict in Sudan could disrupt trade routes, trigger a humanitarian crisis, and draw in other regional powers, further destabilizing the Horn of Africa. The region's already fragile peace and security could be jeopardized, with far-reaching implications for global stability.

Ethiopia's Pursuit of Port Access:

From a theoretical and empirical perspective, the possibility of Ethiopia going to war with its neighbors to secure access to ports cannot be ruled out. Realist theories would suggest that Ethiopia, as a landlocked country, might be compelled to use military force to ensure its economic and security interests in the region. The need for reliable and secure access to maritime trade routes could be a key driver for such a conflict. Historically, there are examples of landlocked countries engaging in military conflicts to gain access to ports or coastlines. One such example is the Paraguayan War (1865-1870), where Paraguay fought against a coalition of Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay to gain access to the Atlantic Ocean. While the specific dynamics of the Horn of Africa differ, the underlying geopolitical logic of a landlocked country seeking to secure maritime access could potentially lead to similar conflicts in the region.

However, it is important to note that the current geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa is highly complex, with multiple regional and global powers involved. The risk of a direct military confrontation between Ethiopia and its neighbors is further compounded by the internal political and ethnic tensions within Ethiopia, as well as the broader web of alliances and rivalries in the region. Any such conflict would have far-reaching consequences for regional and global stability, and would require careful diplomatic maneuvering and conflict resolution efforts.

Conclusion:

The Horn of Africa has become a powder keg of geopolitical tensions, with the potential for a wider regional conflict that could have far-reaching consequences for global security and the world economy. The intricate web of alliances, proxy wars, and the strategic importance of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait and the Red Sea corridor make this region a critical focal point for international attention and diplomacy. The potential for a civil war in Sudan further complicates the regional dynamics, with the risk of destabilizing the entire Horn of Africa. The ability of the various actors to navigate these complex dynamics and find a path towards stability, peace, and security will be crucial in determining the future of this volatile region.

Sources:

Abdelaziz, K., & Hafezi, P. (2022, June 7). Exclusive: Iran working to establish naval base in Sudan, officials say. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/exclusive-iran-working-establish-naval-base-sudan-officials-say-2022-06-07/

Ezzat, F. (2022, May 27). Israel's military presence in Sudan: Reality or fiction? Middle East Monitor. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220527-israels-military-presence-in-sudan-reality-or-fiction/

Filkins, D. (2023, January 25). The Shadow War. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/01/30/the-shadow-war

Losh, J. (2021, March 15). France deepens military presence in Djibouti amid regional tensions. DW. https://www.dw.com/en/france-deepens-military-presence-in-djibouti-amid-regional-tensions/a-56880253

Maasho, A. (2017, August 1). China officially opens first overseas military base in Djibouti. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-djibouti-idUSKBN1AH3EW

Mosley, J. (2019, June 29). UAE's military pullback from Berbera raises questions over Horn of Africa strategy. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jun/29/uaes-military-pullback-from-berbera-raises-questions-over-horn-of-africa-strategy

Nor, O., & Gebre, S. (2022, December 5). Turkey's Military Presence in Somalia: Projecting Influence in the Horn of Africa. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/12/05/turkey-s-military-presence-in-somalia-projecting-influence-in-horn-of-africa-pub-88453

Zissis, C. (2021, February 22). The U.S. Military Presence in Djibouti. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-military-presence-djibouti

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