Hope doesn’t have any protective factors in Ukraine right now

My heart is heavy today…

I am disheartened for the Ukrainian people. I am disheartened to have war in Europe. I am disheartened to have actual war in the actual 21st century; we should be over this kind of thing by now. I am disheartened to have armed conflict at the border of my beloved Romania.

Beyond the obvious that war is always bad, this is a really bad situation. Not just a sad situation, but a bad bad bad situation any way you cut it. There are countless ways, and none of them good, in which the subsequent chips are going to fall.?

The US has already declared the first set of sanctions on Russia, which, if you know anything about the Russian temperament, you would know that such sanctions will be like gasoline on the fire of the Russian national pride, while also putting the region in a bind because of the energy interdependencies connected to natural gas, among other things. We’ll see inflation, we’ll see economic contraction in Eastern Europe, we’ll see a set of humanitarian tsunamis, and much more.

This is also bad news for Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, because as NATO members in the region, they will get dragged in once this gets rough. And also, yes, Romania, my country of origin. This war bodes particularly alarming for Romania given its geopolitical location on the southern border of Ukraine.

Putin is not messing around. He is not the kind of person you can reason with, nor hope that others could reason with. For those who admire his strength (and there are many who do), it is clearly not obvious that said strength comes from the psychopathic ruthlessness of a person who doesn’t care about anything. And that includes not caring about those that admire him.

My brother, while living 89 miles from the Ukrainian border said today “Putin is a difficult person.” Excuse me, what?? You have wannabe-Hitler breathing down your neck with actual tanks, hundreds of thousands of troops, economic choking, and cyber warfare, and all you say is “he is a difficult person”? What degree of denial do you have to be in?

While I am not a political strategist, I am an actual strategist, and I can tell that Romania’s position as a NATO member at the only border of Ukraine that does not currently have Russian troops is a dangerous position. On one hand, Romania being a NATO member makes the country a powerplay pawn for the US and the EU. Guess who pays the collateral price when you are the tool of rich and powerful people? That’s right! Guess who will become a secondary target because by destabilizing you, the aggressor destabilizes those that can stop him? That’s right!

As of today, military convoys have already been transferred to Romanian NATO bases from Western Europe, adding anti-aircraft systems, medical tech, troops, and other technology to key strategic points in the country.?War is already there.

Russia has already taken control today of a nuclear power plant in the Republic of Moldova. That is SO close to the city of my birth, it makes my hair stand on end because I do remember Chernobyl.

And in the meantime, cyber attacks have already hacked news agencies in Romania. I imagine this is a scenario that is repeating itself in Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia because manipulation, disinformation, and propaganda are effective tactics to win a war with less bullets.

Putin could only benefit from a weaker Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, because that, in turn, weakens any potential support for Ukraine on the NATO side, while weakening directly US and EU leverage in the region, and making it much harder for Ukraine to get humanitarian help from their neighbors, therefore increasing its chances of surrender if it comes to that.

Guess where the millions of refugees from Ukraine will first go? If you answered “to the only country that borders Ukraine that does not currently have Russian troops”, you are correct. What will happen to real estate, local jobs, supply chain, basic goods, and crime once those refugees move those 89 miles from the Ukrainian border into Romania proper, given that the Romanian government is currently thoroughly and utterly unprepared to absorb or manage a significant influx of refugees? In two words: nothing good.

What will these men, women, and children eat? How will they stay warm in the dead of winter? Who will keep them safe from crime? Who will provide them with medical assistance?

What will happen to my brother and his family? To his home value? To his job, in the wake of sudden supply of cheap and desperate labor??What happens to the Romanian currency and to the assets my brother worked decades to put together for his old age and the future of his child?

We were talking today at lunch, and my daughter said: “mommy please tell them to get out of there immediately!” A 10 year old child understands unequivocally what you can and should do as an individual family. While she does not have the geopolitical solution in aggregate (which is totally honorable because nobody does at this point, short of sending James Bond to do some surgical interventions; oh, wait! James Bond is a fictional character. Nevermind!) she does have the accurate first response: get out of there now. Protect yourself and those you love. Protect the life you worked hard to build.

Do you think that’s what my brother is going to do? I am willing to bet hard cash on the fact that at absolute best, he will take my advice and create a “go bag” then stock his pantry and his natural gas tank.?

Will he convert his savings into GBP or USD and move them into a bank outside Romania, as I recommended? Doubtful. He should, but he won’t. Will he sell his real estate, take the cash, and move to Madrid or whatever? No. I hope he will, but he won’t.

We talked for a long time this morning, my brother and I. His strategy is hope. Hope that the conflict will be contained to the country currently under attack - which no armed conflict ever does.?

Will he learn from the lessons of Syria and Lebanon in the last decade, or the lessons of Poland and Austria in 1939? I asked him to remember what happened to those countries, to remember what happened to the people who had to flee, and to remember how they were received in the places they had to flee too, and more importantly, what happened to the people that didn’t flee…

He will not learn from history because he doesn’t like what he is hearing, and because we all have the mythical underpants delusion that some benevolent deity will cast a circle around our home and allow us to live our comfortable lives in peace. Because change is hard and complex, and it involves the dispelling of myths we would rather believe in.

Even if Putin turns around next week and says “eh, I was just testing the waters to see what G7 and the rest of the world might do” and then goes back to his usual, less-war-mongering schedule, I do not believe for a second that he is giving up on the annexation of Ukraine. He is a predator, and he wants Ukraine, therefore he will either get it one day, or he will die trying. Predators are binary.

It is only a matter of time. Even assuming Putin doesn’t bypass the sanctions by cutting a deal with China (which, if I were China, I would be licking my chops right about now), this regional mess is still thoroughly frightening.?

The Balkans have always been a powder keg with a geostrategic short fuse.?

It is much easier to make a plan before the situation escalates. And yes, it is Eastern Europe; it is not a matter of IF it will escalate, only WHEN, and how badly.?

Hope doesn’t have any protective factors.?

Now is the time to take action as an individual: before your assets lose value, or worse yet, before you lose the assets completely to the war. Before a million refugees come to your doorstep and you have nothing to give them - not even your compassion, because by then, your fear for your own life and for your own livelihood would have already wiped out whatever ounces of empathy you might have had. Before you get injured. Before your wife or mother-in-law get raped. Before your chickens get stolen, and your diesel supply chain gets disrupted while jumping in price a hundred fold. Before inflation hits. Before time passes and you get older, less brave, less energetic, less of an asset, and more of a liability.?

It is much easier to make a plan before you need it. It is much easier to execute a plan before life pushes you into a corner.

My sister in law said today “we are praying it will all turn out OK in the end.” I felt like crying. Yes, please my dear, pray. I think many of us are praying right now.?

And then act swiftly, because nobody is watching your back, and the government (all governments at this very moment) don’t know what to do about this war, while themselves being burdened by the systemic inertia government mechanisms are rightfully designed to have.?

You are on your own. We are always on our own in the end.