A HONEST ACCOUNT OF NIGERIA'S REVVING POLITICAL TSUNAMI

A HONEST ACCOUNT OF NIGERIA’S REVVING POLITICAL TSUNAMI

Yes, a political tsunami is coming. I feel it in my bones. In the 2006 tsunami in South East Asia, domestic animals were said to have climbed to higher grounds while humans went picking easy fish on the beds of the receded beaches. Then the high water came and hundreds of thousands were dead in the unfortunate devastation. This story may not be entirely true, and not all domestic animals would have escaped, but when I heard the story it reminded me just how dead human instincts have become. Noise crowds out our instincts. We have to be more perceptive, meditative, reflective and wary. A tsunami is coming in 2019, says the Lord, but I don’t know what form it will take. For me, I have run to higher ground, by doing the only logical thing now; getting involved. 

The oceanography institute says this about tsunamis;  “Tsunamis are giant waves caused by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions under the sea. Out in the depths of the ocean, tsunami waves do not dramatically increase in height. But as the waves travel inland, they build up to higher and higher heights as the depth of the ocean decreases.”

What is happening on the political scene in Nigeria today is the clear beginnings of a tsunami. For one, there are giant waves unseen on the surface and among our people right now. Nigerians are genuinely tired of the political rigmarole even if they have been reduced to nothing by weaponized poverty in the hands of our leading political elites. The tsunami is beginning to make landfall and we can see that first with the number of jostlers for the presidency. There are over 60 people from all walks of life and all persuasions gunning for Nigeria’s number one job; the presidency. Some are serious some are not. Some are extremely brilliant, some not so much. The public has asked that all these people merge and present just one of them which ‘they can rally around’. As sound as this logic looks, it also comes with some fatal flaws viz;

1. Nigerians seem to think that the problem confronting them is an easy one and can be reduced to a binary option; either Buhari or one more person. In think contrary though. The socioeconomic and political problems facing Nigeria are complex and convoluted, and calls for Nigerians to think deeper, work harder, lose more sleep, search more meticulously. I believe the focus should be on the ideas that each aspirant is pushing and proposing and their abilities to convince Nigerians to those ideas. By asking for just one person, many young Nigerians also reveal that they still want things served a la carte, simplified, put in a neat box for them. Just as we have always waited for power to be delivered to us at home, or preferably in bed, we also want the solution to be presented so simply so that we can just blindly walk to the polling booth on voting days and dreamily append our thumb on the right space, then return to our reverie. Chances are this idea will not work. Too simplistic for a country as screwed up as Nigeria. Nigerian youths especially must know that in all great countries, the youth got more actively, intelligently and philosophically involved. It’s a lot of hard work. 
2. If the aspirants come together so quickly to present a single consensus candidate, it will be so easy to clamp down on, clip the wings of, blackmail or intimidate such a candidate. This is high stakes warfare and every aspirant should know that have taken on a death wish. I say it is better that the status quo is worried about 60 or 70 people tugging away and trying to remove them from office, than one person who sees him/herself as superstar. For now, we are tough to track, and are busy putting ideas into the heads of Nigerians through our daily multiple engagements with the press and social media as well as townhall meetings. The moment we choose and present one person, all others will stop spending or going through the troubles, even if they promise not to. I have seen how tough it is to get people in politics to spend on something which does not boost their chances, their own images, profiles or egos. The investment behind the change of status quo is therefore directly proportional to the number of players on the field. And so also is the impact dependent on how many people are putting their monies behind this project in their own different way. Let the public endure the momentary confusion while we sort things out. Finances apart, it is better for the project of rewiring and reorienting Nigerians that 70 people are speaking to TV stations, Radio Stations, engaging on Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, WhatsApp and the rest, than just one lone sheep. If we have observed the animal kingdom we will see that predators always like to quickly isolate their prey from the herd. Together the herd is strong and can defend itself. I believe that the coming together can take place a month to the elections. For now, we owe it a duty to our nation to spend our money, time, connections, network, goodwill and other resources to educate and energize our circle of influence. That is how tsunamis are built up. These are the actions and activities strengthening the waves in the depth of the political sea. 
3. The process of arriving at the ‘consensus’ candidate must be thorough, drawn-out, and owned by the public. There is nothing to be in a hurry about in such a critical decision. Except we want to have a roughshod result, which will defeat the purpose and be worse than the crowded field we want to avoid. 

I told some of my co-aspirants that I would prefer a situation where we beef up our team before taking any decision to present anyone. As many of these 60-70 aspirants should be contacted and brought to the fold. Then we should take the decision to the public by organizing the ‘debate before the debate’, and the ‘election before the elections’. Nothing will seize the current lousy narrative of ‘defection’ or it is ‘defecation’ politics, like when the public start to get direct insight into our efforts to produce that single candidate. Nothing will seize public imagination and attention more than this. Another great danger is that if a few choose one of theirs, the remaining multitude are not bound by that decision. So it will be a waste of time. More importantly if the public is part of the process by seeing the debates and even by voting, then naturally the consensus choice would have gained the buy-in of a considerable portion of the voting populace.

The issues with the Nigerian youth of voting age is still there though. Add to the general tendency to want things easy, then fact that they get easily distracted. There are so many things competing for the attention of today’s youth (so many pages to browse on the internet, so many social media handles to keep up with, so many tv stations on satellite, and youtube etc). They therefore cannot stay on anything for too long. They always have to be on the move, at least mentally. There is some sort of attention deficit issue going on. So even if we choose one person and that person makes a slip before the coming elections, says or does something that irritates the youths, they could decide to shift en masse, and it will be like we hadn’t gone through all this trouble. By and large that consensus candidate may be a myth, because what we are being asked to do is essentially to choose someone who combines what all others have. The person must be cerebral, know a lot about economics and sociology, be great in forensics and investigation, be an orator, be good looking, be an organiser, a crowd-pleaser, must have gathered great experience over the years, be a visionary, must be poor and rich at the same time, and must be an hermaphrodite to boot. 

A LOT WILL EMERGE BEFORE D-DAY

I know for sure that a lot will happen between now and the next elections. Many aspirants will not get their party tickets - naturally. The crowd will thin out. Many political parties will reveal the reasons for the existence by throwing in the towel for one of the ‘big two’ political SPVs called APC and PDP, or the parties with the access to the commonwealth. The crowd will thin out even more. I don’t see more than 15 presidential aspirants in the end - even without any consensus from anywhere. Very few parties are going to be able to hold their own and fulfill INEC requirements before then with the shaky states of many of them. 

Then we have to look at the tribal and religious permutations. Whereas the ‘zoning’ thing is basically a PDP arrangement which Buhari managed to ride on in APC, some parties are thinking along this line while some don’t want to be soiled by it. There is a large number of guys from the north who are jostling, among whom are Tambuwal, Kwankwaso, Lamido, Dankwambo, Baba-Ahmed, Tanimu, Atiku, etc. Most of them are on the APC/PDP train and only one of them will be lucky to win PDP candidacy. APC looks very dicey with Buhari being determined to continue. Some of these guys may try and launch on some of the new parties, but most will just hibernate once they lose at nominations. The space will clear up some more. I believe the political terrain will look very different by January 2019. To paraphrase Harold Wilson, a day is a long time in politics. Staying power will be crucial. It is those who can withstand till when it matters that will be counted. It is absolutely unwise to throw in the towel too early because you never know what will happen the next minute. What if Buhari is no longer contesting? Who can boast of the control of the minds of millions in the north? Will that not blast open the space? People should not be afraid of spending if it is about saving Nigeria. Let’s all keep working hard. There is also the issue of a rerun. INEC has planned for it. If Buhari is unable to win at first go, a lot can happen as many Nigerians may - without any prodding - rally around the guy who comes second. 

MY ASSESSMENT OF WHO IS WHO

Let me mention a few of the players and their strengths for now. If I was asked to choose anyone apart from myself, to represent the ‘technotician’/nation-builders group, I will choose Kingsley Moghalu. Apart from his vast experience and connections in the UN and as former CBN Deputy Governor, Kingsley has been working and spending hard on this. He has traveled extensively and is always on the move. He has that maturity and experience to hold his own in the middle of world leaders and local power-brokers. He has held the most townhall meetings so far and visited the most traditional chiefs and ex-leaders. He has access. My only disagreement with Kingsley’s economics is when he said we will run an ‘entrepreneurial capitalism’ and that a venture capital fund will be put in place to help us with the unemployment problem. No, I think the venture capital idea is never going to be enough for the depth of rot in the system and the tens of million stranded Nigerian youths, and plays into the trap of liberal economics which I know that he knows is flawed for our times. He should notice how many of our youths are out there smoking weed all over the place. We need something more fundamental and we must do this ourselves. As for entrepreneurial capitalism, well, we are not the USA and must never compare ourselves to a people who have been well-governed for centuries. We must do more than create entrepreneurs. We must establish the minimum standards for our people’s standard of living and pursue that vigorously. I will love to see him on this for I know that he knows better.

Sowore has also lived up to expectation. Or even beyond. And even though he is often seen as a hot-head ‘aluta’ warrior, Sowore is at his best when it comes to suggesting ideas that can make Nigeria work. He thinks well on his feet, is eloquent and has a way of diffusing tension in every environment he finds himself. One thing he is good at is his media. More than anyone in this group, he is not camera shy. He hugs the limelight and knows he must always be in the hearts and faces of people. I have seen many who have forgiven him for his controversial past. Sowore is going somewhere. If he has the backing of foreign governments, he may just cause an upset - like the Arab spring. This is because he is very anti-establishment and is not afraid to tell anyone off or embarrass them. He is the most-hated of all presidential aspirants and perhaps the most-feared by the establishment. The problem is that I saw how the Arab spring went and how deceptive such things are at their core. The Arab region is still as it was before the aborted spring. It was a mere experiment, costing thousands of lives. Sowore has revolutionary ideas but will find it hard to run government. Harder than I would find it by far. 

Fela Durotoye has a charming and disarming personality and is also not camera shy. He’s someone you’ll like to have as a friend and would make a great motivational president who can unleash the productivity of his people. He’s perhaps one of the best-looking of the lot. And that counts, especially with the female folk. He may not have immersed himself in deep economic stuff but is well-exposed enough to know what can and cannot work in Nigeria. Subject to the ‘magic’ going on in his political party ANN right now, and his ability to sort that out quickly, I’d say we keep an eye on Fela. He has the Obama factor. You want to see him at a rostrum. I’d beg him to have a more secular touch though. No illusions. A president is for everyone; pagan and believer. 

We also have many great guys in the fray. I have met very sound people like Comrade Anselm Eragbe, Dr Thomas-Wilson Ikubese, China Fagbenro-Byron, Mathias Tsado, Jaiye Gaskiya, Ahmed Buhari, Dr Mrs Elishama Ideh, and from afar, I greatly admire the energy and depth of Awwal Aliyu, Dr Israel Nonyerem Davidson, Dr. Tanko Yunusa, Prof. Sonaiya, among many others. I listened to a 20-minute interview of Donald Duke the other day and I think he’s really sound. Our ideas are so alike, save for some disagreements. Keep an eye on Duke if he could get a platform. I’d say Nigeria’s Got Talents. Nigeria’s Got Brains. I think it’s a great thing these people are stepping up at least for the world to see that we are not a nation of morons; that we have good people who are willing and able to take this nation forward from the position of permanent opprobrium, and underachievement… if only they could get the opportunity.

Of course one Tope Fasua is the best of all the candidates. For one, I am the only aspirant who has put his ideas out there while others are hedging. My strategy is slightly different because I tried to first build a party, open the space, get others to compete with me and across all levels of competition, before declaring fully. This has allowed me make up for not being a camera-hugger or some media personality. We will all be slugging it out come d-day, especially if it gets too difficult to find a singular contestant from amongst us. I have prepared an operations manual which covers all aspects of the economy. Mine is not another cheap manifesto that promises nonsense as we’ve always had. Mine is well-thought-through and I’m the custodian of this commonsense economics that will take Nigeria forward to where we need to be right now; an economics that seeks to unleash a positive atomic power by pragmatically jettisoning all the failed options we have applied and offering clever ways out; a fusion of the left and right wings of economics that works for our nation; perfectly propelled by the ANRP party ideology called CONSTRUCTIVE/POSITIVE PRAGMATISM. I find it tough to entrust this legacy to anyone else because we have been let down too often in the past. I have been told that my ideas will be stolen since I put then out there, but I responded that that is okay by me so long as the ideas are applied accurately and Nigeria gets better. 

Some of those ideas include the need to accelerate our budgets by looking at what even fellow African countries are doing, rejig allocation formulas to give more weight to local governments, cause accountability in government like happens in other countries, move for a central procurement agency in government like the GSA of USA, abolish silo mentality in government and promote shared services, take 50-70 million people out of poverty, and transform education by saddling higher institutions with solutions to our myriad social problems like electricity, transport , thereby using the same education to transform the country and so on. I talk FACTS, I have URGENCY, I bust MYTHS that have held us down, I am ready to face the DEVILS that have held this country down in spite of its potentials, and I think SYSTEMICALLY, linking all sectors of the economy together.

Mine is a REVOLUTION OF IDEAS because what we need in this space is no less than a revolution. I am not a fan of cameras but I’m getting used to it. Things will heat up in time. Nigeria should get ready for a rollercoaster season. It will surely be glorious. 

2019 WILL BE DIFFERENT. A TSUNAMI IS COMING.