Home sales are tumbling... What that means for investors
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Thanks to higher rates and valuations, home sales are tumbling
Interest rates are increasing, and so is the cost of a mortgage payment.
Combined with a rise in home values, this is?impacting new home sales in a meaningful way. According to a study from CNBC, the monthly payment for a new home in 2022 is?now $800 more than in 2019.
I would also note that the change does?not?include insurance or taxes.
For the first time since 2010, new home sales have fallen for four consecutive months. And single-family new home sales have cratered 25% from their level a year ago for only the 10th time in the last 56 years.
After similar signals, homebuilding stocks tended to suffer in the months ahead. Consumer discretionary stocks also consistently fell, especially industries like Home Furnishings and Home Improvement.
What the research tells us
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Is there any reason to be bullish?
Believe it or not, the economy is still objectively favorable.?Price action, inflation, interest rates, and seasonality are all "unfavorable" at the moment, but many historically reliable indicators are flashing green of late. This suggests the potential for a surprisingly strong rally in stocks in the months ahead.
Gold bugs are selling out
Gold mining stocks have been sold hard over the past couple of weeks.?The selling pressure has been enough to trigger an extreme reading in a Panic Breadth Composite.?How investors treat this latest dip should go a long way toward showing the potential risk versus reward for the months ahead.
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