Will home sales become more expensive? Property owners are increasingly alert to upcoming changes in the capital gains tax rate
Buyers remain cautious; even the recent September decline in the Euribor rate has failed to stimulate activity in the sluggish real estate market. Both buyers and sellers anticipate significant price shifts, but there is currently no economic justification for major changes in property values. In response to market stagnation, buyers are exploring alternative transaction methods. September saw a rise in property exchange listings, with sellers offering to swap apartments for larger properties or exchange land for houses, with additional compensation for value differences. On the other hand, sellers are focused on the impending changes to Personal Income Tax Law, which could impose an increased capital gains tax rate. These key trends in the housing market are highlighted in Latio Real Estate "Home Buyer Confidence Index."
"Home Buyer Confidence Index"* data for September:
·???????? 65 days – on average, it took this long to sell a home at the market price (65 – in August; 70 – in July; 70 – in June; 75 – in May; 75 – in April; 76 – in March);
·???????? 11% of units were sold within one month of advertisement publication (12% - in August; 8% - in July; 9% - in June; 9% - in May; 9% - in April; 9% - in March);
·???????? 18% of sellers have asked for a disproportionately high price for the market situation (in August - 17%; in July - 15%; in June - 17%; in May - 18%; in April - 19%; in March - 21%);
·???????? 64% of transactions were conducted without reliance on borrowing (in August - 61%; in July - 59%; in June - 52%; in May - 55%; in April - 53%; in March - 50%);
·???????? 21% of transactions** in Riga involved housing in new projects (July – 21%; June – 26%; May – 24%; April – 26%; March – 26%; February – 30%).
In September, the number of apartments available for purchase in Riga decreased by approximately 8%, with 4,953 units listed for sale. Of these, 45%, or 2,225 units, were located in series-type buildings in different neighbourhoods of the capital. Meanwhile, the number of apartments available for rent rose by 15%, bringing the total to just under 3,000. Nearly 40% of rental listings, or 1,105 units, were in series-type buildings on the outskirts of Riga. There were no significant price changes for indoor space of series-type units, with the average price per indoor square metre remaining at EUR 1,040. In the city centre, the average price per square metre was EUR 1,495, reflecting a slight decrease of 2%.
In September, 20 new apartments entered Riga’s primary market for new developments. In total, 1,410 units were available for purchase, representing 28% of the total apartment supply. Average listing prices for these properties remained stable at EUR 2,800 per square metre. A slight price increase was observed in registered transactions, where sale prices per square metre are nearing those listed in advertisements. However, while prices appear to have stabilized on a monthly basis, it would be premature to suggest a market recovery. The narrowing price gap can be attributed to the introduction of more affordable apartments and individual transactions.
In the secondary market for new developments, the average price per square metre was EUR 2,015 in September. In central Riga, transaction prices rose by 14%, reaching EUR 2,660 per square metre. This price increase was driven by a small number of high-value transactions and does not indicate a broader market trend.
Activity in the regional markets also continues. In Jelgava, there has been strong demand for rental apartments. Interest remained high for housing in new developments. Potential buyers are also actively exploring options in the secondary market, and in cases where serious buyers emerge, sellers have shown flexibility in lowering prices. A similar trend has been observed in Vidzeme, where sellers who were previously resistant to price adjustments are now more open to discussing larger discounts. In Valmiera, the local municipality has launched construction of a new multi-apartment building for rent, which will offer 120 units. Applications for potential tenants will open in February next year.
A striking example of misguided expectations can be seen in the Jūrmala real estate market. Despite an increase in supply, most properties are illiquid and significantly overvalued compared to the market reality. While the listings may give buyers the impression of having a wide selection, a deeper analysis reveals that few options are truly viable in terms of price, location, and quality. Even the few suitable properties often come with hidden issues or unique challenges. Some owners, whose properties - both detached houses and apartments - have lost nearly half their value, remain unwilling to sell, despite knowing they can no longer afford to maintain their luxurious spa town residences.
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“Clients considering the purchase of properties in prestigious Jūrmala tend to be financially stable buyers who can complete transactions without relying on mortgages. They take their time and carefully evaluate their options, not rushing into decisions until they are confident in their long-term choice,” explains Jelizaveta Celnokova , manager of Latio’s Jūrmala branch. She adds that the market is also influenced by other key factors - while overall demand has decreased, the remaining interested buyers are leveraging their position to secure the best deals and discounts.
The current mood in the real estate market is not particularly optimistic, as reflected in a recent study by SEB banka. More than half of respondents, especially those in Zemgale, anticipate rising property prices in the coming year, while only 10% expect a price decline. Buyers’ scepticism is partly driven by upcoming amendments to the Personal Income Tax Law, which will raise the capital gains tax rate from 20% to 25.5%. Capital gains are calculated by deducting the purchase price and any investments made during ownership from the property's sale price. Latio experts predict that these tax changes will not favour the housing market, as sellers are likely to increase property prices to offset the higher tax burden. However, these tax changes could also prompt undecided sellers to act more quickly, considering the law’s transitional provisions. For transactions initiated by December 31, 2024, but not completed within the same tax year, sellers can apply the previous 20% tax rate until 2027 -provided the property was purchased through instalment payments. Additionally, exemptions that relieve certain properties from personal income tax will remain in effect. Sellers not eligible for these exemptions and facing significant taxable income are encouraged to expedite their sales.
"According to experience, we know that such conditionally happy cases are rare - more often, objects with complicated ownership rights and unorganized documents end up in the hands of real estate specialists. Dealing with such homes creates an unexpected headache for the seller, and the upcoming tax changes will be another pain point for many - therefore, owners who are considering selling in the near future have another additional factor to consider - tax changes," explains "Latio" Head of the legal department, Mārīte Lip?a , predicting greater excitement among sellers in the near future.
The impact of the new amendments on sellers will vary depending on individual circumstances. Several factors determine how much tax will be payable when selling a property, such as whether the home is the owner's declared residence, whether it was inherited, whether it is the only real estate owned, and how long the current owner has held the property. In the most favourable cases, no capital gains tax is due - for instance, if the property has been owned by the seller for at least five years and has been their declared place of residence for the last 12 months.
"However, based on experience, we know that such relatively fortunate cases are rare. More often, properties with complex legal titles and incomplete documentation are brought to the attention of real estate professionals. Transacting such property creates unexpected challenges for sellers, and the upcoming tax changes will add yet another pain point for many. Therefore, property owners who are considering selling in the near future have one more factor to take into account - the tax changes," explains Mārīte Lip?a. She anticipates that these factors, along with the tax amendments, will cause increased activity among sellers in the near future.
*For residents to be better informed about the current situation in the real estate market, “Latio” publishes the “Home Buyer Confidence Index” on a monthly basis, summarizing the five most descriptive indicators of the market situation over the past month.
**Data on transactions registered in the Land Register in August.
Additional information:
Latio | Market Analyst
E-mail: [email protected]
www.latio.lv