Home Made Evidence for Global Warming

Average Annual Temperature Analysis in 20 Major US Cities from 1960 to 2016

3 minutes reading / by Michael C. Rubin

1. Introduction

To be clear from the beginning. I am NOT a climate scientist. It was just a little weeknight play around with some temperature data set of 20 US cities from the last 60 years. I wanted to see if a ‘non-climate scientist’ like me can find some evidence for Global Warming. You bet! The evidence is striking. 1,76°K of average annual temperature increase over all 20 cities. In the extreme case of Phoenix, we see a striking 4,53°K warming since 1960, with a determination (R^2) of 0,778.

Even considering that we might have ignored several special factors and natural variations and that cities might not be perfectly representative for the globe, there is literally no way of arguing against global warming!

So, I decided to throw the stats and graphs in a document and publish it. The respective data set contains daily average temperatures for each day since 1960 and for each city. It is coming from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), provided by the MIT. I used an algorithm to first extract and calculate the average annual temperature for each city and year. Then I ran three different regression models, polynomial degree 1 (linear), polynomial degree 2 (quadratic) and polynomial degree 3 (cubic) for each city and calculated the averages and extremes. Finally, I chose for each city the best fitting model to display below, i.e. the one with the highest R^2, and if the difference is small, I chose lower degree, i.e. the simpler model.

Both data set and python code are available in appendix. Convince yourself!

2. Average Warming Over All Cities

Average annual temperature increase from 1960 to 2016 over all 20 cities:

• Average Temperature 1960: 15,325°C
• Average Temperature 2016: 17,085°C
• Total Warming: 1,76°C
• Average Evidence (R^2): 0,412

3. Extremes

(based on cubic model with highest R^2)

Highest: PHOENIX

• Average Temperature 1960: 20,17°C
• Average Temperature 2016: 24,70°C
• Total Warming: 4,53°K
• Evidence (R^2): 0,778

Lowest: CHARLOTTE

• Average Temperature 1960: 15,23°C
• Average Temperature 2016: 15,93°C
• Total Warming: 0,698°K
• Evidence (R^2): 0,253

4. Regression Analysis per each City

(best fit model between polynomial 1, 2 and 3 – in case of no/small IG opt for lower degree) 

“THE HIGHEST FORM OF PURE THOUGHT IS IN MATHEMATICS” - PLATO 

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Appendix:

Data Set:

https://1drv.ms/u/s!AoWII6HAhLgYidxh9ARzsCX12oLwYQ?e=7dwIjj

Python Code to run analysis:

https://1drv.ms/u/s!AoWII6HAhLgYidxgG_RLF3tDfQL8tw?e=qDTThx