A holiday conversation about climate change? Yes, please.

For some of us, holiday gatherings are difficult. Connecting with family and friends who don’t always share our values or views can be stressful. Many of us steer clear of talking politics and religion with family members to avoid contentious discussions or outright conflict. Whether we are conscious of it or not, climate change has been added to that list of taboo subjects.

I want to provide you with scientific evidence why a holiday discussion about climate change has a better chance of success, and less chance of conflict, than you might think. Then I’d like to equip you with some of what I’ve learned in 20 years communicating with skeptics of climate science.

Here are two scientifically valid reasons why this conversation isn’t a crazy idea.

First, we underestimate how many others think it’s real.

A recent survey by Yale and George Mason Universities shows that, regardless of demographics or political affiliation, Americans consistently underestimate how many other Americans accept the reality of climate change. On average, those surveyed believed only 54% of other Americans accept the reality. It’s actually much higher, 69% of Americans in one survey and 73% in another accept the reality of climate change.

As always, human understanding is more complex than one “average” number. A deeper of people’s beliefs by the same universities showed acceptance of climate science is lacking: 38% are not even certain climate change is human caused, and only 20% understand the strength of the scientific consensus. As you might logically expect, the report also shows acceptance of climate change varies substantially across geographies, political affiliations and age groups.

Clearly there is an opening to talk – and still a lot to talk about.

Second, the act of talking about it increases the acceptance of its reality.

In my work, I have found that engaging in discussions about the factual nature of climate science often opens people’s minds to the reality of the crisis. Sounds pretty obvious. But, I mean the discussion itself. Beyond presenting fact-based arguments, I have always believed it is one person’s acceptance of the science as real that has the power to change another person’s mind.

And, very recently, a scientific study by respected universities has confirmed this to be true.

In a recent scientific study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, a team of researchers from the Universities of Cambridge, Yale and George Mason studied peoples’ attitudes on climate change. They studied how those attitudes were changed by discussions with family and friends.

The authors concluded that simply engaging in a discussion about climate change increased a person’s belief in the scientific reality.

The elements of the discussion certainly matter – you need something to talk about or its not much of a discussion. But the study found content did not matter as much as the simple act of engaging in the discussion. Others accept the reality of climate science when they learn that people they know accept the reality of climate science.

Common Objections from Deniers of Climate Science

If you choose to begin a conversation with your friends and family about climate change, even just a start, someone is going to raise one of the common false objections. Below are the false objections I often hear in my work, along with my initial responses.

It’s really cold outside! Yes, it is. As the entire planet warms, atmospheric circulation that driving weather patterns is changing. We are experiencing increased variations in the jet stream and that is, by itself, alarming. The jet stream is dipping farther south during winter. Part of our “new winter normal” looks to include periods when a deep dip in the jet stream brings very large, very cold arctic air masses much farther south than in the recent past. Yes, it is very cold. Yes, this is climate change.

There is no consensus among scientists. Actually, 97% of climate scientists agree climate is occurring and is human-caused. That consensus is as close to unanimous as we ever get in science. The Petition Project has collected statements from 31,487 American scientists, including 9,029 PhDs, attesting to the reality of climate change, the human cause, and the need to act immediately and dramatically.

It’s overblown - a 1.5oC or 2oC rise in average global temperature cannot be that significant. We are already seeing dramatic changes – bitter winter cold, severe summer heat waves, stronger storms, more intense rain events, unprecedented wildfires – and we haven’t even reached those levels. Our current path is a 3.2otemperature rise. There are no positive changes that result from climate change. None.

We can just adapt. We certainly need to adapt because some amount of climate change is already baked into our children’s future. Taking no action is not a viable option. If we choose to do nothing, we know a lot will be lost. Failure to act is simply passing the burden to future generations. We don’t know all the impacts. But if we fail to act now we know there will be dramatic alterations to every ecosystem on the planet. We will lose a great many species and special places we love.

The climate has also changed in the past. Which has almost no relation to today. The Earth is always changing but does so slowly. More than once in the distant past, when the Earth was a very different place, cataclysmic changes caused rapid warming and mass extinctions. Today is different because we are warming the planet 20 to 50 times faster than the most drastic historical rates. The only similarity between the past and today is that abrupt warming outpaced the ability of species to adapt, resulting in planet-wide mass extinctions.

It is not caused by humans. Every other possible contributor to the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere is inconsequential in comparison to the amount of CO2 being emitted from the burning of fossil fuels. Natural cycles emit and recover CO2. But those are relatively small amounts and would not result in the warming we are already seeing. It’s not volcanoes. It’s humans burning fossil fuels.

The atmosphere is too big for us to change. Earth is just under 8,000 miles in diameter. The vast majority of humans, and other species inhabiting our planet, live in a thin layer of atmosphere about 2.3 miles (or 12,000 feet) thick. It is very thin and very fragile, and it is all we have to keep us and the rest of the species on our planet alive.

Other countries need to do their share. In fact, many are. India is on track to meet its commitments under the Paris Climate Agreement by closing coal power plants and installing renewable energy. Germany’s energy supply will exceed 80% renewables in the next decade. Other countries, including Sweden, Finland, Norway, Costa Rica, Morocco, The Gambia are making great progress. Mexico, Canada, the U.K. and many European countries have imposed taxes on carbon. What is lacking is leadership from us - the largest economy on the planet.

Renewable energy is expensive. Solar is already cheaper than coal. By 2030, because the cost of wind and solar will continue to drop, coal powered electrical generation will end in the U.S. and the typical natural gas power plant will operate less than 65% of the time.

They want to take away our burgers! Don’t worry. Ending the entire beef industry - and the dairy industry - would not put a major dent in the climate crisis. All animal husbandry in the U.S. accounts for 3% of greenhouse emissions (including cattle and their digestive emissions of methane). Beef is a subject of discussion because reducing its consumption is a step everyone can take. Good for you; good for the planet.

They want to ban airlines! Emissions from air travel currently account for 2.5% of global emissions. But air travel is growing rapidly, especially in nations with developing middle classes, e.g. India, China, and Turkey. Currently, air travel - for people and packages - is a real problem without a viable solution.

They want to take away my pickup truck! The current economic marketplace already puts a high price on energy intensive vehicles. The cost will simply go up. In a capitalist economy you can drive a gas guzzling pickup if you are willing to pay for it. Or, GM, Ford, Tesla and the Ford-Amazon partnership Rivian will introduce all-electric pickups in the next three years.

This is serious – but your discussion needs to be positive.

We are at a critical juncture in our need to address climate change. The most recent science tells us we have underestimated the speed of change. Meaning we have a decade to reduce carbon emissions dramatically.

Over the years making a large number of climate presentations, my talks have ranged from hopeful to brutally-honest to debilitatingly-bleak. For decision-makers in business and government, I think absolute brutal-honesty mixed with a bleak-outlook is appropriate.

A holiday conversation with friends and family is not the time for a bleak discussion… 

Aggressive arguments simply push people further into their opposite corners.

The goal is to engage, find a point of common understanding, then present something positive to further open another person’s mind.

Please be hopeful. Simply achieving acceptance of the science of climate change, in an individual who was formerly unconvinced, is progress.

Things that give me hope.

What follows are some of the things I use in my presentations to bring some hope to the discussion. I believe these are things you might find useful in your discussion.

Insurance companies now consider climate change to be their greatest risk. In 2019, the actuaries who assess risk declared climate change to be the greatest source of insurance risk. It becomes very hard to deny the existence of climate change when the insurance industry has determined it to be their greatest source of risk.

Green investing is a real thing – a really BIG thing. Over $14 trillion is currently invested in funds that consider the issues of environmental, social and governance in their investments. That is more than 25% of the total value of all professionally managed investment funds. This is progress because investors are owners. Owners make decisions. Companies respond when their owners demand action on climate change.

Local and state governments are taking action. In the near term, the federal government will not act. But many city and state governments are acting. Twenty-four U.S. states and territories have formed the bipartisan U.S. Climate Alliance to cooperate on climate change. California has mandated that all newly built housing must include solar power. There are certainly examples in your city or state.

Markets are reacting. Over the past two decades, a series of factors directly and indirectly related to climate change have driven a dramatic evolution in global markets and products. Global markets have responded to create demand for more environmentally sustainable products. Businesses have responded to that market demand by delivering: LEDs, wind turbines – large and small, tidal power, residential roof-top solar panels, electric cars, charging stations, fuel cell cars and trucks, carbon neutral carpet, new types of batteries, ride sharing, plant based replacements for meat, and more.

Energy markets are moving away from fossil fuels. Coal isn’t obsolete only because it’s bad for the environment. Coal is dying because the energy market is reacting to the lower cost of wind and solar. As the cost of wind and solar continue to drop, the viability of 40-year investments in natural gas powered electric generating plants is increasingly problematic.

Climate change is a business reality – and a business opportunity. Climate change can be expressed as the sky is falling – or as the greatest business opportunity we will ever be presented. Every current product or service will be affected. The low-carbon products delivered to the market to this date are just a start. There will either be a low-carbon version of everything we currently buy or something entirely new invented to replace it with lower climate impact. The business opportunities for lower and zero carbon innovation are nearly endless.

Jobs in renewable energy are a major driver of employment growth in the economy. Currently, there are 3.3 million jobs in the renewable energy industry. That is three times as many as all the fossil fuel industries (coal, oil, natural gas) combined. Jobs in manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of solar, wind, wave and geothermal are growing much faster than the rest of the economy. And they are good paying jobs – some in the community where you have your discussion.

Young people are involved - emphatically. It is wonderful, and sad at the same time, to see young people - even elementary school kids - advocating for their future. That activism likely won’t end when they are able to vote - because it is they who will have to live with the consequences of our failure to address climate change.

All this progress is great, as far as it goes. But science tells us we need to make an incredibly deep transition in almost every aspect of society. And science tells us it needs to be completed in the next decade. Buckle up for a lot of change.

Please start a conversation.

It is clear the impacts of climate change are not over the horizon – but upon us now. We are all experiencing some form of that change. What we all see in our daily lives is increasingly serious and worrisome.

Climate change is a reality we all share. It is also a reality that 7 out of 10 Americans accept. Many do so silently. Many just don’t know what to say. It’s time to break the silence.

If you do have a climate change conversation with friends or family, I would be interested to hear about your experience. You can reach me at [email protected].

Author’s Biography

Phil Berry has spent 35 years in senior leadership of corporations and governments, creating programs to reduce environmental impacts and address human rights. Currently, Phil consults to corporate teams to help decarbonize the supply chains that create their products. Over the past 20 years, Phil has presented on the subject of climate change to more than 300 audiences on five continents.