HOLD THE PHONE- public opinion polls in the spotlight.

This weekend I am off to Canberra to attend The World Association for Public Opinion Research(WAPOR) Asia Pacific Sixth Annual Conference of Australia.

The WAPOR Asia Pacific Sixth Annual Conference will be hosted and co-organized by the Centre for Social Research and Methods (CSRM) at The Australian National University, with the Local Conference Chair Prof. Nicholas Biddle, Associate Director of CSRM and 2023 WAPOR Asia Pacific Conference Chair Prof. Holli Semetko (Emory University, USA).

The Conference Theme is Public Opinion Research and the Social, Political, Security &Technology Challenges facing the Asia and Pacific Region. The conference focuses on public opinion research and the social, political and security challenges facing the Asia and Pacific region in our technology-driven world.

Presentation topics include but are not limited to social research methodology, applications and techniques, public opinion research, traditional and new venues and vendors, disinformation, misinformation AI & and conspiracy theories, political campaigning, elections & voting behaviour, and social media, advertising and online influence campaigns.

In the run-up to the next Australian federal election, it is expected several polling companies will conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote and likely contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote.

What is unlikely to appear is any sign that the media-managed pollsters will share the fact that they no longer have any way of representing public opinion as they are now facing the reconstruction of the phone survey as the method error makes nonsense of sampling.

Take for example the claims of the after-dark brigade that Dutton is now an equal chance of making Albo a one-time PM on the back of a nationwide rejection of the Voice for Indigenes, fear of terrorists being released in our streets and revolt of the suburbanites that have replaced Liberals in the only poll that counts.

According to Newspoll Dutton is equal with Albo and the Labor Party is trembling in anticipation of a collapse of its primary vote. Sky After Dark is calling for a return to the Abbott three-word slogan approach of lock them out and lock them up. Newspoll headlines say "ALP’s fortunes dive, voters abandon PM"

A federal Newspoll, conducted November 20–24 from a sample of 1,216, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50 after preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (down four), 13% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (up two).

In the final Newspoll taken before the October 14 Voice referendum, Labor led by 54–46. Three weeks ago, Labor’s lead had dropped to 52–48 and now it’s tied. This is the first time Labor has not led in Newspoll since June 2021.

Movements on leaders’ ratings were relatively modest, with Anthony Albanese’s satisfied rating down two to 40% and his dissatisfied rating up one to 53%, for a net approval of -13, down three points

The public has lost trust in these media-manipulated polls. When will these polling companies admit that they now rely on focus groups, post-poll adjustments and predictions that are so varied that they no longer represent the views of any electorate, let alone the nation.

Let's just look at one claim - that the nation does not support ATSI's contribution to our culture and heritage. A survey of three hundred thousand Australians aged 14+ over the last five years, conducted by Roy Morgan Research in every electorate found that three-quarters of all households accept that "Aboriginal culture is an essential component of Australian society. 72% of National voters agreed ( the lowest level of support) and 81% of Independent voters showed that the Referendum result moved in the same direction.

Given the After-dark call for a return to the Abbott/Credlin playbook, it is interesting to note that less than one in twenty-five per cent of voters support reducing the number of illegal migrants coming to Australia, less than ten per cent rate place managing Immigration and population growth in their top three priorities and less than one in six believe that the nation should focus on the Dutton themes of reducing crime and maintaining law and order.

It is time that the Senate establishes a Committee to call for a review of the findings of this WAPOR (whopper?) Conference and get the AEC to commission an independent national public opinion poll similar to those of the ANU that gives everyone a voice to parliament and establishes why the needs of families, especially those outside the capitals and the Canberra bubble are really wanting on the national agenda.what peole