HOGO April 2025

The April 2025 HOGO spread is currently trading near 14.2 cents in favor of the Heating Oil versus the Gasoil. That is down from the high of 15 cents seen one week ago. In addition, we see further resistance above that likely at the peak high seen on Jan. 20 at 17 cents.?

Support for the Heating Oil versus the Gasoil is possible at 13.0 and then 11.4 cents.

Momentum favors the Gasoil gaining and thus a more likely scenario for the price to weaken.

Some of the news stories and underlying developments we have seen favor the Gasoil gaining.

Benchmark diesel futures are showing signs of market tightness in Europe, as fuel traders continue to face supply pressures, as per Bloomberg reporting today. The most-immediate contracts on Tuesday hit the steepest backwardation — where barrels for prompt delivery are more expensive than those further down the curve — since March. The structure is often interpreted as a sign of limited supply relative to demand.Europe’s diesel supplies have been pressured by refinery outages — both planned and unplanned — in recent weeks.

January also saw a sharp drop-off in shipments into the European Union and UK, according to Vortexa Ltd. data compiled by Bloomberg.

Supply limitations in the U.S. are seen reducing the usual shipment of cargoes from the U.S. to Europe, as per Bloomberg reporting. "Cargoes diverting to the US, reverse arbitrage movements from Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp to PADD 1 are indicative of an undoubtedly tight US market.", as per Kpler analysis. Recent cold weather is also supportive for Europe’s market.

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