The Hockey Stick of agricultural development

If you were to try and graph out how technology shifts are experienced on a societal level and throughout history, you wouldn’t see a smooth line gradually building. Rather, it would look something like a hockey stick – an upward curve and then a big jump forward. Gradual gains suddenly followed by exponential leaps.

Interestingly, this pattern of progress isn't unique to technology spaces either. My Syngenta colleague and world leading soil scientist Matt Wallenstein wrote about a similar way of thinking about changes in agriculture – punctuated equilibrium – in which change suddenly leaps forward, leaving behind evidence of its impact through the soil record. Lately, I’ve been talking and thinking a lot about the inflection point – the moment in which the status quo shifts and we see widespread adoption and implementation of new ways of working.

We are at this technological inflection point for agriculture – it's been driven by the emergence of new digital technology (particularly AI) on one side and increasing pressures on the global agricultural food system on the other. These are things like climate change, geopolitical instability as well as the urgent need for increased yields that don’t require further inputs that can have damaging environmental effects.

Despite significant advancements in agricultural technology and rapid change in recent years, the transformative impact of these developments often seems just out of reach. What triggers such inflection points? Consider a pivotal moment in Indian agriculture: a legislative change that allowed the widespread use of drones. This wasn't an innovation born solely from within the sector; rather, it was the convergence of available technology with new regulations. Suddenly, vast areas were opened up for drone usage, enabling countless farmers to employ these devices for precision spraying, weed detection, and land scouting. This example underscores how external factors, like policy shifts, can catalyze profound advancements in agriculture, leading to substantial and practical benefits for the farming community.

There is so much sophisticated technology in the agricultural sector that could well be transformative, and while we respond to shifts in politics and policy, we must prepare for other potential sources of what might catalyze the inflection point. ?Technology companies like Syngenta have a crucial role to play. First Syngenta’s scale and capacity mean that we don’t need to chase hype but can test new technology carefully and strategically, scaling up innovations that offer good business options as well as value and – most importantly --precise advice and actionable insights for our growers.

Secondly, we have a vast amounts of data that can be used to improve our current digital services, and this is something that has driven our work as a technology company for many years now. The Cropwise digital platform is a world-leading agronomic brain, and the new tools of AI and ML mean that it is easier than ever to interact with that brain.

Thirdly, we can focus on partnership – as I say again and again, when you are working on the world’s biggest and most complex problems you can never do it alone. When it comes to finding new tools we can’t just think of ourselves but must proactively build the ecosystem of new technologies that allows for access, adoption and scalability on a global scale. This means taking a holistic view of what is needed by growers.

A key word for discussions of ag-tech is autonomy – but this isn’t just about autonomous technology or farming equipment, but empowering growers to be autonomous, to find new and effective ways of maximizing their yields and improving the sustainability of their farms. ?I discussed all of this with Sarah Nolet on the ‘Ag-Tech... so what?’ podcast which you can listen to here.