Ho Ho No. The Inconvenient Truth About Christmas Advertising.
Bart Van de Vel
I'm in Advertising ?? Effie & Webby Judge, Marketing Academy Scholar, Doctoral Researcher & Futurist
"It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas..." in August. Yes, August. While Mariah Carey officially declares the season open on November 1st, advertisers are already flooding our screens with festive feels. And just like clockwork, marketing executives are once again convincing themselves that this year, their Christmas blockbuster will change everything.
From Apple's cinematic tearjerkers to Amazon's singing boxes, from Coca-Cola's trucks to McDonald's reindeer treats – the holiday commercial arms race is real, and it's getting earlier, bigger, and more expensive. In Britain alone, advertisers will spend ￡1.4 billion this Christmas to reach a population one-fifth the size of America's Super Bowl audience.
The Sugar Plum Fantasy
The stakes are enormous. For retailers like John Lewis, the Christmas season represents half of annual turnover. For supermarkets like Sainsbury's, premium holiday ranges drive their highest profit margins of the year. Even Coca-Cola, which has been claiming Christmas since the 1930s, sees a massive spike in volume just by associating soft drinks with celebration. The difference between winning and losing Christmas can be hundreds of millions of dollars.
Sometimes it works beautifully. Aldi's Kevin the Carrot has driven ￡618 million in sales over six years. When done right, holiday commercials can build brand equity, drive sales, and create genuine emotional connections that last beyond December.
But here's the uncomfortable truth nobody wants to admit: most holiday commercials are just expensive exercises in corporate FOMO. Every advertiser worth their salt now feels obliged to produce a tear-jerking blockbuster. The result? A tsunami of similar-looking ads that cost millions to make but run only once or twice.
The Distinctiveness Crisis
We've created a holiday-themed melting pot of mediocrity. Research shows consumers struggle to correctly associate advertisements with their respective brands – and that's in normal times. During Christmas, with every company following the same “proven” formulas, standing out becomes nearly impossible.
Think about it. Every brand uses identical emotional triggers – nostalgia, family bonding, giving. Every ad features the same heartwarming moments, happy families, and focus on togetherness. It's no wonder consumers see holiday commercials as interchangeable. They are.
And while we marketers can't wait for the race to the best commercial to begin, nobody else cares. Not one bit. Research shows only 26% of consumers embrace the Christmas emotion and commercialization – the majority actually resents it. Even more telling? When people love your Christmas ad, it doesn't mean they'll love your brand. In fact, consumers can thoroughly enjoy your festive mini-movie while still actively disliking your company.
So it's no surprise that according to System1, half of all ads aired in November failed to generate any short-term impact. Zero. Nada. Nichts. All those emotional stories, all those massive budgets, all that effort to be first... and nothing to show for it.
The Case for Christmas Classics
But here's where it gets interesting. While we're all chasing the next viral hit, some of the most effective holiday ads are the ones that barely change. Coca-Cola's trucks have been rolling since the 1990s. Hershey's Kisses have been playing "We Wish You a Merry Christmas" since 1989. M&M's "They do exist!" has been making us laugh since 1996.
These aren't just Christmas ads – they're distinctive brand assets that happen to be about Christmas. They work because they're true to the brand, not just true to the season.
And 2024 proves this point beautifully. The most notable trend this year is consistency, with brands either re-airing past creative or repurposing brand characters. Look at Cadbury bringing back their "Secret Santa Postal Service," or Coca-Cola's reimagined "Holidays Are Coming." These ads are generating some of the highest effectiveness scores ever seen. Even Aldi continues to bring back their Christmas Carrot… because it works!
The Gift That Keeps On Giving
So what's your new year's resolution for 2025? If it's creating holiday advertising that works, here's your Santa's wishlist:
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Be Distinctive. If your ad could be for any brand with a different logo at the end, start over. Research shows lack of brand connection actively harms effectiveness. This isn't about making the most emotional Christmas ad - it's about making the most you Christmas ad.
Stay True. Your Christmas ad should feel like your brand dressed up for the holidays, not your brand in costume. Think about how Coca-Cola has owned their red trucks for decades, or how Aldi's Kevin the Carrot feels perfectly aligned with their playful, value-driven brand personality.
Time it Right. Understand your market and its cultural context. In the Philippines, Christmas season officially starts September 1st with Jose Mari Chan replacing Mariah Carey as the herald of the season - it's deeply embedded in their culture. But in Manchester? Starting your campaign in August just makes you look desperate.
Build Assets. Create distinctive elements you can own and use year after year. Coca-Cola's trucks have been rolling since the 1990s. Hershey's Kisses have been playing "We Wish You a Merry Christmas" since 1989. And look at what Aldi achieved with Kevin the Carrot - millions in sales by building a consistent character that people actually look forward to seeing again.
Consider Culture. Christmas means different things to different people. Some celebrate early, some late, some not at all. Your campaign needs to respect these differences. More importantly, it needs to respect your brand's role (or lack thereof) in these celebrations.
The key to all of this? Consistency beats creativity when it comes to Christmas. The most successful brands this year aren't the ones with the biggest budgets or the most tears - they're the ones who stayed true to themselves and built on what they already owned.
The Final Carol
Here's the liberating truth nobody wants to admit: You don't need a Christmas blockbuster. You don't need to win the race to be first. You don't need to make people cry. You need advertising that works.
And guess what? That's exactly what this year's data is telling us. The brands winning Christmas in 2024 aren't the ones with the most expensive ads or the earliest starts. They're the ones who stayed true to themselves. They're the ones who built on their existing assets instead of chasing viral fame. They're the ones who understood that Christmas is about their customers, not their creative ambitions.
Because here's what all the research really tells us: making people cry with your Christmas ad doesn't mean they'll buy from you. Creating emotional response without brand connection is just expensive entertainment. And in a world where only 26% of consumers embrace Christmas commercialization, maybe it's time to stop trying so hard to be special and start trying to be yourself.
Nobody cares about being first to Christmas. Nobody cares about your acoustic cover of that pop song. Nobody cares about your slow-motion snowfall.
But they might care about what you're selling – if you show up at the right time, with the right message, as yourself.
The views expressed in this article are my own and don't reflect the official position of any company I am currently or was previously affiliated with. Examples and insights are drawn from publicly available research and my personal observations as an industry professional.
Research Sources