THE HISTORY OF TRANSPORTATION
Ir. Martijn C. de Kuijer
Electrical engineer, Sustainability Nerd, Columnist, Founder of Greenchoicess, Senior Construction Manager @ Pilot Construction Sdn Bhd
Future of Mobility: Transportation Innovation
The future of mobility is shaped by groundbreaking advancements in technology and evolving societal needs. Innovations in electrification, connectivity, and automation are revolutionizing transportation, making it more sustainable, efficient, and intelligent. Emerging business models and consumer preferences are driving this transformation, alongside pilot projects that test new solutions in real-world markets. These developments promise not only improved accessibility and environmental sustainability but also a reimagining of how people and goods move across urban and rural spaces. As mobility evolves, it offers the potential to create smarter, greener, and more equitable transportation systems for all.
Evolving Landscapes in Modern Mobility
The mobility industry is undergoing a once-in-a-century transformation driven by advancements in technology, including electrification, connectivity, and automation. This revolution is further fueled by innovative business models, evolving consumer demand, and the scaling of commercial market pilots. These factors are enabling groundbreaking advancements and shaping the future of mobility innovation.
The ongoing transformation of mobility is a monumental shift characterized by the rise of Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Shared (ACES) vehicles, along with advancements in communications, Mobility-as-a-Service models, and innovative vehicle designs. This transition leverages emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence, blockchain, robotics, advanced data analytics, and the Internet of Things, offering unprecedented opportunities to modernize transportation.
The section evaluates the promises and challenges of deploying these technologies at scale, emphasizing their potential to address societal issues, such as improving safety, enhancing system flexibility, increasing accessibility, and reducing environmental impacts. While the primary focus is on passenger mobility, the multi-purpose nature of mobility systems also highlights their application in commercial goods transportation.
The future of mobility holds the potential to either simply rearrange the current landscape or usher in a transformative era of exponential benefits. This evolution hinges on integrating and scaling these technologies to achieve widespread improvements in how people and goods move.
Autonomous Vehicles
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) use advanced technologies like sensors, cameras, LiDAR, radar, and software to replace or assist human drivers, promising safer, more efficient, and environmentally friendly mobility. Despite decades of research and significant investments—over $160 billion in the U.S. alone—progress toward fully autonomous systems has been slower than anticipated, leading to public skepticism and backlash. Early excitement about AVs' potential benefits, such as reduced accidents, lower emissions, and improved mobility for disadvantaged groups, remains valid but unmet due to technological, financial, and regulatory challenges.
Key challenges include outdated regulations designed for human-driven vehicles, inconsistent federal leadership in the U.S., and uneven deployment of AV technologies. While the European Union has made strides in creating frameworks for automated systems, the U.S. lags in implementing federal legislation to standardize AV testing and deployment. This regulatory gap has shifted decision-making to states and municipalities, creating inconsistencies and slowing broader adoption.
Technological barriers also hinder AV scalability, including the need for advancements in infrastructure, communication systems, and integration with existing mobility networks. Meanwhile, companies continue to focus on developing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) as a near-term solution. Despite setbacks, AVs are gradually being deployed in limited commercial settings, showcasing their potential for transforming passenger and freight mobility. However, achieving widespread adoption requires addressing regulatory gaps, improving enabling technologies, and fostering public trust.
Automotive Connectivity
The era of software-defined vehicles has emerged, enabled by advanced connectivity and distributed communications infrastructure. By 2030, around 95% of new vehicles globally will be connected, up from 50% in 2021, according to McKinsey. This connectivity integrates telematics, infotainment, and C-V2X (Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything) systems, fostering a safer, more efficient, and intelligent mobility system. Vehicles are increasingly capable of over-the-air updates, offering repairs and feature enhancements without physical intervention, and providing consumers with experiences akin to personal smart devices.
North America leads in connected vehicle technology adoption, leveraging advancements like 5G, C-V2X, and future networks for integration with automation and electrification. However, barriers include industry and public confusion over connectivity terminology (e.g., C-V2X vs. V2V or V2G) and challenges in monetizing vehicle data. Progress requires collaboration among automakers, technology vendors, public agencies, and policymakers to develop interoperable connectivity standards and partnerships.
Public fleets can demonstrate the benefits of connected systems, showcasing low-latency, high-bandwidth platforms enabled by emerging networks like 5G and 6G. Accelerating deployment and public adoption can create a truly smart mobility system, reducing accidents, congestion, and environmental impact while enhancing travel efficiency and sustainability.
Vehicle Electrification
Electric vehicles (EVs) are central to the green transition, addressing climate change, energy security, and reducing emissions. Although prices are falling and adoption is rising, there are challenges in accelerating EV adoption, particularly due to battery technology, infrastructure, and affordability. EVs produce zero tailpipe emissions, making them key to future mobility and solving energy challenges, but achieving large-scale adoption has faced setbacks similar to autonomous vehicles, with high consumer skepticism.
In the U.S., President Biden's executive order aims for 50% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030, aligning with efforts from major automakers. However, meeting this target requires further action, as EV sales are projected to account for 30% of new car sales by 2030 without additional measures.
The shift to EVs offers benefits such as reducing oil dependence, improving air quality, creating jobs, and saving consumers money. However, obstacles remain, including the high upfront cost of EVs, the need for minerals like lithium and cobalt for batteries, and building the infrastructure to support widespread EV use. Consumer adoption is hindered by the high initial cost of EVs (around $64,000) compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Additionally, financing and ownership costs, including insurance and maintenance, are substantial, making affordability a significant barrier.
The demand for minerals required for EV batteries is expected to increase significantly by 2040, with China currently dominating the global supply chain. The U.S. faces challenges in ensuring resilient and sustainable access to these critical materials. While recycling could help, it is insufficient to meet growing demand in the short term. Strategic investments, such as those in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), are helping to boost U.S. production of EVs and batteries, but China’s sustained investments over the past decade present a significant competitive challenge.
Mobility-as-a-Service
Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is a modern transportation concept that reimagines how people and businesses access mobility solutions. Instead of focusing on specific modes of transportation like cars, buses, or trains, MaaS puts users at the center, prioritizing their needs for convenience, efficiency, and flexibility.
Advantages of MaaS
Challenges in Scaling MaaS
MaaS in Action
Urban areas have seen growth in on-demand services like ride-hailing, bike-sharing, and car-sharing, which are often bundled into MaaS platforms. These platforms aim to streamline mobility, but inconsistent collaboration between public and private sectors has limited their impact in some regions.
MaaS has the potential to revolutionize transportation by simplifying how people move, but achieving its full promise requires overcoming technical, economic, and operational hurdles. The combination of ride-hailing, micromobility (e.g., bikes and scooters), and car-sharing forms the backbone of MaaS platforms, which continue to evolve with advancements in digital technology and urban planning.
Ridehailing
Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) like Uber and Lyft have transformed on-demand transportation by offering ridehailing services, where passengers book a direct ride via apps or websites. This differs from ridesharing, which involves carpooling with multiple stops to pick up and drop off other riders. While some TNCs offer both, ridehailing has become far more popular, overshadowing ridesharing.
Since their emergence in 2010, TNCs have disrupted the traditional taxi industry, growing rapidly and becoming a preferred choice for millions globally. However, despite their popularity, profitability has been elusive due to:
In August 2023, Uber became the first TNC to post an operating profit, driven by strong demand for its ridehailing and food delivery services. Currently, 36% of Americans have used a TNC service, with 26% using them monthly, highlighting the demand for convenient mobility.
TNCs are evolving into "super apps", offering integrated services like car, bike, and scooter rentals, food and grocery delivery, and even flight booking. As private sector-driven solutions, TNCs are poised to play a central role in advancing sustainable, efficient, and user-friendly transportation systems, especially in regions with limited public transit options.
Micromobility
The widespread availability of smartphones and electric motors has fueled a significant rise in micromobility options like bikes and scooters over the past decade. According to the National Association of City Transportation Officials, these services have facilitated over half a billion trips in the U.S. since 2010, encompassing both docked and dockless systems.
Initially, the dockless micromobility market experienced rapid expansion, with many start-ups and a surge in trip numbers. However, several challenges, such as difficulties in sustaining business models, regulatory constraints at the city level, and reduced travel demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, led to industry consolidation and fewer dockless offerings.
Despite these setbacks, recent data indicates that micromobility is rebounding strongly. Docked bikeshare systems have shown remarkable resilience, while dockless scooters are gradually recovering their ridership. This resurgence suggests the sector is once again on a path of robust growth.
Car Sharing
With personal cars sitting idle for more than 95% of the time, the concept of using a shared car as needed has emerged as a practical alternative to owning one. Initially, this model gained traction, with many providers—including fleet operators, peer-to-peer rental platforms, and legacy automakers—launching services. However, the industry encountered challenges similar to micromobility and TNCs, such as difficulties in monetizing services, navigating city regulations, and overcoming consumers' preference for personal car ownership. These challenges led to industry consolidation and limited the regional availability of such services.
A broader obstacle to Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) frameworks is balancing the individual goals of private companies with the need for interoperability and integration across systems. Despite these hurdles, the MaaS market is projected to surpass $230 billion globally by 2025. Although early adopters have struggled to demonstrate sustained revenue growth, they have significantly influenced the mobility landscape by advancing the conversation around integrated travel planning and offering viable alternatives to car ownership. This progress positions shared-use models as key components of future mobility solutions.
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